The recent increase in the Dutch gambling tax has failed to achieve its primary financial objectives. This is evident from the “monitor of the effects of the increase in gambling tax,” conducted by the Ministry of Finance and the Dutch Gaming Authority. As of January 1, 2025, the gambling tax was increased from 30.5% to 34.2%, and in 2026 the rate was further raised to 37.8%. The aim of this increase was to raise government revenue. The monitor shows that this goal is not being achieved as expected: the projected tax revenues turned out lower.

The tax increase was expected to yield an additional €108 million in 2025 compared to the previous year, and €216 million in 2026. However, the monitor shows that these amounts are turning out much lower: an additional €2 million was collected in 2025, and €57 million in 2026. Moreover, the tax increase is causing a decrease in revenue from state participations, resulting in even lower additional revenue for the State.

The fact that tax revenues are lower is due to several developments. In the years measured, various measures were taken to better protect players, causing the gross gaming result (GSR) of providers to decrease. This leads to a decrease in the tax base, the amount on which tax must be paid. The tariff increase itself may also have led to a decrease in the tax base, for example because physical establishments of gambling companies were closed in the interest of profitability.

The monitor also examined the effects on market size, channeling, and contributions to charities and sports. It is not possible to draw conclusions regarding this, as multiple changes occurred simultaneously. For instance, the aforementioned rules to better protect players and various advertising restrictions have also impacted the gambling market.

Looking beyond Brazil, which LatAm market stands out most right now, and what makes it attractive?

Liam Hoofe, Content Strategist at GameOn

Based on our research for GO Intel, I think Chile is the market to watch out for the most. The size of the opportunity is potentially massive, with the Chilean Senate’s own figures estimating that more than 5 million Chileans are already gambling online.

The demand is definitely there, and broader discussions about a regulatory framework are underway. Our estimates in GO Intel also put channelisation rates at 80% if enforcement and regulation ran smoothly.

The proposed ‘cooling-off’ period for operators already active there is also quite a unique approach, and it will benefit those who approach the market with the right foundations in place.

Of course, as we’ve seen with Brazil, there will no doubt be a lot of public debate around the market, and the tax structure could be complex, but of the three we researched, this one still stands out the most.

Paulina Hovar, Lead Sales Manager LATAM at BGaming

Right now, Mexico and Argentina stand out the most to me.

Mexico has been showing steady growth for a while now. It’s already a fairly mature market with strong operator presence, but there’s still plenty of room to scale. At the same time, one of the main things to watch is the tax situation and how regulation may develop in the future, since that could impact profitability and market dynamics.

Argentina is interesting for a different reason. The market is regulated at the provincial level, so it’s much more decentralized. That creates opportunities because entry can be more flexible, but it also means you need to understand the local landscape and choose partners and regions carefully.

Ramiro Atucha, Board Advisor to Kiron Interactive

Mexico stands out. The size of the market alone makes it attractive, and the current regulation is already acceptable enough for public companies to feel comfortable operating there. It’s also moving toward a more formal framework, so there’s still margin to grow. Beyond Mexico, I’d point to Chile, certain provinces in Argentina, and Colombia. All three have their own dynamics, but they’re markets you can’t ignore right now.

When entering markets that are still evolving from a regulatory perspective, what’s the right balance between moving early and waiting for clarity?

Liam Hoofe, Content Strategist at GameOn

That’s the million-dollar question, and it’s one I’m not sure there is a 100% correct answer to. For me, it’s about building relationships, ensuring you have the right infrastructure in place, and understanding a market before you invest.

Operators and studios that just enter with no understanding of the culture and of the way the regulatory landscape could adapt are putting themselves at risk of failing.

Trying to remain one step ahead of regulation and working alongside the regulators to help the market mature is always going to be a much better approach than just waiting for regulation to come into place and being reactive.

Paulina Hovar, Lead Sales Manager LATAM at BGaming

It depends on how mature the market is.

If the regulatory framework is already clear and established, then the best approach is to operate fully within the licensed model from day one.

But in markets that are still in a gray or transitional stage, where operators are already active, it can make sense to take a more gradual approach. That could mean building partnerships, adapting the product to local needs, and preparing for future regulation before fully committing.

You also have to be very careful about legal and reputational risks. Every market is different, so timing and level of involvement should be assessed on a case-by-case basis.

Ramiro Atucha, Board Advisor to Kiron Interactive

As early as possible, as long as it isn’t illegal or forbidden. That’s the right moment to enter and transition through the regulatory process. Brazil is the clearest example. Sports betting was legalized in 2018, but the full regulatory framework only came in late 2023, with licensed operations starting in 2025. The operators that used those years to attract players, test the market and build name recognition without breaking the law made a real difference. By the time regulation arrived, they were already established.

As markets like Chile, Peru, and Uruguay develop, what will separate the brands that succeed from those that struggle?

Liam Hoofe, Content Strategist at GameOn

The biggest differentiator for me is localisation, and by that, I mean real localisation, not just translating a game into Spanish and calling it a day. This means actually creating products and promotions that speak to local audiences. LatAm is not just some big monolithic market with a one-size-fits-all solution – brands that succeed there are the ones that understand this. The ones who know that a player in Chile is not the same as one in Uruguay or Brazil are going to be the big winners.

On top of that, working closely with regulators and showing genuine concern for players’ well-being in these markets will make a huge difference. It’s not enough anymore to just display simple responsible gambling tools; players want to see it in your actions, and it’s obvious to them which brands really care and which are just ticking boxes.

And finally, local partnerships. Some of the most successful companies we work with are those that really integrate themselves and find local partners that offer genuine insight into communities, and can be leveraged to build trust. This can be achieved in a number of different ways, whether it’s through working with local content creators and influencers or getting involved with local charities and events.

Paulina Hovar, Lead Sales Manager LATAM at BGaming

As markets like Chile, Peru, and Uruguay continue to develop, the following three factors will set successful brands apart from the rest.

First, strong local partnerships. Without people on the ground and a real understanding of how each market works, it’s very difficult to build a sustainable position.

Second, product adaptation. Translation alone is never enough. Companies need proper localization that reflects user behavior, cultural differences, and local audience preferences.

And third, regulatory readiness. The companies that invest early in certification, compliance, and building the right processes will have a major advantage later on. It’s expensive and takes time, but in regulated markets, long-term preparation usually makes the difference between short-term growth and lasting success.

Ramiro Atucha, Board Advisor to Kiron Interactive

Brands that bring international experience and proven competitiveness from other markets, combined with genuine local understanding, will get the best of both worlds. The international background gives you credibility and product depth. The local presence gives you a product that’s actually adapted to how players in that country behave. Neither side works on its own. In Chile, Peru, and Uruguay, the operators who get this combination right are the ones who’ll separate from the pack.