The Brazilian betting market is navigating its most complex transition period since the initial legalization of fixed-odds betting.

This week, the industry witnessed a confluence of judicial victories, institutional consolidation, and a sharp escalation in political friction that threatens to polarize the upcoming 2026 electoral cycle.

As the Ministry of Finance’s Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA-MF) moves to finalize the technical architecture of the market, including rigorous certification standards and anti-money laundering protocols, the sector finds itself at the heart of a national debate regarding social responsibility, financial integrity, and the limits of state intervention.

ANJL secures Apple Store access for licensed operators

A significant barrier to entry for the regulated digital market in Brazil has been dismantled following strategic judicial pressure from the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL).

For months, authorized operators faced inconsistent hurdles when trying to list their applications on Apple’s App Store, often finding themselves competing at a disadvantage against illegal offshore platforms that bypassed official channels.

The ANJL’s decision to take the matter to court served as a catalyst for a change in policy.

The association argued that restricting authorized operators from official digital distribution channels was counterproductive to the very goals of the Brazilian regulation.

By allowing licensed apps, the industry provides a safe and transparent environment for consumers, making it easier for the public to identify legitimate platforms that adhere to federal laws.

While the initial request for an emergency injunction was not granted in full, the judicial recognition of Brazil’s regulatory framework forced a realignment in Apple’s local operations.

The court acknowledged that Apple’s global internal guidelines already permit gambling and lottery applications in jurisdictions where they are legal and regulated.

This move is seen as a major victory for market canalization, as official app stores offer superior security features, age verification tools, and monitoring capabilities that are absent in the “grey market” or through direct APK downloads.

For the ANJL, this is a fundamental step in protecting the consumer and ensuring that the high costs of compliance for authorized players are met with fair access to the digital ecosystem.

SINAPO and the push for national regulatory harmony

In Brasilia, the federal government took a decisive step toward unifying the fragmented regulatory landscape through the first ordinary meeting of the Forum of the National Betting System (SINAPO).

Led by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA-MF), the meeting included representatives from 15 states and the Federal District, highlighting the complexity of managing a continental-sized market where state and federal powers often overlap.

The central theme of the forum was the need for technical and normative harmony.

Brazil is currently seeing a “regulatory race” where different states are implementing their own lottery and betting models, sometimes with varying degrees of rigor.

SINAPO aims to ensure that these state initiatives do not become safe havens for irregular operations or create legal uncertainty for operators looking to work nationwide.

The federal government presented its progress since the start of 2024, emphasizing that transparency and the protection of the bettor must be the common denominator across all jurisdictions.

Technological integration via the SIGAP system

A breakthrough in the discussions was the proposed adoption of the SIGAP system (Management System for Prizes and Betting) by state lotteries.

Developed by SERPRO, this federal system is designed to provide real-time monitoring of all transactions, player behavior, and tax obligations.

During the forum, a consensus emerged that states with less technological infrastructure could benefit from using the federal system, either in its entirety or as a reference for their own customization.

The federal government expressed its willingness to share source codes and provide technical training to state regulators.

This move toward a “shared technology stack” is crucial for effective enforcement.

If state lotteries and the federal regulator operate on compatible systems, it becomes significantly harder for illegal operators to exploit loopholes or for licensed companies to commit errors in their tax and social responsibility reporting.

The goal is to establish a unified database of authorized sites, preventing the accidental blocking of legal operations while sharpening the tools used to identify clandestine ones.

The offensive against the illegal market: 41,000 sites blocked

The fight against the illegal market has reached an unprecedented scale.

The SPA-MF, in partnership with Anatel, established a specialized laboratory that uses automated tools to scan the web for unauthorized gambling sites.

To date, over 41,000 illegal sites have been identified and subjected to blocking orders.

These tools are capable of capturing evidence from encrypted channels like Telegram and popular social media platforms like Instagram, where much of the illegal promotion occurs.

The laboratory’s automation allows for the rapid distribution of block lists to internet service providers (ISPs).

However, the government acknowledges that illegal operators are highly resilient, often launching new mirror domains (such as 93d.com followed by 94d.com) as soon as a block is implemented.

To counter this, the government is moving toward a systemic, real-time scanning model supported by industry associations, which are helping to fund the technological costs of these enforcement solutions.

The strategy is to increase the operational cost for illegal actors to a point where the Brazilian market is no longer profitable for them.

The Anti-Faction Law and financial surveillance

Perhaps the most significant regulatory development in 2026 is the implementation of the so-called “Anti-Faction Law” (Law 15.328/2026). This legislation has fundamentally changed the risk landscape for financial institutions and payment providers operating in the betting space.

The law was designed to prevent the gambling industry from being used as a vehicle for organized crime and money laundering, providing authorities with the power to order the immediate freeze of funds in accounts linked to unauthorized betting operations.

The Secretariat of Prizes and Betting is currently revising its existing ordinances to align them with this new legal power.

A critical deadline is May 25, 2026, by which the Central Bank of Brazil must publish the specific norms that will dictate how banks and fintechs must execute these blocks.

The expectation is that this will fill current operational gaps where “straw man” companies or shell entities are used to move illegal funds even after an initial intervention.

PIX under scrutiny and joint tax liability

The PIX instant payment system, which has become the dominant method for betting transactions in Brazil, is under intense surveillance.

Authorities have identified a core group of approximately 30 to 40 financial institutions out of the 950 participating in the system that are frequently involved in facilitating payments for illegal sites.

These institutions have been criticized for failing to report suspicious activities to COAF (Council for Control of Financial Activities) and for allowing the rapid reopening of accounts under different corporate names.

Under Complementary Law 224/2025, the government has introduced the concept of joint tax liability.

This means that if a payment provider is officially notified of a site’s illegality but continues to process its transactions, the provider becomes legally responsible for the taxes and fines owed by the operator.

This measure is intended to force a “self-policing” culture within the fintech sector, as the financial risk of ignoring government block lists now outweighs the processing fees earned from illegal volume.

Political polarization: the Boulos prohibitionist stance

While the Ministry of Finance works on technical regulation, a significant political rift has opened within the federal government.

Minister of the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Lula government, Guilherme Boulos, a key figure in the administration’s political wing, has come out strongly in favor of a total ban on betting in Brazil.

Boulos argues that the industry is responsible for a massive transfer of wealth from low-income families to offshore corporations and that it has become a primary tool for money laundering and the financing of anti-government misinformation.

Boulos’s rhetoric suggests that the 2024 regulation has failed to address the social harms of gambling.

He has called for the “end of the betting spree,” claiming that platforms are “eating” the free time of workers and destroying family budgets.

This position contrasts sharply with the efforts of the Ministry of Finance, led by Fernando Haddad, who has consistently argued that prohibition only drives the activity underground, where no taxes are paid and no consumer protections exist.

This internal government division is increasingly influenced by election-year polling. With the 2026 presidential race on the horizon, the “demonization” of bets has become a convenient political narrative for those looking to appeal to conservative or lower-income voters concerned about household debt.

The leader of the government in the House, Paulo Pimenta, recently introduced a bill to ban online casinos entirely, further signaling that the administration may be moving toward more restrictive policies despite the ongoing regulatory work.

Market maturation and the Flutter perspective

The economic impact of these regulatory and political shifts was a central topic at the São Paulo Innovation Week. Industry experts debated the future of the market under the theme of whether the “betting bubble” is finally bursting.

Marcelo Damato, a former SPA advisor, highlighted the dangerous cycle of hyper-inflated sponsorships in Brazilian football.

He noted that the sudden surge in betting brand spending drove up club costs to unsustainable levels, and now that the market is consolidating, many clubs are facing “exploding debts” as sponsorship deals are canceled or renegotiated.

Alvaro Garcia, CMO of Flutter Brazil, provided a more optimistic yet realistic view. Garcia argued that the market is currently undergoing a “normalization” process.

According to Garcia, the initial acquisition phase, characterized by irrational spending and a lack of focus on long-term sustainability, is coming to an end.

He believes that the industry will eventually become a respected part of the sports ecosystem, provided that operators shift their focus toward rational investment and entertainment-based marketing.

Garcia also addressed the ongoing debate over advertising restrictions.

He argued that the best way to protect consumers is through data-driven responsible gaming initiatives rather than total bans.

By using banking data and player behavior analysis, regulated companies can identify risky gambling habits early and intervene.

Flutter’s stance is that a healthy market requires a joint effort between the state, platforms, and financial institutions to ensure that the “long tail” of predatory, unregulated operators is replaced by a professionalized and sustainable sector.

Certification and the future of sports integrity

Technical integrity remains a high priority for the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting.

Through Ordinances 300 and 722, the government has established a rigorous certification process for the operating systems used by betting platforms.

Accredited laboratories, acting as technical extensions of the SPA, are now responsible for auditing algorithms, game systems, and payment integrations.

These certifications, often based on the international GLI Standard 21, must be renewed annually to ensure ongoing compliance.

In parallel, the Federal Police has officially institutionalized a dedicated group to investigate sports manipulation and betting-related crimes.

This group, established on May 12, 2026, aims to centralize all investigations related to match-fixing, creating a unified intelligence channel that bridges federal and state law enforcement agencies.

The goal is to move beyond reactive measures and establish a proactive surveillance system that can identify suspicious betting patterns before they impact the integrity of Brazilian sport.

A market at a crossroads

As Brazil prepares for the next phase of its regulatory journey, the industry stands at a crossroads. On one hand, the Ministry of Finance is building a world-class technical framework centered on compliance, transparency, and state monitoring.

On the other hand, a rising tide of political prohibitionism threatens to undo years of progress in favor of short-term electoral gains.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether Brazil can successfully finalize its transition to a regulated, responsible, and economically significant betting market, or if it will regress into a cycle of prohibition and clandestine activity.

The success of the “Brazilian experiment” in gambling regulation now depends as much on technical excellence as it does on political stability.

From App Store access to police budget disputes, four developments this week reshaped the regulatory and commercial landscape for licensed operators in Brazil

One in ten Brazilian teenagers bet on licensed platforms in 2025

A study commissioned by identity verification platform Unico and conducted by Ipsos with 1,200 young Brazilians between the ages of 10 and 17 revealed that 11% of that population placed bets on betting platforms during 2025.

The highest concentration occurred in the final four months of the year, when 9% of respondents reported having wagered. The data was first reported by Estadão.

The numbers are concentrated in the older age groups and among male respondents. Among boys aged 16 and 17, 20% said they had placed bets online at some point.

Among girls aged 14 and 15, the figure was 14%, more than three times the rate recorded among girls aged 10 to 13, where 4% reported accessing betting platforms or games such as “tigrinho.”

The findings are significant not because they point to failures in the regulated market, but because they highlight what lies beyond it.

Brazil’s licensed operators have been required since January 2025 to implement real-time facial recognition as part of their Know Your Customer procedures, making it virtually impossible for anyone under 18 to register on an authorised platform.

Pix transactions are restricted to accounts matching the platform registration, closing off the use of parents’ credentials.

Operators found in breach face fines of up to R$2 billion and licence revocation.

Luis Felipe Monteiro, CEO for Latin America at Unico, identified the core vulnerability.

“The main challenge today is that much of the internet still operates under fragile age verification mechanisms, based only on self-declaration.

In practice, clicking a button saying ‘I am over 18’ is enough to access different types of content or services,” he says.

Curiosity was the primary reason cited by young respondents for placing bets, mentioned by 41%.

The prospect of easy money was cited by 34%, while the influence of content creators registered at just 9% , a figure that complicates the prevailing narrative around influencer-driven gambling among minors.

The regulatory framework is tightening further.

Brazil’s Digital Child and Adolescent Statute, in force since March 17, requires digital platforms to implement mechanisms to prevent excessive or compulsive use among young people, a provision that explicitly covers betting and digital gaming.

Apple opens the App Store to licensed betting operators in Brazil

In a development the industry had been pushing for since the regulated market launched, Apple updated its App Store policies on May 8 to allow the distribution of fixed-odds betting applications in Brazil.

The change applies exclusively to operators holding a valid licence issued by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance.

The move ends a period in which the iOS ecosystem maintained stricter restrictions for betting apps in the Brazilian market than in comparable regulated markets in Europe.

Those limitations had pushed licensed operators to prioritise mobile web versions and Progressive Web Apps over native applications, a structural disadvantage in a market where smartphones are the primary access point for bettors.

For operators seeking to list their applications, Apple has established a specific review process. Submitting updated app information in App Store Connect without uploading a new version will not trigger a review.

Developers must include Brazilian licence details in the App Review Information section, insert the information in the Notes field and attach supporting documentation confirming operational authorisation.

Applications classified as gambling content must carry an 18+ age rating in Brazil, applied automatically when developers confirm gambling content in the age rating questionnaire.

Apple’s guidelines state that applications must comply with all disclosure and notice requirements under Brazilian law, including age restrictions and gambling risk warnings.

Developers are directed to consult legal counsel on their specific obligations.

The industry’s reading of the update is clear: it represents international recognition of Brazil’s regulatory framework by one of the world’s largest technology companies.

The practical implications extend across commercial strategy.

Mobile already accounts for the dominant share of user access in Brazil, and the availability of native iOS applications opens new possibilities for conversion optimisation, user retention, CRM strategies and push notification campaigns, tools that web-based solutions cannot fully replicate.

The update brings Brazil closer to the operating conditions of established regulated markets in Europe, where licensed operators have long distributed native applications through official mobile ecosystems without restriction.

The full update is available on the Apple Developer News portal.

Brazil’s betting regulator takes the national experience to Bogotá

Daniele Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance, represented the country at the 10th Ibero-American Gaming Summit, which concluded on May 6 in Bogotá, Colombia.

The event, held under the theme “Latin America: a regulated market driving opportunities,” brought together authorities and representatives from 15 Ibero-American countries alongside global companies and industry associations.

The host institution was Coljuegos, the Colombian gaming regulator linked to the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit.

Cardoso participated in the panel “Regulation and Licensing in Latin America: the stability framework,” where she outlined the trajectory of Brazil’s regulatory process and the challenges of building a framework for a market already in full operation at the time the rules were being written.

She traced the legal foundation from Law 13.756/2018 through to Law 14.790/2023, which established the fixed-odds betting regulatory regime, defining the rules for market entry and permanence, the sanctions process, consumer protection measures and mechanisms to address the negative externalities of the activity.

“Participating in international meetings allows us to learn from the experiences of other countries, exchange good practices and improve legal and technological regulatory tools,” Cardoso said.

“This contributes to a safer, more transparent and better protected environment for the bettor.”

The panel also included:

• Luis Filipe Coelho, director of the Gaming Regulation and Inspection Service of Portugal;
• José Luis Pérez, director of Regulation and Registration at Peru’s General Directorate of Casino Games and Slot Machines;
• Juan Carlos Santaella Marchán, director of Puerto Rico’s Gaming Commission;
• Maria de Lourdes Ramírez, General Director of Games and Lotteries of Mexico;
• Marco Emilio Hincapié, president of Coljuegos.

A second panel, focused on responsible gambling as a long-term business sustainability driver, addressed consumer protection as a central pillar of industry operations, with emphasis on the implementation of policies and tools capable of ensuring the viability of the business model while prioritising client protection.

Brazil’s presence in Bogotá reflects the growing weight the country carries in regional regulatory conversations.

With one of the most comprehensive licensing frameworks in Latin America now in its second year of operation, Brazilian regulators are increasingly sought as reference points by counterparts across the region.

Police forces dispute control of betting tax revenues as provisional measure creates internal friction

A provisional measure signed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in early April has generated significant tension within Brazil’s federal security forces over the distribution of revenues derived from fixed-odds betting taxation.

The measure directs up to R$200 million to the Fund for Equipment and Operationalisation of the Federal Police’s Core Activities, known by its Portuguese acronym Funapol, with the stated objective of covering health benefits for officers across three federal police forces: the Federal Police, the Federal Highway Police and the Federal Penitentiary Police.

The political framing presented the measure as a shared victory for all three forces.

The legal reality is more complicated. Funapol is structurally and exclusively linked to the Federal Police.

The provisional measure contains no legal guarantee that the funds will be distributed proportionally among the three institutions, a gap that has generated sustained concern within the Federal Highway Police and Federal Penitentiary Police, according to CNN Brasil.

The background to the measure matters.

The government had originally pursued a Constitutional Public Security Fund as the vehicle for this funding, but that project stalled in Congress with insufficient time for approval before electoral legislation restrictions came into force.

The provisional measure , which carries immediate legal force, was the alternative solution. It resolved the bureaucratic obstacle without resolving the underlying dispute over distribution.

The model established by the measure provides for the government to transfer, progressively through 2028, up to 3% of total fixed-odds betting tax revenues to Funapol.

With Brazil’s regulated market recording a GGR of R$37 billion in 2025, the potential scale of those transfers is substantial.

Congressional allies of the Federal Highway Police and Federal Penitentiary Police have responded by introducing amendments seeking to broaden the scope of distribution and prevent the Federal Police from being the sole beneficiary.

The dispute has transformed the measure’s passage through Congress into a legislative battleground, with both forces maintaining active lobbying operations in Brasília to secure equal treatment.

For the betting industry, the episode illustrates a dynamic that has become increasingly visible since the market launched: tax revenues from licensed operators are now large enough to attract political competition over their allocation,  a development that underlines both the scale the regulated market has reached and the institutional complexity of managing it.

After a year under its new regulatory framework, Brazil’s betting market is moving beyond its early expansion phase, with operators recalibrating marketing strategies, regulators tightening oversight and new regulatory questions emerging.

Brazil’s regulated betting industry continues to evolve rapidly as the country moves through the first full year of its new legal framework for fixed-odds betting.

Recent developments across football sponsorships, advertising debates and regulatory oversight illustrate how the market is transitioning from its initial boom phase toward a more mature and consolidated ecosystem.

While the sector remains one of the most promising in the global iGaming landscape, operators are now facing higher regulatory costs, growing competition and increasing scrutiny from policymakers.

Together, these dynamics are beginning to reshape how betting companies operate — and how they invest — in Latin America’s largest market.

Football sponsorship boom begins to cool

Perhaps the most visible sign of the industry’s transformation can be seen in Brazilian football.

In 2025, betting companies dominated sponsorship deals in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.

Eighteen of the twenty clubs competing in the country’s top division featured betting operators as their main shirt sponsors, reflecting the aggressive marketing strategies that followed the opening of Brazil’s regulated betting market.

But the picture in the 2026 season is notably different.

Six clubs — Santos, Vasco da Gama, Bahia, Internacional, Grêmio and Coritiba — have recently ended or failed to renew sponsorship agreements with betting operators.

The changes occurred between the end of 2025 and the start of the new season.

Each case has its own explanation. Internacional and Grêmio terminated their contracts with Alfa Bet after repeated delays in payments.

Santos and Bahia mutually agreed to end partnerships with 7K Bet and Viva Sorte Bet, respectively. Meanwhile, Vasco and Coritiba simply allowed their deals with Betfair and Reals Bet to expire.

Among these teams, only Santos has secured a new agreement with another betting operator.

However, the new deal reportedly represents a reduction of roughly 30% in annual payments compared with the previous contract.

Analysts say these developments reflect the new economic realities of Brazil’s regulated betting environment.

Regulation increases operational costs

Brazil’s regulatory model for fixed-odds betting came fully into force on January 1, 2025, following the implementation of Law No. 14.790/2023.

Under the new framework, betting operators must establish a legal entity within Brazil and obtain a federal authorization to operate.

The license carries a fee of approximately R$30 million and is valid for five years.

In addition, companies are subject to a 12% tax on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR), alongside other taxes such as PIS, Cofins and municipal service taxes.

Players are also taxed under the new system. Net winnings exceeding the exemption threshold are subject to a 15% income tax.

According to gambling regulation specialist Gustavo Biglia, partner at the law firm Ambiel Bonilha Advogados, the regulatory shift has significantly altered the economic landscape of the industry.

Before the implementation of the new framework, operators faced fewer regulatory obligations, allowing them to allocate substantial budgets toward marketing and sponsorship deals.

“Previously there was no national authorization requirement nor a comprehensive tax regime covering the activity carried out in Brazil,” Biglia explained.

“That environment allowed companies to invest aggressively in marketing and sports sponsorships.”

Now, operators must operate within tighter margins.

Betting operators shift toward efficiency

Industry experts believe the Brazilian betting market is moving beyond its initial brand-building phase.

Eduardo Corch, a marketing professor at Insper and managing director of EMW Global for Latin America, says operators are increasingly focusing on efficiency rather than visibility.

“The objective is no longer simply to appear on football shirts,” Corch said.

“Companies are prioritizing marketing actions where the return on investment can be measured more clearly.”

Another important factor is competition.

The cost of acquiring customers in Brazil has increased significantly as more operators enter the market.

This intense competition is forcing companies to reconsider how they distribute their marketing budgets.

In many cases, funds are being redirected from high-visibility sponsorships toward digital marketing campaigns and data-driven acquisition strategies.

Pietro Cardia Lorenzoni, legal director of the National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL), expects this trend to lead to a more concentrated market structure.

“The initial stage of the market saw large investments from many companies,” Lorenzoni explained. “But the industry is now proving itself and going through a maturation process. A reduction in spending is a natural outcome.”

Major sponsorship deals still exist

Despite the reduction in sponsorship deals across several clubs, betting companies continue to invest heavily in strategic partnerships.

One notable example is Corinthians’ recently renewed agreement with betting brand Esportes da Sorte.

The deal, extended until 2029, increased annual payments from around R$100 million to R$150 million and could reach R$200 million depending on the club’s sporting performance.

For operators, partnerships with major football clubs remain powerful brand-building tools.

Darwin Filho, CEO of Esportes Gaming Brasil — the company behind the Esportes da Sorte brand — described the agreement as a key strategic move.

“It strengthens our connection with fans and expands opportunities to build the brand through experiences, innovation and more comprehensive activations,” he said.

Still, some analysts believe the initial sponsorship wave may have created inflated expectations within football clubs.

José Sarkis Arakelian, consultant and professor at FAAP, argues that certain deals were driven by an early market bubble.

“There was a bubble — and for some clubs there still is — regarding how much betting companies are paying,” he said.

Legal experts also warn that long-term sustainability in the sector will depend more on regulatory compliance than on marketing spending.

“In the short term money buys exposure,” said Leonardo Henrique Roscoe Bessa, consultant to the Brazilian Bar Association and partner at Betlaw. “In the long term only integrity guarantees permanence.”

Advertising restrictions under debate

Beyond sponsorship deals, advertising policy has become another major topic of debate in Brazil’s betting sector.

A bill currently under discussion in the Senate proposes banning advertising and sponsorship by betting companies altogether.

The proposal, known as bill 3563/2024, has sparked strong reactions across the industry.

Brazil’s betting regulator has expressed concerns about such a sweeping measure.

Daniele Correa Cardoso, deputy secretary at the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) within the Ministry of Finance, warned that banning advertising could have unintended consequences.

“How will users distinguish legal platforms from illegal ones?” Cardoso asked during a recent interview.

According to the regulator, the legal market is still in its early stages, and advertising plays an important role in helping consumers identify licensed operators.

“The market itself is not prohibited,” she noted. “What is prohibited is operating without authorization.”

Authorities fear that removing advertising visibility could push players toward unregulated platforms.

Crackdown on illegal operators continues

Since the launch of the regulated market in January 2025, Brazilian authorities have intensified enforcement efforts against illegal betting sites.

Through cooperation with the telecommunications regulator Anatel, more than 25,000 unauthorized betting websites have already been blocked.

However, regulators acknowledge that blocking websites alone is not sufficient.

Authorities are now focusing on financial channels used by illegal operators, working with payment institutions to identify and block transactions linked to unauthorized platforms.

These efforts are part of a broader strategy to strengthen the regulated ecosystem and protect consumers.

Responsible gambling becomes regulatory priority

Another key focus for the government is responsible gambling.

In a recent event in Salvador attended by around 1,000 consumer protection professionals, officials from the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting presented new initiatives aimed at strengthening player protection mechanisms.

Brazilian law defines fixed-odds betting as a public service that may be operated by private companies under government authorization.

As a result, operators are required to implement safeguards addressing both financial and mental health risks associated with gambling.

One of the most significant developments has been the launch of a centralized self-exclusion system.

The platform allows players to voluntarily block their access to all licensed betting platforms through a single registration process.

Regulators have also introduced stricter rules governing advertising, particularly regarding vulnerable audiences and misleading claims.

Prediction markets emerge as new regulatory challenge

At the same time, regulators are monitoring new types of betting-adjacent products entering the Brazilian market.

The recent announcement that US-based prediction market operator Kalshi plans to enter Brazil through a partnership with brokerage XP International has drawn attention from regulators.

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on the outcome of future events, ranging from political developments to sports results.

Because these products share characteristics with both financial derivatives and betting, their regulatory classification remains unclear in Brazil.

The SPA has clarified that no companies are currently authorized to operate prediction markets in the country.

Andre Santa Ritta, partner at the law firm Pinheiro Neto, believes the issue may become another complex regulatory challenge.

“In Brazil we still have a grey zone regarding prediction markets,” he said. “They are not clearly part of the fixed-odds betting framework, but they are not formally regulated as financial derivatives either.”

For licensed betting operators, the concern is that such products could attract users away from the regulated betting ecosystem.

A maturing market

Taken together, the latest developments suggest that Brazil’s betting industry is entering a new phase.

The early years of rapid expansion — characterized by heavy marketing spending and aggressive sponsorship strategies — are gradually giving way to a more structured and regulated environment.

Operators must now balance compliance requirements, rising customer acquisition costs and increasing political scrutiny.

At the same time, regulators continue to refine the framework in an effort to protect consumers while maintaining a competitive and sustainable legal market.

For international operators and investors, Brazil remains one of the most attractive opportunities in global iGaming.

But as the market matures, success will depend less on rapid expansion and more on strategic positioning within an increasingly regulated landscape.