US prediction markets surge 5x in eight months, Blask reveal

New data from Blask reveals that branded demand for prediction markets in the United States has increased more than fivefold since August 2025, signaling a sustained resurgence in interest toward event-based trading platforms. To support deeper analysis of this fast-growing segment, Blask has also rolled out a dedicated prediction market analytics feature, enabling operators to track demand dynamics, competitive positioning, and regional distribution in real time.

Despite this rapid growth, the category has not yet reached its historical peak. Current demand levels remain approximately 49% below the all-time high recorded during the November 2024 US election cycle — a spike largely driven by a single, high-impact event.

From event-driven spikes to sustained growth

Unlike the sharp, short-lived surge seen in 2024, the current rally has developed steadily over eight consecutive months without a comparable macro trigger. This shift suggests a structural evolution of the category, moving from episodic attention toward more consistent user engagement. At the same time, the competitive landscape has consolidated rather than diversified.

A tightening duopoly

As of March 2026, Polymarket and Kalshi jointly account for approximately 94% of all branded demand in US prediction markets. Both platforms have strengthened their positions during the growth period, increasing their respective market shares while the overall category expanded.

State-level data reinforces this dominance. In Kansas, Polymarket controls 95.5% of branded demand, compared to Kalshi’s 3.5%, representing the most extreme imbalance. Louisiana shows the closest competition, with Polymarket at 59% and Kalshi at 35.3%. Across all states, however, the two operators overwhelmingly dominate user interest.

These insights are now directly accessible through Blask’s prediction market analytics, allowing operators to benchmark performance not just nationally, but at the state level where competitive dynamics can differ significantly.

Challengers remain marginal — but signals are emerging

Beyond the leading duopoly, the rest of the market accounts for just 6% of total branded demand. Myriad currently ranks as the closest competitor, holding under 1% share.

Meanwhile, Robinhood presents the fastest growth trajectory in the category, with a year-over-year increase of +983.4%. While its absolute share remains low at 0.24%, the momentum indicates potential early-stage positioning in the space.

Demand concentrated in key states

The expansion of prediction markets is national in scope, but demand remains highly concentrated geographically. California leads with 15.9% of total US branded demand, followed by New York at 10.8%. Together, these two states account for over a quarter of the entire category’s interest.

This geographic distribution further highlights the importance of granular analytics, as operators competing in prediction markets increasingly need localized insights rather than relying on aggregate national trends.

A maturing category

The latest data points to a category transitioning from volatility to structure. While prediction markets are still influenced by major real-world events, the current growth pattern suggests increasing baseline demand – and a competitive environment defined by scale rather than fragmentation.

As the market continues to evolve, the key question is no longer whether interest will return, but how it will be distributed – and whether new entrants can meaningfully challenge an increasingly entrenched duopoly.