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Nineteen years of data suggests a positive return on investment when blindly betting on underdogs of greater than 35 points in NCAA basketball matchups

According to research conducted by, a sports betting and education platform dedicated to helping bettors find the best odds available and maximize the value of their bets, there is significant oversight in bookmakers’ odds when a college basketball spread is greater than 35 points. The total number of 35+ spreads since 2003 peaked in 2021 with 26, and has since risen steadily over the time included in the study.

This data, spanning back to 2003 and covering more than 73,000 games, shows a bettor’s return on an underdog first becomes profitable at 35.5-points or more and is maximized in games when the point spread is 39.5 or more. The model shows a slight dip to a 62 percent cover rate when the line is +42 or more, but then takes a substantial leap to close to a 90 percent cover rate when a team is a more than a 45-point underdog.

“Bettors are conditioned to back the superior team in a lopsided matchup, but the data shows bookmakers are forcing them to pay a premium on the favorite in those instances,” said Will Armitage, CEO of “Overcoming the house edge is a tall order across all forms of gambling, which speaks to why it’s imperative that bettors equip themselves with the best information available, and properly leverage it on the rare occasion that a window of opportunity presents itself.”


Notable games this season (2021–22) when this phenomenon of underdogs covering the spread was observed:


Matchup                                             Final Score                Spread

Baylor vs. Northwestern State            104–68                        Baylor -39

Gonzaga vs. Dixie State                     97–63                          Gonzaga -40


Gonzaga vs. Alcorn State                   84–57                          Gonzaga -40

UConn vs. Coppin State                     89–54                          UConn -41.5

UConn vs. Maryland Eastern Shore   72–63                          UConn -35


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Affiliate Industry

BestOdds Signs Affiliate Partnership Agreements with Caesars and FanDuel


on, a leading sports betting and education brand, has signed affiliate-partnership agreements with Caesars and FanDuel, two of the major US online sports betting operators licensed in New York.

The partnerships will allow BestOdds to provide New York bettors with a wide array of tools, educational information and signup offers in the biggest US market to go live with legal online sports betting.

“The potential of the New York market is immense, as demonstrated by GeoComply data showing that more bets were struck in New York during its first weekend live than Pennsylvania and New Jersey combined. Our goal is to furnish Big Apple bettors of all types with actionable information, odds comparison tools, transparent sportsbook reviews and the best signup bonuses and promotions the industry has to offer,” Will Armitage, CEO of, said.

Using BestOdds signup bonuses, new users in the Empire State can receive a risk-free bet up to $1001 at Caesars, while FanDuel will refund a bettor’s first wager up to $1000 in free bets.


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