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The Affiliate Squeeze: Is Performance Marketing Becoming Structurally Fragile?
For more than a decade, performance marketing has been the engine room of iGaming growth. Affiliates generated traffic, operators paid for measurable outcomes, and the model scaled with remarkable efficiency. Clicks turned into registrations, registrations into first-time deposits, and first-time deposits into CPA payments. Clean. Transactional. Predictable.
That clarity, however, is beginning to soften.
Across the industry, conversations have shifted. Not dramatically, and not always publicly, but noticeably. AI-driven search, rising acquisition costs, and tighter operator budgets are reshaping the environment in which affiliates operate. The system still functions. It simply feels more strained.
The Model That Built Modern iGaming
The CPA model worked because incentives aligned. Affiliates took on traffic risk. Operators paid only for converting customers. Tracking systems were straightforward: a user clicked, registered, deposited, and attribution followed.
In practice, that structure encouraged scale. Affiliates invested in SEO, paid media, and content teams. Operators expanded aggressively into new markets. Margins supported experimentation. Everyone understood the logic.
And for years, it held. What made it powerful was simplicity. Performance was measurable. Risk was distributed. Revenue forecasts, while never guaranteed, were at least anchored to visible metrics. That visibility is now less certain.
AI Search and the Zero-Click Shift
Search behaviour is changing. Google’s AI-generated summaries increasingly answer user queries directly on the results page. Bonus terms, brand comparisons, and promotional codes appear without requiring a site visit. Official documentation from Google Search Central confirms the expansion of AI-enhanced search experiences.
The effect is subtle but measurable. Organic click-through rates for certain informational and commercial queries are declining. Traffic may still exist, but it does not always pass through affiliate pages.
For CPA-based models, this matters. Attribution depends on clicks. If users copy a code displayed in a search snippet and visit the operator directly, the affiliate link never fires. The traffic exists. The conversion exists. The tracking does not.
In practice, that creates friction. Affiliates invest in content, yet conversion paths bypass them. Operators still acquire customers, but attribution becomes blurred. Tension follows.
Rising Acquisition Costs and Budget Discipline
At the same time, operators face mounting pressure. Compliance costs are rising. Tax burdens in several jurisdictions have increased. Marketing departments are under closer scrutiny. Efficiency, rather than expansion, defines strategy.
Paid media costs have climbed. CPMs remain elevated. Creative approvals are stricter. Data usage is more tightly governed.
In that environment, aggressive CPA deals become harder to justify. Operators examine lifetime value projections more carefully. Quality thresholds tighten. Payment terms stretch. None of this signals collapse. It signals caution. And caution reshapes negotiation dynamics.
From Volume to Efficiency
The industry’s appetite for raw first-time deposit volume has shifted toward retention quality. Lifetime value matters more than headline acquisition numbers. Affiliates sending high-intent, sustainable players remain valuable. Low-quality traffic is less tolerated.
This recalibration affects compensation structures. Clawback clauses are more common. Delayed commission schedules appear more frequently. Hybrid deals begin to surface in conversations that once centred solely on CPA.
In reality, the market is maturing. But maturity introduces pressure on models built during expansionary phases.
BritishGambler.co.uk on the Structural Fragility of Pure CPA
Pure CPA assumes linear attribution. Click leads directly to conversion. Revenue attribution follows that click. Yet digital behaviour rarely remains linear. Users research across multiple sources. They compare offers in AI summaries. They return directly to branded domains.
The more fragmented the discovery journey becomes, the harder single-click attribution feels.
In our experience, says Martin Eriksen, head of partnerships at British Gambler, a UK casino and betting comparison platform, observing operator-affiliate negotiations, the issue is less about intent and more about mechanics. Affiliates may still influence the decision-making process, but influence without trackable action weakens the commercial argument.
When attribution becomes probabilistic rather than direct, pure CPA logic strains.
Are Hybrid Models Becoming Structural?
CPA Plus Revenue Share
Blended models are gaining traction. A lower upfront CPA combined with ongoing revenue share distributes risk differently. Affiliates maintain incentive to drive quality traffic. Operators reduce immediate acquisition cost exposure.
Such structures require trust. They also require clearer retention data. For established partnerships, they can stabilise revenue streams. For newer affiliates, they present risk.
Flat Fees and Brand Placement
Another shift involves visibility-based compensation. Affiliates may receive fixed payments for brand placement within high-authority content, regardless of click-through. The logic reflects AI search realities. If brand visibility influences AI summaries or organic impressions, the value extends beyond direct clicks.
This model moves closer to media buying than traditional performance marketing. It is less transactional, more strategic.
Unique Code Attribution
Operators experimenting with standalone tracking codes attempt to bridge the gap. If users enter a code manually during registration, attribution survives without the need for a direct click. This approach, while imperfect, acknowledges behavioural change.
Hybridisation is not theoretical. It is already underway.
A Broader Ecosystem Shift
Affiliate pressure does not exist in isolation. Wider industry signals point toward recalibration. As highlighted in N1 Insights: The iGaming Trends Everyone Will Be Talking About This March –, discussions around AI integration, regulatory tightening, and shifting consumer expectations are intensifying. Performance marketing sits within that larger transformation.
Digital discovery evolves. Compliance frameworks tighten. Budget discipline increases. Affiliates, positioned between operators and search engines, absorb pressure from both directions. And the squeeze becomes structural rather than cyclical.
Consolidation and Market Concentration
When margins narrow and attribution weakens, smaller affiliates often struggle first. Larger networks, with diversified revenue streams and broader operator portfolios, weather volatility more effectively.
Gradually, consolidation follows. Independent sites close or merge. Traffic concentrates within fewer entities. Negotiation leverage shifts.
Concentration simplifies relationships for operators. It also reduces diversity in acquisition channels. Innovation at the margins declines. This is not dramatic. It is incremental. But incremental shifts define long-term industry structure.
Is Performance Marketing Actually Breaking?
Despite pressure, affiliate marketing remains deeply embedded in iGaming. High-intent traffic still converts efficiently. Trusted comparison platforms still influence decisions. Operators continue to rely on external acquisition channels.
The question, then, is not whether performance marketing will disappear. It is whether the compensation model sustaining it will remain unchanged.
Pure CPA was built in an era of linear search behaviour and expanding budgets. Today’s environment is more layered. Discovery occurs across AI summaries, social feeds, and branded recall. Compliance shapes creative. Attribution blurs at the edges. Under those conditions, rigidity weakens resilience.
Adaptation or Attrition
Markets evolve. Models either adapt or fragment.
Affiliates that diversify compensation structures, invest in brand authority, and collaborate closely with operators may find stability. Those relying exclusively on high CPA payouts and linear attribution may encounter greater volatility.
Operators, for their part, face a similar decision. Preserve rigid CPA frameworks and risk partner attrition. Or experiment with hybrid approaches that reflect modern discovery behaviour.
Performance marketing is not collapsing. It is being recalibrated.
In the end, the affiliate channel remains valuable because it delivers intent-driven users. What may change is the mechanism through which that value is priced.
When clicks become less visible but influence remains, compensation must evolve accordingly.
The squeeze is real. Whether it becomes fragility depends on how quickly both sides accept that the old clarity is unlikely to return.
The post The Affiliate Squeeze: Is Performance Marketing Becoming Structurally Fragile? appeared first on Eastern European Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.
La expansión global de los mercados de predicción está comenzando a redefinir la forma en que los usuarios interactúan con la información, la probabilidad y el engagement digital.
Ubicadas en la intersección entre finanzas, tecnología y datos de comportamiento, estas plataformas están ganando tracción como una forma estructurada de transformar la inteligencia colectiva en pronósticos medibles sobre eventos futuros.
En Brasil, este segmento emergente aún se encuentra en una etapa inicial, pero la combinación de una audiencia digital altamente comprometida, la reciente evolución regulatoria en sectores adyacentes como fintech y cripto, y la búsqueda constante de nuevos modelos de engagement dentro del iGaming, crea un entorno fértil para el crecimiento.
Es en este contexto que VoxFi se posiciona como uno de los primeros actores estructurados dentro del ecosistema local.
La semana pasada, durante BiS SiGMA South America 2026 en São Paulo, la empresa presentó oficialmente su solución white label, diseñada para permitir que terceros integren mercados de predicción directamente en sus propios sitios web y aplicaciones.
VoxFi también participó en el panel “Forecasting or Gambling? The Fine Line Between Prediction Markets and Bets”, donde el CEO y cofundador Fernando Carvalho analizó los límites entre los modelos de predicción emergentes y las estructuras tradicionales de apuestas.
Además, la compañía fue seleccionada como una de las seis finalistas del Startup Pitch Competition del evento, reforzando su posicionamiento como un actor innovador en el sector.
La empresa, una plataforma brasileña enfocada en contratos de predicción basados en eventos, ha desarrollado una solución white label que permite a otras compañías integrar mercados de predicción directamente en sus propios entornos digitales.
A través de conectividad vía API, empresas de distintos sectores, desde medios y entretenimiento hasta telecomunicaciones, pueden ofrecer experiencias de predicción personalizadas bajo su propia marca, aprovechando la infraestructura, el marco de compliance y los mecanismos de liquidez de VoxFi.
A diferencia de los modelos tradicionales de apuestas, VoxFi opera bajo una lógica peer to peer, donde los usuarios negocian contratos binarios, sí o no, basados en resultados futuros.
El precio de estos contratos refleja probabilidades percibidas, creando un entorno dinámico que se asemeja más a los mercados financieros que a las estructuras de juego convencionales.
Todos los mercados pasan por un proceso interno de curaduría y validación, con criterios de resolución claramente definidos, estándares de compliance y sistemas de monitoreo.
La plataforma también incorpora prácticas del mercado financiero como KYC obligatorio, monitoreo de transacciones y segregación de cuentas por evento, reforzando su posicionamiento como un ecosistema estructurado y responsable.
Fundada por Fernando Carvalho, conocido por su rol en el desarrollo del mercado de criptoactivos en Brasil a través de QR Capital, y Luis Felipe Carvalho, emprendedor fintech detrás de NG.CASH, VoxFi combina experiencia en innovación financiera con un producto diseñado para escalar y alinearse con la regulación.
En esta entrevista exclusiva, el CEO Fernando Carvalho explica las razones detrás de su entrada en un segmento aún poco comprendido, el posicionamiento estratégico de VoxFi y lo que viene para los mercados de predicción en Brasil.
El mercado de predicción aún no es ampliamente comprendido en Brasil. ¿Qué los llevó a apostar por este sector?
Fernando Carvalho – Elegimos construir VoxFi porque los mercados de predicción son una de las formas más eficientes de transformar información dispersa en probabilidades sobre el futuro.
Agregan conocimiento colectivo de manera estructurada y transparente.
Observamos avances regulatorios importantes en Estados Unidos entre 2024 y 2025, lo que indicó que este modelo comenzaría a escalar globalmente.
Vimos un escenario similar al inicio del mercado cripto, un sector nuevo que requiere educación, gobernanza sólida y desarrollo gradual para alcanzar escala.
¿Dónde está la línea entre mercados de predicción y apuestas?
La diferencia es estructural. En los mercados de predicción, los usuarios negocian entre sí a través de un libro de órdenes y los precios reflejan probabilidades percibidas.
En las apuestas tradicionales, existe una casa que define las cuotas y asume el riesgo. Aquí no hay casa, hay mercado.
VoxFi entra con un enfoque B2B. ¿Qué oportunidad identificaron?
El iGaming está atravesando una transformación en Brasil y los operadores buscan nuevas formas de engagement.
Nuestra solución permite integrar mercados de predicción como una capa adicional de contenido vía API, mientras los socios mantienen su identidad de marca.
¿Compiten con operadores de apuestas?
No. Complementamos el ecosistema. Evitamos deliberadamente temas deportivos para no competir directamente y ampliar el abanico de contenidos.
¿Brasil está atrasado en este segmento?
No. Está en una etapa inicial, pero con características ideales, una audiencia digital altamente comprometida y una creciente familiaridad con instrumentos financieros más sofisticados.
¿Cómo funciona el modelo de ingresos?
Es similar al de plataformas de trading, cobramos comisiones sobre transacciones o sobre la liquidación de contratos.
En el modelo B2B también generamos ingresos a través de fees de implementación y acuerdos de revenue share. Es un modelo altamente escalable.
¿Quiénes son los principales interesados hoy?
Hay tres grupos principales, operadores de iGaming, empresas de medios y entretenimiento, y plataformas digitales con grandes audiencias.
¿Cómo se construye liquidez en un mercado nuevo?
Inicialmente mediante un market maker interno para garantizar condiciones eficientes de negociación. Al mismo tiempo, estamos desarrollando infraestructura para integrar market makers externos a medida que el ecosistema crece.
¿Por qué evitar temas como deportes y elecciones?
Es una decisión estratégica para alinearnos con la regulación actual y evitar conflictos con organismos como CVM, SPA y TSE.
¿Brasil está cerca de regular los mercados de predicción?
La discusión recién está comenzando a tomar fuerza. El principal riesgo es una clasificación incorrecta como apuestas tradicionales o como derivados financieros.
¿Qué define el éxito en los próximos seis meses?
El crecimiento de la base de usuarios, el volumen negociado y la activación de integraciones white label con socios estratégicos.
A futuro, ¿será un complemento del iGaming o una categoría propia?
En el corto plazo lo vemos como un complemento natural del iGaming, agregando nuevas capas de contenido y engagement.
A largo plazo, creemos que puede convertirse en una categoría digital propia, una nueva capa de internet enfocada en la predicción de eventos futuros.
The post Fernando Carvalho define una nueva era para los mercados de predicción en Brasil con VoxFi appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.
Brazil
Fernando Carvalho outlines new era for prediction markets in Brazil with VoxFi white label technology
The global expansion of prediction markets is beginning to reshape how users interact with information, probability, and digital engagement.
Positioned at the intersection of finance, technology, and behavioral data, these platforms are gaining traction as a structured way to transform collective intelligence into measurable forecasts about future events.
In Brazil, this emerging segment is still in its early stages, but the combination of a highly engaged digital audience, recent regulatory evolution in adjacent sectors such as fintech and crypto, and the constant search for new engagement models within iGaming creates a fertile environment for growth.
It is within this context that VoxFi is positioning itself as one of the first structured players in the local ecosystem.
Last week, during BiS SiGMA South America 2026 in São Paulo, the company officially presented its white-label solution, designed to allow third-party businesses to integrate prediction markets directly into their own websites and applications.
VoxFi also took part in the panel “Forecasting or Gambling? The Fine Line Between Prediction Markets and Bets,” where CEO and co-founder Fernando Carvalho discussed the boundaries between emerging prediction models and traditional betting structures.
In addition, the company was selected as one of the six finalists in the event’s Startup Pitch Competition, reinforcing its positioning as an innovative player in the space.
The company, a Brazilian platform focused on event-based prediction contracts, has introduced a white-label solution that allows third-party companies to integrate prediction markets directly into their own digital environments.
Through API connectivity, businesses across sectors, from media and entertainment to telecom, can offer customized prediction experiences under their own branding, leveraging VoxFi’s infrastructure, compliance framework, and liquidity mechanisms.
Unlike traditional betting models, VoxFi operates on a peer-to-peer logic, where users trade binary contracts (“yes” or “no”) based on future outcomes.
The pricing of these contracts reflects perceived probabilities, creating a dynamic environment that resembles financial markets more than conventional gambling structures.
All markets undergo internal curation and validation, with clearly defined resolution criteria, compliance standards, and monitoring systems.
The platform also incorporates financial-market practices such as mandatory KYC, transaction monitoring, and event-based account segregation, reinforcing its positioning as a structured and responsible ecosystem.
Founded by Fernando Carvalho, known for his role in advancing the crypto asset market in Brazil through QR Capital, and Luis Felipe Carvalho, a fintech entrepreneur behind NG.CASH, VoxFi combines experience in financial innovation with a product designed for scalability and regulatory alignment.
In this exclusive interview, CEO Fernando Carvalho explains the rationale behind entering a still-misunderstood segment, the strategic positioning of VoxFi, and what lies ahead for prediction markets in Brazil.
The prediction market is still not widely understood in Brazil. What led you to invest in this sector?
Fernando Carvalho – We chose to build VoxFi because prediction markets are one of the most efficient ways to transform dispersed information into probabilities about the future.
They aggregate collective knowledge in a structured and transparent way. We observed important regulatory developments in the United States between 2024 and 2025, which indicated that this model would begin to scale globally.
We saw a scenario similar to the early days of the crypto market: a new sector that requires education, strong governance, and gradual development to reach scale.
Where is the line between prediction markets and betting?
The difference is structural. In prediction markets, users trade with each other through an order book, and prices reflect perceived probabilities.
In traditional betting, there is a house that sets the odds and assumes the risk. Here, there is no “house” — there is a market.
VoxFi enters with a B2B approach. What opportunity did you identify?
iGaming is undergoing a transformation in Brazil, and operators are looking for new ways to engage users.
Our solution allows prediction markets to be integrated as an additional content layer via API, while partners maintain their own brand identity.
Do you compete with betting operators?
No. We complement the ecosystem. We deliberately avoid sports-related topics to prevent direct competition and instead expand the range of available content.
Is Brazil behind in this segment?
No. It is in an early stage, but with ideal characteristics: a highly engaged digital audience and increasing familiarity with more sophisticated financial instruments.
How does your revenue model work?
It is similar to trading platforms: we charge fees on transactions or on contract settlement. In the B2B model, we also generate revenue through setup fees and revenue-sharing agreements. It is a highly scalable model.
Who are the main players interested in this today?
There are three main groups: iGaming operators, media and entertainment companies, and digital platforms with large audiences.
How do you build liquidity in a new market?
Initially, through an internal market maker to ensure efficient trading conditions. At the same time, we are developing infrastructure to integrate external market makers as the ecosystem grows.
Why avoid topics like sports and elections?
This is a strategic decision to align with current regulations and avoid conflicts with authorities such as CVM, SPA, and TSE.
Is Brazil close to regulating prediction markets?
The discussion is just beginning to gain traction. The main risk is being incorrectly classified as either traditional betting or financial drivatives.
What defines success in the next six months?
Growth in user base, trading volume, and the activation of white-label integrations with strategic partners.
Looking ahead, will this be a complement to iGaming or a standalone category?
In the short term, we see prediction markets as a natural complement to iGaming, adding new layers of content and engagement. In the long term, we believe they can become a standalone digital category, a new layer of the internet focused on forecasting future events.
The post Fernando Carvalho outlines new era for prediction markets in Brazil with VoxFi white label technology appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.
DATA.BET has reinforced its ambitions in Latin America by making a strong return to BiS SiGMA South America 2026, one of the region’s most influential iGaming events.
With a significantly larger presence and an expanded product suite, the company demonstrated a clear evolution from its earlier identity as an esports-centric provider into a comprehensive sportsbook solutions partner.
Held in São Paulo, the event provided the perfect stage for DATA.BET to showcase its full-scale betting ecosystem. The company presented an integrated portfolio that spans traditional sports betting, esports wagering, and virtual sports—positioning itself as a one-stop solution for operators targeting regulated markets, particularly in Brazil.
A key highlight of DATA.BET’s offering is its GLI certification for Brazil. This certification is a major advantage for operators, as it removes the need for additional technical approvals and significantly shortens time-to-market. In a rapidly developing regulatory environment like Brazil’s, this capability gives partners a competitive edge when launching or scaling their betting platforms.
At the exhibition stand, visitors explored several product enhancements designed to improve both operator efficiency and player engagement. Among the updates were revamped Statistical Widgets and the esports-focused Timeline Widget, both aimed at delivering richer real-time insights and more immersive user experiences. The introduction of features such as One-Click Bet and Early Payout further underscores DATA.BET’s commitment to streamlining the betting journey while adding flexibility and excitement for end users.
In addition to officially announced upgrades, the company also teased an upcoming feature currently in development. While details remain under wraps, DATA.BET indicated that this innovation will push engagement standards even higher, reflecting its ongoing investment in next-generation betting technology.
Beyond technology, the company ensured its booth stood out through an engaging and interactive atmosphere. Cosplayers portraying popular League of Legends characters Jinx and Ahri attracted steady attention, reinforcing DATA.BET’s roots in esports culture while bridging the gap to mainstream sports betting audiences. A dynamic kinetic screen added a visual centerpiece, helping to maintain strong visitor engagement throughout the event.
According to Natalie Loshatynska, Head of PR & Marketing at DATA.BET, the company’s return to SiGMA South America marks a significant milestone. She emphasized that the transformation from an esports-focused provider to a full sportsbook ecosystem reflects both strategic growth and a deep commitment to local markets. With expanded coverage, localized certification, and tailored tools, DATA.BET is positioning itself as a leading supplier across key verticals including esports, traditional sports, and virtual betting.
This strategic shift aligns with broader industry trends, as Latin America—particularly Brazil—continues to emerge as one of the fastest-growing regulated betting markets globally. By investing in technology, compliance, and localized solutions, DATA.BET aims to empower operators to capitalize on these opportunities while delivering high-quality betting experiences to users.
As competition intensifies in the region, companies that can combine regulatory readiness with innovative product offerings are likely to lead the market. DATA.BET’s performance at BiS SiGMA South America 2026 suggests it is well on its way to becoming a dominant force in the evolving Latin American betting landscape.
The post DATA.BET Expands at SiGMA South America 2026 appeared first on Eastern European Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.
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