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The Gambler’s Fallacy is a Crutch for Bitcoin Adoption

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By Ray Sze, Head of Games at Bitcoin.com, who has extensive experience in the gaming industry that stretches back more than a decade. 

 

Gambling is a human institution and has been for millennia. It has been there along the way with religion, relationships, and sports as a regular institution in our lives. Many hopes and dreams have been validated and destroyed on the whims of a game of dice or roulette wheel. There is an explanation though – The Gambler’s Fallacy. This logical premise is cemented in the human psyche and is why gambling continues to thrive as an industry today — the same as it did in Babylon.

Today however, gambling is a much different phenomenon than its ancient predecessors. Americans bet $149 billion illegally on sports in 2015, and digital casinos rake in profits that compete with their physical counterparts on the Las Vegas strip.

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Internationally, gambling havens like Monaco and Macau thrive on the same predilections for gambling that enabled hotbeds of underground casinos to emerge in the first place.

But the digital world is where gambling is poised to continue its rapid growth. No longer can fortunes explicitly be made and lost at a physical card table. Poker celebrities continually arise out of vaunted online poker circles to hit the floor at world championships hosted by the likes of MGM and The Venetian.

And cryptocurrencies are positioned to become an integral component of the proliferation of digital gambling.

An Already Changing Landscape 

A cursory glance at some of the leading online gambling venues (e.g., Bovada), reveals that these platforms are already embracing cryptocurrencies.

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For example, before the emergence of bitcoin, online gambling platforms typically had to pay out winners via cashier’s checks (delivered by snail mail) or chargebacks to the user’s credit/debit card. A cashier’s check is about the slowest route to pay someone and is, obviously, not ideal in 2020. Chargebacks to cards were admittedly popular for a while, but they exposed Americans (illegally online gambling) to the whims of their banks and formed a trail of breadcrumbs for authorities investigating online platforms.

Enter bitcoin.

Nearly every popular online gambling site that earned its stripes in the early 2000s is embracing bitcoin. It reduces regulatory exposure on the part of the bookie (i.e., the platform), and makes payments quicker, more anonymous, and less costly. Bitcoin is naturally congruent with digital gambling.

And the second-order effects on bitcoin’s adoption are important to recognize.

Gambling is an Adoption Crutch for Bitcoin

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People who gamble, and are not familiar with bitcoin, will progressively be exposed to the legacy cryptocurrency as their presence on digital gambling platforms increases. It will progress out of necessity and convenience too, not out of some ideological loyalty to bitcoin.

If you’re gambling on an online platform, what’s the better option?

  1. Risk problems with your bank and not receive your payout by using the card chargeback method.

  2. Wait for 2 – 4 weeks to receive a check in the mail.

  3. Download a bitcoin wallet and use that for instant payouts for the remainder of your gambling voyage.

Option 3 is clearly the most convenient.

Bitcoin adoption based on convenience is also a unique adoption curve for the cryptocurrency. Outside of online gambling, bitcoin is primarily “convenient” in the context of stashing funds from oppressive governments, circumventing capital controls, or sending lucrative sums to another person/entity with strong security and speed assurances. Outside of those contexts, bitcoin is not well understood by the public and is inconvenient to use.

The user-experience of wallets in the bitcoin market is rapidly improving, but gambling may be the crutch it can lean on in the near future.

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For example, digital casinos aren’t solely emerging as competitors to Las Vegas casinos, they’re arising exclusively as bitcoin casinos — like Bitcoin Games. These digital gambling platforms emphasize the speed of payouts, transparency, and privacy. Not to mention they’re populated with new types of games and (in many cases) open-source code on a blockchain to enable gamblers to verify that they’re not being taken to the woodshed by the house.

And once these casinos start embedding more advanced sportsbooks? Lookout. Especially considering the NBA’s recent warming to the idea of enabling legal gambling on its games.

Digital global gambling statistics are challenging to coalesce due to fragmented regulations and the illegal nature of its existence with many private bookies, but what’s evident is the massive scale of the industry. Online gambling has grown virtually linearly over the last decade and the industry as a whole is projected to expand by a CAGR of 8.7 percent through 2024.

With an estimated 26 percent of the world’s population gambling at some point, that’s an enormous opportunity to onboard more users to bitcoin — an adoption crutch often overlooked as we enter the 2020s.

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Bitcoin

Time to Invest in Crypto? SOFTSWISS 2023 iGaming Market Overview

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In 2023, crypto bets expanded by more than 20%, as reported by SOFTSWISS. The leading technology company, with over 15 years of expertise in iGaming and number one in crypto-optimised software, shares its analysis of the dynamic crypto landscape.

According to industry research, the global iGaming market is projected to double by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate of 11.7%. Revenues are expected to exceed 140 billion euro, with a significant share attributed to crypto gambling. 

SOFTSWISS, as the innovator in crypto iGaming software development, regularly conducts research to track the dynamics of crypto within the iGaming market. Using extrapolation, comparative and correlative analysis, experts analyse the data gathered from over 600 crypto-friendly brands powered by the company.

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iGaming Market Overview

Based on SOFTSWISS data, the iGaming market had a stable expansion in 2023. In absolute terms in euro, the Total Bet Sum grew by 38.2% year-on-year. At the same time, the Total Bet Count displayed an even stronger increase, surpassing 51.2%

The average bet is slightly decreasing for several reasons. One significant factor is the broader reach of online gaming, fueled by advanced technology and increased internet availability. This trend is more evident in emerging markets like LatAm and Africa, where bets are usually smaller. Additionally, the increasing number of players under 30 with budget constraints adds to the decline in the average bet size.

State of Crypto

The in-depth quarterly analysis, initiated at the beginning of 2022, reveals that fiat bets are undergoing more substantial growth compared to crypto bets. In Q4’23, the Crypto Bet Sum saw an 8.2% rise in absolute terms, while the Fiat Bet Sum surged by 16.4% compared to Q3’23. At the end of 2023, the crypto share in the Total Bets Sum (27.5%)  decreased by 3.9 p.p.

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The comparative analysis of the 2023 Crypto Bet Sum against  the previous year shows 21.1% growth. Simultaneously, the Crypto Bet Count increased by 50.5% year-on-year. The growing number of bets indicates rising interest in crypto gaming, but the greater availability of digital currencies may lead to slightly more economical bets.

“The advantages of employing digital currencies, such as swift transactions and anonymity, are key drivers for many players. Given these dynamics, the market demands expanding iGaming projects’ opportunities for crypto players. The in-game currency conversion, for example, allows operators to engage players with cryptocurrency assets in games initially designed for fiat transactions. The projects that embrace such possibilities continue gaining more advantageous market positions,” shares Vitali Matsukevich, Chief Operating Officer at SOFTSWISS.

Crypto Bet Stabilisation

The average fiat bet remained steady at around 0.82 euro throughout the previous year. Despite fluctuations in the average crypto bet during 2023, ranging from 1.59 to 1.88 euro, the changes appear modest compared to the twofold drop observed in the average crypto bet during Q4’22, which reached 1.56 euros. This indicates a certain level of stabilisation in the average crypto bet throughout 2023. 

Vitali Matsukevich, Chief Operating Officer at SOFTSWISS, comments: The dynamics of the average crypto bet align with crypto market fluctuations. When digital currency values stabilised in H2 2022, the average crypto bet also levelled out. Another thing is that the average crypto bet is almost two times higher than the average fiat bet, which testifies that digital currencies are potentially used by players with higher incomes. Operators should consider this to increase project profitability.”

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Cryptocurrencies Rating

The Top Five most operated digital coins in iGaming landscape have remained stable during the last two years. 

In 2023, the cryptocurrency structure looks as follows:

  • Bitcoin – 73.3%
  • Ethereum – 9.9%
  • Litecoin – 6.6% 
  • Tether – 4.6%
  • Dogecoin – 3.1%

In Q4 2023, Bitcoin experienced a slight decline by a 5.7 p.p. compared to Q3 2023. Conversely, Ethereum and Litecoin showed growth of 4.7 p.p. and 2.2 p.p., respectively, during the same period.

Vitali Matsukevich, Chief Operating Officer at SOFTSWISS, summarises: “The digital currencies market is rapidly expanding, with estimates showing over 50% growth in capitalisation in 2023. Despite the risks caused by the high volatility of crypto and its dependence on various factors, using it can bring extra profits for operators. The iGaming industry is promising for investments due to growth in both fiat and crypto markets, but success depends on trustworthy and experienced partners.

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About SOFTSWISS 

SOFTSWISS is an international tech company supplying software solutions for managing iGaming projects. The expert team, which counts over 2,000 employees, is based in Malta, Poland, and Georgia. SOFTSWISS holds a number of gaming licences and provides one-stop-shop iGaming software solutions. The company has a vast product portfolio, including the Online Casino Platform, the Game Aggregator with thousands of casino games, the Affilka affiliate platform, the Sportsbook Platform and the Jackpot Aggregator. In 2013, SOFTSWISS was the first in the world to introduce a Bitcoin-optimised online casino solution.

 

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Evgeniy Babitsyn from Bets.io Comments on the Future of BTC

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In January 2024, the SEC approved 11 Bitcoin ETFs, marking a significant announcement for Bitcoin and the wider crypto-market. This approval demonstrates the growing integration of traditional finance with decentralized finance. The announcement has sparked mixed reactions, with crypto experts questioning what this means for the future of tradable crypto assets. On the back of the announcement, the news that BlackRock will now be the biggest holder of Bitcoin has made the issue more complex.

Evgeniy Babitsyn, CMO of Bets.io, is an expert crypto commentator who has been closely monitoring these latest developments.

“There are pros and cons to the BTC ETF. On the one hand, it gives retail investors another avenue of access to the crypto market, allowing them to invest through a traditional finance instrument. This is important because investors not well-versed in crypto investing can find it difficult to access and invest in crypto assets,” he said. “However, the bigger point here is that BTC’s incorporation into an ETF goes against the founding principles of cryptocurrency. Its evolution is a consequence of advanced technology removing the ‘middleman’ in transactions, empowering individuals to make transactions free of bureaucratic institutions.”

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When it comes to the regulation of crypto assets, Evgeniy does admit that there is a role for regulators to play. However, he advises it should not go against the fundamentals of cryptocurrencies. “While there is a role for regulation to play, having an ETF in play goes against what BTC initially set out to achieve as an alternative to traditional financial systems.”

Increased institutional involvement in crypto trading can also distort the market, posing significant questions for the future. “News is now emerging that the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, is on track to becoming the biggest holder of BTC because of the ETF,” Evgeniy said. “Coupled with this, the ongoing developments from state entities to regulate crypto assets, the question now is whether the institutional embrace of BTC marks the beginning of the end for the coin, at least in its original form.”

Bets.io is a renowned brand within the world of crypto iGaming. It was launched in 2021 and has been rapidly expanding ever since. In 2022, the brand was acclaimed as The Rising Star Operator of the Year by SiGMA Europe for its ambition, results, and potential in the online entertainment industry. As such, it has been keenly watching the developments of crypto assets unfold.

Looking to the future, Evgeniy sees big announcements on the horizon. “For now, we know that 2024 will be a monumental year for the future of BTC, cryptocurrencies, and Web3.”

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BitcoinCasinos.com Rebrands as FairBitcoinCasinos.com

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BitcoinCasinos.com has changed its domain name to FairBitcoinCasinos.com as part of its ongoing efforts to promote safe crypto gambling.

BitcoinCasinos.com offers customers thousands of secure crypto-gambling products. The name change will allow FairBitcoinCasinos.com to provide the most in-depth and user-friendly resources for online crypto bettors worldwide.

“We are very excited to introduce the new domain name Fair Bitcoin Casinos. Our primary goal has always been to assist users in finding the most trusted crypto casinos. The new name branding is just one change that will enable us to promote our commitment to providing the most accurate and transparent information to our users,” Tom Middleton, Editor-in-Chief of FairBitcoinCasinos.com, said.

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