The slow death of grey markets in Europe and the increasingly clear line between regulated spaces and the black market is set to divide the entire industry in two, including suppliers.

With almost all major European markets having adopted or being well on their way to enacting a full licensing regime for online gambling, the battle lines between what is on- and off-shore are clearer than ever.

For those nations that persist with restrictions on some sectors, like the continued monopoly in Norway or France’s ban on online casinos, it’s becoming nearly impossible to justify doing business in spite of these prohibitions – even for suppliers.

Regulators in the rest of Europe increasingly expect their licensees to follow not just their rules, but those of their fellow authorities across the continent.

Where once expectations of good behaviour were reserved exclusively for operators, B2B companies are now subject to the same scrutiny.

For the past few years, there has been a general building of pressure on suppliers, but this year B2B compliance has moved from a growing trend to become the status quo for the sector.

Where do you stand?

The industry is being asked to pick a side and even to play the role of regulator itself, in some cases.

“We understand that at least one piece of recent B2B regulatory enforcement [in the UK] may have come as a result of a B2C operator effectively reporting one of its suppliers,” said Andy Danson, the head of Bird & Bird’s international gambling practice.

It’s becoming clear that a meaningful percentage of operators have fully bought into the idea that those who continue to exist in European black or grey are threats to their bottom line.

Speaking on a recent webinar organised by his firm, Danson added: “There is an increasing use of commercial pressure and accountability alongside regulatory enforcement, and there is this growing expectation that licensed businesses consider who they support.”

Danson notes that, in his view, the burden on operators to self-police their industry is probably becoming too large.

“How much can a regulator really expect B2C licensees to regulate their suppliers? It is ultimately the regulator’s job to do that, and B2C really should be able to rely on their suppliers having a local license.”

This backwards pressure is also being exerted on suppliers in jurisdictions where they are required to obtain their own licenses.

Regulators expect suppliers not to sell their content to operators who service their local black market and look dimly on supplying companies active in illegal markets in any part of the world.

Gone are the days when these authorities would accept the excuse that aggregators are ultimately responsible for providing game content to these offshore operators. Instead, suppliers risk enforcement if they do not have oversight of the entire supply chain their products exist in.

Dealmakers

This pressure coming in from every angle leads to only one inevitable conclusion: M&A activity.

As suppliers are forced to choose either to abandon their high profit margin offshore clients or their reliable onshore customers, the possibility of dividing into two parts becomes more and more compelling.

“I think businesses will very likely look to separate and restructure, particularly where they currently have a real mix of regulated and unregulated market activities,” said Danson.

“We certainly saw similar trends five to ten years ago when the regulatory focus on this sort of issue was more on the B2B side,” he added.

This move would be driven partly by modern regulatory complexities, but also the impact of US investors entering the gambling market more prominently over the past five years.

US-based capital tends to be more skittish about any activity with uncertain regulatory backing and its law enforcement authorities are not shy about exerting their authority extraterritorially.

“International market exposure is becoming more and more relevant in an investment and M&A context,” Danson confirmed.

A dilemma

Those gambling businesses choosing the regulated environment are at least finding their authorities more willing than in previous years to take proactive action against the black market.

In the UK, the Gambling Commission has received a grant of £26m from the government to step up its work against illegal online gambling, for example.

Regulators are also understood to be sharing more information than ever before about the main bad actors afflicting their markets, through organizations like the Gambling Regulators Europe Forum (GREF).

Although it’s worth noting that officials also say they are swapping notes on the activities of their licence-holders as well, in yet a further example of international compliance becoming a local issue.

This, along with an atmosphere of zero compromise when it comes to tightening regulations, has created a situation where the choice between on- and off-shore is not a simple one.

Andy Danson summed up the problem: “By creating an environment which has become so burdensome and challenging for regulated markets to operate, and then challenging operators and suppliers to pick a side, regulators perhaps shouldn’t be all that surprised when some operators out there might not necessarily choose the side that they want them to.”

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