The 2023 UEFA Champions League campaign comes to a head on June 10th and you would struggle to find someone willing to stake their house on a Manchester City loss this weekend. With Inter Milan currently 7.03 to win, Manchester City [1.46] are the most dominant favourite in the betting market since way before Cloudbet launched in 2013. The only time in the last decade there was anything approaching this kind of imbalance in the odds in a Champions League final was back in 2015, when Barcelona were 1.66 to beat Juventus at 5.00 and their dominant performance resulted in a convincing 3-1 win.
This year, City are way hotter favourites. 12 successive wins saw them clinch the Premier League for a third year in a row, they just won an FA cup against bitter rivals Man United, and in the Champions League they’ve made light work of their competition. The Citizens annihilated European giants – and reigning champions – Real Madrid in the semi-final, winning 5-1 on aggregate.
However, while their form might tempt some punters to back a Mancunian romp in Istanbul, recent statistics suggest it might be a slightly more cautious and conservative game than most are expecting.
Crypto betting specialists Cloudbet have been taking European soccer bets since 2013, and for this UCL Final have been poring over the stats and crunching the numbers to predict what might happen.
Historically, the pre-match favourite has lifted the trophy eight out of the last 10 years – however – the exceptions to this were both in the last two years, both EPL teams, and, in 2021, Man City itself.
It’s true that these ties were much more closely paired, with Chelsea winning at odds of 3.75 and Real Madrid at 3.50, but It’s got to be remembered that this season opponents Inter are very much cup specialists, running out recent winners of the Coppa Italia against a Fiorentina side whose style of play is not unlike Man City.
Inter Milan will be looking to ensure City cannot play their expansive football on Saturday. As a team, Inter have committed the second highest amount of fouls in the competition so far with 150, and breaking up the play with a few tactical fouls may be one way for Inzaghi’s men to stop City’s free-flowing attack. In three of the last five years no side has managed to break the deadlock in the first half, and City themselves have failed to score in the first half in six of their 12 games this Champions League campaign, so the game could start out an altogether cagier affair than Man City aficionados might expect. Albeit they are playing straight off the back of last weekend’s FA Cup Final in which they scored an opening goal in a tournament record 14 seconds.
In four of the last five Champions League finals, the game has ended with fewer than 2.75 goals being scored and those goals coming from one team only. On only two occasions in the past decade has extra time been needed too – with one of these (Bayern Munich vs Chelsea) heading to a penalty shootout.
Only what happens in the match Saturday will, of course, count but statistics seem to point to a Manchester City win in 90 minutes by one or two goals.
Betting with crypto at Cloudbet allows for speedy, secure wagering, with lower fees and enhanced privacy thanks to blockchain’s decentralized system, and Cloudbet’s sophisticated platform. The UEFA Champions League Final averages around 400m viewers worldwide, fans are spread far and wide across the globe so Cloudbet’s localized offering – in 17 languages, including German, French, Spanish and Japanese – really comes into its own on betting events like this.