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Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare

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Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency

Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.

On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.

The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.

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To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).

Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.

In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.

In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?

Not enough data, captain

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But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.

Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.

Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season –  or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.

Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.

Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…

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In polls, we trust

In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.

If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?

Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.

And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.

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So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?

Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.

While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.

That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.

We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.

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And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.

His opponent is at 63%. Who will win? 

We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.

What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.

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Bragg Gaming Group

Bragg Gaming Announces Resignation of Chief Financial Officer

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Bragg Gaming Group Inc., a global B2B gaming technology and content provider, announced that Chief Financial Officer (CFO), Ronen Kannor, has notified Bragg’s board of directors (Board) that he will resign from his position to pursue other career opportunities, effective June 3, 2024. The Company confirms that the search for a replacement CFO has commenced.

Matevž Mazij, Chief Executive Officer and Chair of the Board, commented: “We thank Ronen for his dedication and commitment to Bragg over the past four years and for his unwavering service as a pivotal member of the leadership team.

“During his tenure as CFO, the Company has undergone huge positive transformation including being uplisted to the Toronto Stock Exchange, dual listed on the NASDAQ and successfully completing two acquisitions, all while reporting consecutive years of revenue, gross profit and adjusted EBITDA growth. We wish Ronen all the very best in his future endeavors.”

Ronen Kannor commented: “It has been an honor to be part of the Bragg team which has successfully navigated many challenges and continued to deliver consistent growth over the past four years. I thank the Board for their support throughout my time with Bragg, and I am now fully focused on ensuring a smooth handover to my successor.

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“Special thanks goes to my finance team, who work tirelessly to deliver the positive change and financial growth that the Company continues to achieve. I wish them and all of my colleagues continued success with Bragg now and in the future.”

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Canada

Rivalry Reports Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2023 Results

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  • Betting handle of $423.2 million in FY 20231 increased 82% year-over-year, while reducing marketing spend 15%.
  • Revenue of $35.7 million in FY 2023 increased 34%.
  • Gross profit of $16.2 million in FY 2023, up 66% year-over-year.
  • FY23 sets all-time records for average handle per customer, up nearly 30% year-over-year, average revenue per customer up 38% year-over-year, and record low cost of customer acquisition, down 15% year-over-year.
  • Total player registrations eclipsed 2 million in FY23 while extending Gen Z market leadership.
  • FY24 off to a strong start as the capital raised late Q4 is being effectively deployed – delivering strong KPIs, supported by betting margin trending toward a more than 20% increase over the average of FY23.
  • To meet growing consumer demand the Company is adding greater support for cryptocurrency and exploring implementation of adjacent crypto-enabled technologies.
  • Rivalry is seeing a rise in demand to license its in-house casino games, accelerating the advancement of its B2B vertical.
  • Company re-affirms guidance, anticipates achieving profitability in H1 2024.

Rivalry Corp. (the “Company” or “Rivalry”) (TSXV: RVLY) (OTCQX: RVLCF) (FSE: 9VK), the leading sportsbook and iGaming operator for Gen Z, today announced preliminary and unaudited financial results for the three and 12-month periods ended December 31, 2023. All dollar figures are quoted in Canadian dollars.

“Rivalry exited 2023 as an increasingly diversified company – both geographically and across our product suite,” said Steven Salz, Co-Founder and CEO of Rivalry. “Last year we gained meaningful traction in new segments such as traditional sports, casino, and fantasy, which is widening our opportunity set and positioning us for sustainable growth in the medium- to long-term. We’re happy to have finished the year with all-time high customer economics, diversified revenue streams, and a reinforced competitive moat around Gen Z betting entertainment and experiences.”

“During Q1 we have been strategically deploying capital from our fourth quarter investment in areas that are driving customer acquisition and revenue – such as amplifying proven marketing strategies, releasing higher margin products, and developing proprietary betting experiences – that we expect will begin materializing in our results throughout the first half of 2024 and beyond,” added Salz.

“Our operational excellence across product and brand marketing last year are seen across positive KPI trends and continued year-over-year growth. Ultimately, we are proving that we can acquire and retain a coveted Gen Z demographic through an entertainment-led product set, culturally relevant brand, and a team unafraid of pushing past a long-standing industry status quo.”

Preliminary Full-Year 2023 Highlights2

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  • Betting handle was $423.2 million in the year ended December 31, 2023, an increase of $190.4 million or 82% from $232.8 million in 2022.
  • Revenue was $35.7 million in 2023, an increase of $9.0 million or 34% compared to $26.6 million in the previous year.
  • Gross profit was $16.2 million in 2023, an increase of $6.4 million or 66% from $9.8 million of gross profit in 2022.
  • The Casino segment was a significant driver of growth in 2023, with revenues of $6.4 million up 92% from 2022, and representing 52% of betting handle in the year.
  • The Company expanded its casino offering significantly during 2023, including the release of a new original game Cash & Dash in September, entry into the slots category in October, and the launch of its iOS mobile app in Ontario, enhancing the mobile casino experience and its accessibility.
  • Diversified revenue streams through new segments including traditional sports, which has grown by 60% since FY22, and fantasy, highlighting the elasticity of Rivalry’s brand among Gen Z and broadening TAM.
  • Total operating expenses of $38.9 million in 2023 decreased by $1.0 million year-over-year. The decrease was driven by a reduction in marketing expense, offsetting increases in general & administration and technology & content expense incurred to support the growth of the business.
  • Net loss was $24.3 million for 2023, a reduction of 22% or $6.9 million from the net loss of $31.1 million in 2022.

Fourth Quarter 2023 Highlights

  • Betting handle for the three-month period ended December 31, 2023 was $85.2 million, an increase of $1.2 million or 1.5% from $83.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 while marketing spend decreased by 32%.
  • Revenue was $6.5 million in the Q4 2023, representing a decrease of $3.0 million or 32% from $9.4 million of revenue in Q4 2022 due to less favorable sportsbook outcomes compared against an abnormally favorable result experienced in Q4 2022. The Company notes that revenue as a percentage of betting handle was near the average achieved throughout FY23, highlighting the abnormally favorable margin outcome in the comparable quarter, Q4 2022.
  • Gross profit was $3.0 million in Q4 2023, a decrease of $2.0 million or 40% from $5.0 million of gross profit in Q4 2022. The year-over-year decline follows the relative margin impact noted previously. Gross profit as a percentage of betting handle in Q4 2023 was equal to the average in FY23. Rivalry is also pleased to note that its ongoing efforts to stabilize and improve margin are yielding results, with Q1 2024 trending toward a more than 20% improvement over the average in FY23.
  • Net loss was $9.0 million in Q4 2023, a reduction of $3.3 million compared to a net loss of $12.3 million in Q4 2022. Net loss adjusting for accruals, other non-cash items, and one-time expenses, would have been approximately $7.0 million.
  • On November 15, 2023, Rivalry strengthened its balance sheet with the announcement of a private placement offering of $14 million principal amount senior secured convertible debentures to scale several strategic verticals across marketing, product development, and geographic expansion.
  • Released Rivalry Ultimate Fan, a free-to-play NBA fantasy app, to acquire new users and engage existing customers within the product suite.
  • First-party game ‘Cash & Dash’ released in September demonstrated next generation appeal as it became the fifth most-played casino game on our platform and among the top ten highest-grossing by revenue with momentum carrying into Q1, creating downstream licensing opportunities for Rivalry’s IP.

Outlook

“The year ahead is rife with new, innovative product releases arriving in Q2 and continuing throughout 2024,” Salz added. “In addition to the strength of our core roadmap, we are in the process of unlocking what we believe to be two of the most material developments to our business model since launching Rivalry in 2018. The first is a B2B vertical to license our in-house developed games, and the second is exploration and development within the crypto ecosystem – each representing an impactful growth catalyst on our path to profitability this year.”

“I have never had more confidence in our product roadmap and what Rivalry is building this year. Apart from new products, original games, and proprietary features, we have been working to dial-up the overall feel and entertainment value of our core product to provide a tech-savvy, next generation customer with a tailored experience that is well-differentiated within the larger sports betting marketplace.”

Investor Conference Call

Management will host a conference call at 10:00 a.m. EDT on Friday, April 5, 2024 to discuss the Company’s preliminary unaudited year-end and fourth quarter 2023 financial results.

Dial-in: 800-717-1738 (toll free) or (+1) 289-514-5100 (local or international calls)
Webcast:         A live webcast can be accessed from the Events section of the Company’s website
A replay of the webcast will be archived on the Company’s website for one year.

Rivalry expects to file its audited financial statements and management discussion and analysis for the period ended December 31, 2023 by the end of April 2024. The documents will be available on SEDAR+ at sedarplus.ca, and on the Company’s website.

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Related Party Transaction

On April 17, 2022 the Company entered into a secured demand loan (the “Loan”) with Kevin Wimer, the Chief Operating Officer and a Director of the Company. Pursuant to the terms of the Loan, the Company loaned Mr. Wimer US$385,000 which amount bears interest at 3.2% per annum and was repayable on demand by the Company and in any event by April 17, 2024 (the “Maturity Date”). The Loan was entered into to assist Mr. Wimer with the funding of certain tax obligations and is secured by a pledge of Mr. Wimer’s subordinate voting shares of the Company. The Company announces today that it has entered into an amendment to the Loan (the “Loan Amendment”) to extend the Maturity Date to April 17, 2026. The Loan Amendment was approved by the non-interested directors of the Company.

Mr. Wimer is a “related party” of the Company within the meaning of Multilateral Instrument 61-101 – Protection of Minority Security Holders in Special Transactions (“MI 61-101“). As a result, the Loan Amendment is considered to be a “related party transaction” as such term is defined by MI 61-101. The Company is relying on an exemption from the minority shareholder approval requirement set out in MI 61-101 as the fair market value of the transaction does not exceed 25% of the market capitalization of the Company, as determined in accordance with MI 61-101. The Company did not file a material change report more than 21 days before entering into the closing of the Loan Amendment as the details of the Loan Amendment were not settled until shortly prior to the entering into thereof.

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Arthur Paikowsky

Playtech Supports ICRG’s Research on the Impact of Gambling on Under-served Groups in the US and Canada

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Playtech has provided support for the International Center for Responsible Gaming’s (ICRG) research program. The ICRG, a global pioneer and leader in gambling disorder research and education, has been conducting stringent competitions for research grants since 1996.

The ICRG, overseen by an independent Scientific Advisory Board comprising leading addiction specialists, has recently invited applicants to participate in research focused on the impact of gambling on under-served groups in the US or Canada. The strategic initiative aims to ensure funding for high-quality research in this critical area.

Playtech has actively supported this effort by funding research to better understand the impact of gambling on under-served groups in the US and Canada. This research will also help researchers, policymakers, regulators and the industry better understand how best to strengthen and enhance player protection amongst the groups in scope for the study.

Arthur Paikowsky, President of ICRG, said: “We are immensely grateful for Playtech’s donation, which marks a significant step towards improving our understanding of gambling-related health issues among indigenous communities in the US and Canada. This contribution will greatly enhance the effectiveness of responsible gambling measures and Playtech’s commitment to this cause is commendable and will undoubtedly make a substantial impact in the field of gambling research.”

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Jonathan Doubilet, VP of US Business Operations at Playtech, said: “Playtech is committed to creating a safer gambling environment and is a strong supporter of research that helps reduce gambling related harm and enhance player protection measures. We are delighted to be able to support the ICRG’s research that will help advance player protection for vulnerable groups in the US and Canada.”

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