Masters Betting: Drive for Show, Putt for Dough

The phrase “drive for show, putt for dough” is a long-standing mantra in golf that emphasises the importance of putting over driving – specifically driving distance – in winning golf tournaments. But is it true?

While the saying has a clear implication, modern data from professional golf paints a more complex picture.   Using the Shots Gained (SG) metric we can compare different parts of a player’s game to see if there really is a formula for winning.

Driving test

Using shot data gained from datagolf.com we can compare the top players in the world (according to the Official World Golf Ranking) over the last 12 months.

Comparing “shots gained off the tee” with “shots gained putting” seems to turn the myth on its head – the top players gain a higher proportion of their shots off the tee than from putting.  For players ranked in the Top 10, nearly 0.8 shots are gained from driving as opposed to around 0.3 for putting.  Whilst the differential narrows as the players’ ranking decreases, for players ranked 90 – 100, driving still gains more than 0.2 shots more putting.

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This ability to reliably gain strokes through driving gives top pros an edge, setting them up for better scoring opportunities throughout a tournament. Over a whole season, this advantage compounds and allows them to stay at the top of the leaderboards.

The long and the short

However, since “shots gained off the tee” includes par 4 and 5s, the metric is not necessarily just a measure of the importance of driving distance, but also a measure of accuracy.  So, whilst driving matters, is it the distance or the trajectory that is most advantageous for winning tournaments?

Again, using the top ranked players, it appears that distance stands out as a key factor for success, with Top 10 players on average gaining nearly 10 yards per drive compared with those outside the Top 100 throughout the year. This extra yardage translates into shorter approaches and better chances to attack pins throughout the season.

These findings are corroborated by Mark Broadie in his 2014 book Every Shot Counts, where he shows that for professionals, an extra 20 yards of driving distance is worth about three-quarters of a stroke per round.   Relatively speaking, for the rest of us amateur golfers, driving distance becomes even more important for scoring than driving accuracy.

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Putt to the test

While driving distance provides the groundwork for long term success – and is a characteristic that all the Top 10 players seemingly must possess – it doesn’t necessarily “bust the myth” that putting is more important for winning tournaments.  Indeed, looking more deeply into the metrics for the outcome of individual tournaments uncovers the fact that putting becomes more instrumental for who comes out on top.

If we look instead at the finish positions in PGA events over the last 12 months, rather than the World Ranking, putting comes to the fore.  For players finishing first, putting gained an average of 1.2 shots versus a gain of 0.7 for driving.  Even for players finishing 30^th – 35^th, putting is worth more than 0.4 of a shot on average compared to driving. The fact that top finishers in a given event typically post higher gains from putting rather than from driving underscores the vital role of putting during tournament play where players have to capitalize on scoring opportunities and avoid mistakes on the green to win.

The outcome

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Fundamentally the relationship between driving and putting reveals a balanced formula for success. Driving creates opportunities and contributes to consistency while putting often decides who makes the best of those opportunities and ultimately wins on a given weekend. In a game of ever-increasing competition and precision, power and finesse must work together to elevate players to the pinnacle of the sport.

With all the attention on these extremes of golf, other aspects are often overlooked. Completing the same analyses and including shots gained for “approach” and “around the green” makes it clear that there is one area that consistently contributes to wins and ranking, making it arguably the most important aspect of a players golf game.