bets
The necessary containment of predictive markets in Brazil
Filipe Senna, Partner at Jantalia Advogados and Secretary-General of the Gaming and Betting Law Commission of the OAB/DF, analyzes the recent decision in Brazil to block predictive market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.
He argues that the measure reflects a necessary regulatory step to address legal ambiguities in a segment that sits between informational tools, betting systems, and financial derivatives, reinforcing the need for coherence and equal treatment within Brazil’s evolving regulated markets.
By Filipe Senna
The blocking of predictive market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket in Brazil, following a measure by the National Monetary Council (CMN) and guidance from the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA), is legally sound and follows the same logic already applied to illegal betting operators. The decision does not stem from a restrictive impulse, but rather from the need to preserve the coherence of a market that has become more clearly regulated in recent years.
Although these platforms present themselves as tools for gauging public opinion, their actual operation goes beyond an informational function. A significant portion of the products offered approaches—and in some cases is equivalent to—fixed-odds betting regulated under Law No. 14,790/2023. Sporting events made available in these environments replicate dynamics similar to so-called betting exchanges, making it difficult to sustain a material distinction between one model and another.
There is also a second sensitive issue. Some of these platforms offer instruments resembling financial derivatives, with assets linked to market prices. Because they operate outside the country, they are not subject to the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The result is a relevant regulatory asymmetry, in which foreign companies compete under more favorable conditions than operators that comply with Brazilian rules.
In this context, the blocking fulfills an institutional protective function: it safeguards both the betting market and the financial market from competitive distortions. Companies operating in Brazil under authorization must comply with strict obligations, including tax payments, anti-money laundering policies, and data protection mechanisms. Allowing others to operate outside these requirements undermines the system’s fairness.
The measure also has an inducing character. If these platforms wish to operate in the country, they must adapt to the legal framework corresponding to the type of product they offer. If the activity resembles betting, it must follow betting regulations. If it approaches financial instruments, it must comply with the applicable rules for that market. This is a basic principle of economic organization in regulated sectors.
There is no violation of free enterprise. In the Brazilian legal system, economic freedom coexists with the need to comply with rules, especially in activities involving financial risk and social impact. State action, in this context, aims to ensure that competition occurs on legitimate grounds, without undue advantage for those operating outside national jurisdiction.
There is, in fact, an informational component in these environments. Predictive markets can provide useful signals about collective expectations. The problem arises when this element coexists with structures that replicate the logic of betting or high-risk financial products. In such cases, users no longer interact solely with information but instead assume risks typical of gambling or speculative operations.
An example helps illustrate this boundary. There are markets in which participants must predict, in 5-minute intervals, the variation of assets such as Bitcoin. Although presented as predictive, the dynamic is closer to gambling or mechanisms similar to the former binary options, whose nature has always been associated with high risk and insufficient user protection.
Faced with this gray area, the regulator’s stance is prudent. Suspending the activity allows for deeper debate, clearer criteria to be defined, and prevents regulatory gaps from being exploited. Only after such delimitation will it be possible to discuss, with legal certainty, any future regulation for this type of platform.
The ultimate goal is to preserve a balanced economic environment in which innovation and free enterprise can coexist with clear rules. Without this, the risk is not only legal, but also related to the credibility of the entire system.
Filipe Senna
Partner at Jantalia Advogados and Secretary-General of the Gaming and Betting Law Commission of the OAB/DF (Brazilian Bar Association, Federal District chapter). Author of the book ‘The Regulation of Luck on the Internet’.
The post The necessary containment of predictive markets in Brazil appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.
apuestas
Nuevas reglas del CMN y SPA reorganizan el tablero del iGaming y las apuestas deportivas
Rafael Brunati y Celso Basílio, abogados de Silveiro Advogados especializados en mercados regulados, derecho corporativo y derecho de la competencia, analizan las recientes medidas adoptadas por el Consejo Monetario Nacional (CMN) de Brasil y la Secretaría de Premios y Apuestas (SPA/MF), así como su impacto en la industria del iGaming y las apuestas deportivas.
En este artículo, examinan cómo el nuevo marco regulatorio redefine los límites entre las apuestas, los instrumentos financieros y los modelos emergentes de mercados digitales, al tiempo que refuerza la Ley N.º 14.790/2023 como pilar central de la regulación del sector.
Por Rafael Brunati y Celso Basílio
El conjunto de medidas adoptadas recientemente por el Consejo Monetario Nacional (CMN) y la Secretaría de Premios y Apuestas del Ministerio de Hacienda (SPA/MF) representa un nuevo capítulo en la consolidación regulatoria del mercado brasileño de iGaming y apuestas deportivas.
Más que una respuesta puntual a los llamados mercados predictivos, las iniciativas señalan un intento más amplio de reorganizar los límites entre apuestas autorizadas, instrumentos financieros y actividades consideradas irregulares en el país.
La Resolución CMN N.º 5.298/2026 prohibió la oferta y negociación de derivados vinculados a apuestas, eventos deportivos, juegos en línea y temas políticos, electorales, culturales o de entretenimiento sin referencia económico-financiera.
En la misma línea, la Nota Técnica SPA/MF N.º 2.958/2026 encuadró las plataformas de mercados predictivos como explotación ilegal de apuestas de cuota fija, lo que derivó en el bloqueo de decenas de plataformas por parte de la Anatel.
El movimiento refuerza de manera clara la centralidad de la Ley N.º 14.790/2023 como marco regulatorio exclusivo para la explotación de apuestas de cuota fija en Brasil.
En la práctica, el gobierno ha comenzado a delimitar con mayor precisión quién puede operar en este mercado y bajo qué condiciones.
Las plataformas que buscaban posicionarse como mercados financieros, contratos de eventos o estructuras tecnológicas alternativas pasaron a ser tratadas materialmente como operadores de apuestas.
El mensaje regulatorio es directo: si el producto compite por el mismo público, utiliza una lógica económica similar a las apuestas y conlleva riesgo asociado a eventos futuros, tiende a quedar dentro del perímetro regulatorio de la SPA.
Desde la óptica regulatoria y de competencia, esto genera un efecto relevante para los operadores autorizados.
Las empresas que invirtieron en licencias, cumplimiento normativo, prevención de lavado de dinero, integridad deportiva, políticas de juego responsable y estructura regulatoria dejan de competir con plataformas que operaban al margen de estas exigencias mediante encuadres jurídicos alternativos. Se produce así un fortalecimiento indirecto del valor económico de la licencia regulatoria otorgada por la SPA.
Al mismo tiempo, este fortalecimiento viene acompañado de un aumento significativo de las obligaciones operativas y de cumplimiento.
Las recientes medidas también reabren un debate importante sobre los límites regulatorios de las llamadas betting exchanges y los modelos peer-to-peer.
La propia Nota Técnica SPA/MF N.º 2.958/2026 reconoce que la negociación entre apostadores y la existencia de precios dinámicos no desnaturalizan necesariamente la condición de apuesta de cuota fija. Esta interpretación es relevante porque acerca los mercados predictivos a las estructuras de bolsas de apuestas ya previstas en la Ley N.º 14.790/2023.
Este punto podría abrir espacio, en el futuro, para modelos regulados de betting exchange en Brasil, siempre que estén dentro del perímetro autorizado por la SPA.
Sin embargo, la regulación operativa de este formato aún no ha sido desarrollada por la autoridad, lo que mantiene un nivel importante de incertidumbre para los operadores interesados en innovación de producto.
Desde otra perspectiva, las medidas también tienden a generar una intensa judicialización. Existen debates relevantes sobre los límites de la competencia del CMN para restringir ciertos tipos de derivados, sobre la actuación interpretativa de la SPA respecto a los mercados predictivos y sobre el bloqueo de plataformas sin orden judicial.
Independientemente del desenlace de estas disputas, lo cierto es que el mercado brasileño de iGaming y apuestas deportivas entra en una nueva fase.
La lógica regulatoria deja de centrarse únicamente en la autorización formal para operar y pasa a incorporar de forma más intensa temas como integridad financiera, protección de usuarios vulnerables, gobernanza de datos, trazabilidad de pagos y supervisión operativa continua.
El sector continúa creciendo, pero ahora dentro de un entorno significativamente más sofisticado —y más exigente. Para los operadores autorizados, esto representa simultáneamente una barrera de entrada para competidores irregulares y un aumento relevante en los costos de cumplimiento. En un mercado cada vez más regulado, la diferencia competitiva tiende a depender menos de la capacidad de ofrecer apuestas y más de la capacidad de operar con seguridad regulatoria, integridad operativa y rápida adaptación a las nuevas exigencias del Estado.
The post Nuevas reglas del CMN y SPA reorganizan el tablero del iGaming y las apuestas deportivas appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.
bets
Sports Betting, E-cigarettes and the Illusion of Prohibition
The debate over banning online betting in Brazil is resurfacing at a sensitive moment in the public discourse, marked by simplistic solutions to complex issues.
In this article, Thiago Iusim, founder and CEO of Betshield Responsible Gaming, analyzes the parallels between the electronic cigarette market and the ‘Bets’ sector, highlighting how attempts to eliminate an activity by decree tend to push it into informality.
According to him, the Brazilian experience shows that prohibition does not eliminate markets — it merely reduces the State’s ability to control them and increases risks for consumers.
Brazil has seen this movie before.
There is a magic solution that always seems to return to public debate, especially in election season, whenever an issue becomes politically inconvenient: ban it.
The logic is seductive. In the political narrative, the issue disappears. In real life, it simply moves elsewhere.
E-cigarettes make that point painfully clear.
Vapes have never been authorized in Brazil. They have been officially banned since 2009. In theory, they should not exist. In practice, they are everywhere, sold through social media, messaging apps, marketplaces, street vendors, and small retail shops, with no sanitary controls, no effective oversight, and no real guarantee of origin.
Prohibition did not eliminate the market.
It only eliminated the possibility of surrounding that market with rules.
A recent CNN report on the surge in e-cigarette seizures helps show the scale of the problem. Brazil did not get rid of vapes. It simply pushed the market into an environment where the state lost the capacity to control it.
The state banned it. Organized crime applauded.
That experience helps explain the current debate around online betting in Brazil.
Bets existed long before Law 14,790/2023. For years, Brazil lived with an active market operating online and from abroad, with no local tax collection, no regulatory oversight, and no effective consumer protection tools.
The activity did not emerge because of the law. The law emerged because the activity already existed.
Regulation was the rational response. It was the way to bring an already existing market into a controllable framework, with licenses, concession fees, user identification, anti-money laundering requirements, advertising rules, and player protection mechanisms.
And yet, just eighteen months later, public debate is once again flirting with the same simplistic solution applied to vapes: the fantasy that prohibition would make the activity disappear.
By now, Brazil should know better.
In the case of betting, the country had chosen a different path: regulate in order to control. Protect consumers. Protect the broader economy.
To now return to prohibition as a response to a market that already exists would be more than a regulatory mistake.
It would be a historical contradiction.
Or perhaps simply the most comfortable expression of a certain kind of public moralism that would rather push an activity into the shadows than acknowledge its existence.
In political discourse, prohibition can sound like victory.
In practice, it often functions as morally comfortable packaging for rushed and politically convenient decisions.
This is nothing more than electoral fantasy. And this time, no one will be able to say they did not know how the story would end.
Thiago Iusim
Founder and CEO of Betshield Responsible Gaming
The post Sports Betting, E-cigarettes and the Illusion of Prohibition appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.
bets
TQJ bets on entertainment and responsible gaming in Brazil’s regulated market
Backed by Grupo Silvio Santos, founded by Silvio Santos, the company aims to position itself as a platform that goes beyond traditional betting.
In an interview during BiS SiGMA South America, Fernando Justos Fischer, CEO of TQJ, detailed the company’s strategic pillars, the sector’s challenges and its long-term vision for the Brazilian market.
According to Fischer, the current moment is one of consolidation in the regulated market.
The expectation is that the sector will move toward more mature discussions, focusing on compliance, sustainability and user protection.
In this context, the event is seen as a strategic space for alignment between operators, regulators and partners, driving more structured growth.
TQJ’s strategy is based on three main pillars: strengthening brand and distribution by leveraging the group’s assets; a data-driven operation focused on efficient acquisition and sustainable retention; and responsible gaming as a core principle of the business.
All of this, according to the executive, is supported by technology and intelligence applied to the user experience.
The backing of Grupo Silvio Santos is highlighted as a key competitive advantage.
For Fischer, the combination of credibility, scale and expertise in entertainment allows TQJ to position itself as an accessible, trustworthy brand with a strong connection to the Brazilian audience.
The goal is to lead the market in trust and responsibility.
In a highly competitive environment, the company is focusing on integrating proprietary distribution, gamified experiences and the intensive use of data and artificial intelligence for personalization.
Fischer notes that competitive advantage will increasingly lie in retention, supported by advanced CRM, engagement mechanics and solid responsible gaming practices.
During the event, this positioning was also demonstrated in practice.
Bet do Milhão came to life in a live game show format, directly connecting entertainment and betting. The activation generated engagement and reinforced the company’s value proposition.
Among the main challenges in the Brazilian market, Fischer highlights the need to build a sustainable environment amid intense competition, as well as the importance of educating consumers and combating illegal operators.
He states that operators with discipline, governance and a long-term vision will have a competitive advantage.
In terms of responsible gaming, TQJ already implements tools such as deposit limits, self-exclusion, behavioral monitoring and active communication with users.
The company adopts a preventive and continuous approach that goes beyond regulatory compliance.
This monitoring is carried out through real-time behavioral analysis, enabling the identification of risk patterns and allowing for fast and precise interventions.
Fischer emphasizes that the company aims to go beyond regulatory requirements, viewing responsible gaming as both a competitive differentiator and an institutional commitment.
Artificial intelligence plays a central role in the operation. In marketing, it is used for campaign optimization, prediction and content generation.
In product, it supports the continuous evolution of the user experience. In security, it strengthens analysis and protection systems.
Additionally, AI enables deeper integration between entertainment and betting, creating more interactive and personalized experiences.
Features such as real-time personalization and gamified mechanics are already part of the company’s roadmap.
Even so, Fischer stresses that there is a clear limit when it comes to personalization: user protection. All strategies must operate within responsible parameters, without encouraging risky behavior.
In summary, the CEO defines TQJ’s role in this new phase of the market as a platform capable of connecting entertainment and betting in Brazil with responsibility, technology and trust.
The post TQJ bets on entertainment and responsible gaming in Brazil’s regulated market appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.
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