“En el mercado regulado de apuestas sentí que estaba intentando nadar en un océano dominado por tiburones. En el mercado de predicciones, estamos ayudando a construir el propio océano.” (C.S)

El mercado de predicciones comienza a ganar espacio en Brasil en un momento de transformación para la industria del gaming y los productos digitales basados en probabilidades.

Aunque todavía es un concepto incipiente en el país, y contradictorio en países vecinos, este modelo, que combina elementos de mercados financieros, tecnología y comportamiento del usuario, ya ha demostrado su potencial en otras regiones al ofrecer estimaciones colectivas sobre eventos futuros.

Sin embargo, su avance ha sido conflictivo en América Latina.

En mercados como Argentina, por ejemplo, está enfrentado restricciones e incluso prohibiciones, en medio de debates regulatorios sobre su naturaleza y su posible similitud con las apuestas tradicionales.

En este contexto, Brasil aparece como un terreno aún en definición, donde la reciente regulación de las apuestas deportivas abre espacio para discutir nuevos formatos digitales basados en probabilidades.

Es en este escenario donde surge la figura de Carlos Santos, CEO y uno de los impulsores de este segmento en el mercado brasileño con el lanzamiento de Previlabel.

Con experiencia previa en el ecosistema de apuestas, Santos decidió dar un paso más allá del modelo tradicional para apostar por la construcción de una nueva categoría en el país: los mercados de predicción.

A través de su visión y su proyecto, el ejecutivo busca no solo introducir este concepto en Brasil, sino también desarrollar la infraestructura tecnológica necesaria para que nuevos operadores y empresas puedan formar parte de este ecosistema emergente.

En esta entrevista, Carlos Santos analiza el potencial del mercado de predicciones en Brasil, los desafíos de su desarrollo y las oportunidades que pueden definir el futuro de este segmento en la región.

 ¿El mercado de predicciones aún es poco conocido en Brasil. ¿Cómo explicaría este concepto a alguien que nunca ha oído hablar de él?

Los mercados de predicción son plataformas donde las personas negocian probabilidades sobre eventos futuros.

En lugar de simplemente apostar por un resultado, los usuarios compran o venden posiciones basadas en la probabilidad de que algo ocurra.

El precio de estas posiciones termina reflejando lo que el mercado cree que es la probabilidad de ese evento.

Por eso, muchos describen este modelo como una especie de bolsa de valores de probabilidades, donde la información, la opinión y el dinero se combinan para formar una estimación colectiva del futuro.

¿Por qué cree que Brasil puede convertirse en un mercado relevante para plataformas de predicción?
Brasil tiene varios factores que favorecen este tipo de mercado. En primer lugar, es un país altamente conectado digitalmente y con una gran adopción de nuevas tecnologías financieras.

En segundo lugar, existe una cultura muy fuerte en torno a los deportes y a los eventos públicos, lo que genera naturalmente interés por las predicciones.

Además, la reciente regulación de las apuestas deportivas ha abierto espacio para nuevas discusiones sobre productos relacionados con probabilidades y mercados digitales.

El país acaba de regular las apuestas deportivas. ¿Los mercados de predicción son una evolución natural de esto o una industria diferente?
Están relacionados, pero no son exactamente lo mismo.

En las apuestas deportivas tradicionales, las probabilidades son definidas por la casa de apuestas.

En los mercados de predicción, en cambio, son los propios usuarios quienes forman esas probabilidades al negociar posiciones entre sí.

Esto crea una dinámica más cercana a un mercado financiero, donde el precio cambia a medida que surgen nuevas informaciones y las personas ajustan sus expectativas.

¿Cuáles son los principales tipos de eventos que podrían volverse populares en este mercado en Brasil?
El deporte probablemente será el punto de entrada más natural, ya que existe una gran base de usuarios interesados en este tipo de eventos.

Pero con el tiempo, estos mercados pueden expandirse hacia áreas como política, economía, entretenimiento e incluso tecnología.

En otros países ya existen mercados de predicción sobre elecciones, indicadores económicos y grandes eventos globales.

Esto demuestra que el modelo tiene potencial para ir más allá del entretenimiento.

¿Existe el riesgo de que el mercado de predicciones sea confundido con las apuestas tradicionales?
Sí, especialmente al inicio.

Como ambos involucran dinero y probabilidades, es natural que exista cierta confusión. Sin embargo, la diferencia está en la dinámica del mercado.

En las plataformas de predicción, los usuarios pueden negociar probabilidades y reaccionar ante nueva información, lo que hace que el sistema sea más parecido a un mercado financiero que a una apuesta tradicional.

Con el tiempo, a medida que el público entienda mejor el funcionamiento, esta distinción tenderá a ser más clara.

En el exterior, las plataformas de predicción ya existen desde hace tiempo. ¿Qué puede aprender Brasil de estas experiencias?
La principal lección es que estos mercados funcionan mejor cuando hay transparencia, liquidez y reglas claras de operación.

Las experiencias internacionales muestran que, cuando están bien estructurados, los mercados de predicción pueden generar estimaciones bastante precisas sobre eventos futuros. Sin embargo, también ha quedado claro que es fundamental contar con mecanismos de integridad y un entorno regulatorio que acompañe la innovación.

Brasil tiene la ventaja de poder observar estos ejemplos y adaptar las mejores prácticas a su propio contexto.

¿Qué le hizo mirar hacia los mercados de predicción en lugar de continuar únicamente en el mercado tradicional de apuestas?

Durante el último SBC en Lisboa tuve un momento muy claro de reflexión sobre el mercado. Me di cuenta de que estaba intentando competir en un entorno extremadamente difícil para empresas nuevas: enfrentar directamente a gigantes ya consolidados en el sector de apuestas.

El mercado regulado de apuestas en Brasil es altamente competitivo y está dominado por empresas con gran capital. Es como intentar nadar junto a tiburones en un océano que ya les pertenece.

Fue entonces cuando entendí que tal vez la oportunidad no era competir en ese mercado de la forma tradicional, sino participar en la construcción de una nueva categoría dentro del sector. El mercado de predicciones aún está en sus inicios en Brasil, lo que abre espacio para la innovación, la tecnología y el liderazgo.

Percibí que podía aprovechar toda la experiencia adquirida en el sector de apuestas para ayudar a estructurar este nuevo momento del mercado en el país.

¿Cuál fue el momento en que decidió convertir esto en un negocio?
Cuando regresé a Brasil después del SBC Lisboa, mi visión de negocio cambió completamente.

Comencé a estudiar más profundamente el mercado de predicciones y entendí que no era solo una tendencia global, sino también una oportunidad real para construir infraestructura en este sector en Brasil.

A partir de esta visión, iniciamos una asociación con Brasil Bitcoin, aprovechando toda su experiencia en Web3 e infraestructura digital para desarrollar esta tecnología.

La idea fue combinar esa experiencia en blockchain con nuestra visión de producto y mercado, creando una base tecnológica capaz de aportar más competitividad e innovación a este nuevo segmento.

¿Cuáles fueron los mayores desafíos al comenzar en este sector?
El principal desafío fue construir la tecnología.

Los mercados de predicción requieren una infraestructura muy específica, que incluye sistemas de negociación de probabilidades, liquidez, gestión de eventos y mecanismos de integridad.

Como este mercado aún es muy nuevo en Brasil, prácticamente no existían soluciones listas adaptadas a la realidad local. Esto exigió un gran esfuerzo de desarrollo para crear una tecnología sólida capaz de sostener el crecimiento de este ecosistema.

¿El público brasileño está preparado para entender y utilizar los mercados de predicción?

Creo que sí.  El brasileño ya ha demostrado una gran capacidad de adaptación a nuevos productos digitales.

Basta observar el crecimiento de las apuestas deportivas, las criptomonedas y las plataformas financieras en los últimos años.

Cuando el modelo se explica bien y la experiencia es simple, la adopción tiende a ocurrir rápidamente.

¿Qué hace exactamente Previlabel dentro de este mercado?
Previlabel es una empresa de tecnología enfocada en infraestructura para mercados de predicción.

Desarrollamos la tecnología que permite a emprendedores crear sus propias plataformas de predicción y construir negocios dentro de este nuevo segmento que está comenzando a surgir en Brasil.

Nuestro objetivo es facilitar la entrada de nuevos operadores en este mercado.

Ustedes no operan solo una plataforma — venden tecnología para quienes quieren crear la suya. ¿Cómo funciona este modelo?
Exactamente.

Previlabel funciona como un proveedor de tecnología para este mercado. En lugar de operar una única plataforma, desarrollamos la infraestructura que los operadores pueden utilizar para lanzar sus propias marcas dentro del mercado de predicciones.

Esto permite que emprendedores y empresas ingresen en este sector de forma mucho más rápida, sin necesidad de desarrollar toda la tecnología desde cero.

¿Cree que veremos muchas plataformas de predicción surgir en Brasil en los próximos años?
Creo que esto ocurrirá muy rápidamente. En los próximos meses ya deberíamos ver varias plataformas emergiendo en Brasil.

Históricamente, el país siempre ha atraído nuevos modelos de negocio digitales debido al tamaño del mercado y al alto nivel de adopción tecnológica.

Cuando surge un nuevo segmento prometedor, Brasil suele convertirse en uno de los principales mercados de experimentación.

¿Existe una especie de “carrera” para crear el primer gran mercado de predicción brasileño?
Sí, esto es algo natural en cualquier industria naciente.

Cuando un nuevo mercado comienza a formarse, siempre existe una competencia inicial entre empresas para ver quién logra posicionarse primero y convertirse en referencia.

Probablemente estamos en el inicio de este proceso en Brasil, y quien consiga construir una tecnología sólida, ganar la confianza del público y escalar primero tendrá una ventaja muy importante.

The prediction market is beginning to gain traction in Brazil at a time of transformation for the gaming industry and probability-based digital products.

Although it is still an emerging concept in the country,  and a controversial one in neighboring markets, this model, which combines elements of financial markets, technology, and user behavior, has already demonstrated its potential in other regions by offering collective estimations of future events.

However, its development has been uneven across Latin America.

In markets such as Argentina, for example, it has faced restrictions and even bans, amid regulatory debates over its nature and its possible similarity to traditional betting.

In this context, Brazil emerges as a market still in formation, where the recent regulation of sports betting opens the door to discussions around new probability-based digital formats.

It is in this scenario that the figure of Carlos Santos emerges, CEO and one of the promoters of this segment in the Brazilian market with the launch of Previlabel.

With prior experience in the betting ecosystem, Santos chose to move beyond the traditional model and focus on building a new category in the country: prediction markets.

Through his vision and his project, the executive aims not only to introduce this concept in Brazil, but also to develop the technological infrastructure needed for new operators and companies to participate in this emerging ecosystem.

In this interview, Carlos Santos discusses the potential of prediction markets in Brazil, the challenges of their development, and the opportunities that could shape the future of this segment in the region.

Prediction Markets in Brazil

The prediction market is still relatively unknown in Brazil. How would you explain this concept to someone who has never heard of it?
Prediction markets are platforms where people trade probabilities about future events. Instead of simply betting on an outcome, users buy or sell positions based on the likelihood of something happening.

The price of these positions ultimately reflects what the market believes is the probability of that event.

That’s why many people describe this model as a kind of stock exchange for probabilities, where information, opinion, and money come together to form a collective estimate of the future.

Why do you believe Brazil could become a relevant market for prediction platforms?
Brazil has several factors that strongly support this type of market.

First, it is a highly digitally connected country with strong adoption of new financial technologies. Second, there is a strong cultural interest in sports and public events, which naturally drives interest in predictions.

Additionally, the recent regulation of sports betting has opened the door to discussions around products related to probabilities and digital markets.

The country has just regulated sports betting. Are prediction markets a natural evolution of this, or a different industry?
They are related, but not exactly the same. In traditional sports betting, probabilities are set by the bookmaker. In prediction markets, however, users themselves create those probabilities by trading positions with each other.

This creates a dynamic closer to a financial market, where prices change as new information emerges and as people adjust their expectations.

What types of events do you believe could become popular in this market in Brazil?
Sports will likely be the most natural entry point, as there is already a large audience interested in this type of content.

But over time, these markets can expand into areas such as politics, economics, entertainment, and even technology.

In other countries, prediction markets already exist around elections, economic indicators, and major global events.

This shows that the model has the potential to go beyond entertainment.

Is there a risk that prediction markets could be confused with traditional betting?
Yes, especially in the early stages. Since both involve money and probabilities, some confusion is natural. However, the key difference lies in the market dynamics.

In prediction platforms, users can trade probabilities and react to new information, making the system closer to a financial market than a traditional bet.

Over time, as users better understand how it works, this distinction tends to become clearer.

Abroad, prediction platforms have existed for some time. What can Brazil learn from these experiences?
The main lesson is that these markets work best when there is transparency, liquidity, and clear operational rules.

International experiences show that, when well structured, prediction markets can generate highly accurate estimates of future events.

However, they also highlight the importance of integrity mechanisms and a regulatory environment that keeps pace with innovation.

Brazil has the advantage of being able to observe these examples and adapt best practices to its own context.

What made you look at prediction markets instead of continuing only in the traditional betting industry?
At the last SBC in Lisbon, I had a very clear moment of realization about the market.

I understood that I was trying to compete in a very difficult environment for new companies,  going directly against well-established giants in the betting sector.

The regulated betting market in Brazil is extremely competitive and dominated by companies with significant capital.

It’s like trying to swim alongside sharks in an ocean that already belongs to them.

That’s when I realized that the opportunity might not be to compete in that market in the traditional way, but rather to help build a new category within the industry.

Prediction markets are still at an early stage in Brazil, which creates space for innovation, technology, and leadership.

I saw that I could bring all the knowledge I developed in the betting sector to help structure this new phase of the market in the country.

When did you decide to turn this into a business?
When I returned to Brazil after SBC Lisbon, my business perspective changed completely.

I began studying prediction markets more deeply and realized that this was not just a global trend, but also a real opportunity to build infrastructure for this sector in Brazil.

From that point, we started a partnership with Mercado Bitcoin, leveraging the company’s expertise in Web3 and digital infrastructure to develop this technology.

The idea was to combine this blockchain experience with our product and market vision, creating a technological foundation capable of bringing more competitiveness and innovation to this new segment.

What were the biggest challenges when starting in this sector?
The main challenge was building the technology.

Prediction markets require very specific infrastructure, including probability trading systems, liquidity management, event handling, and integrity mechanisms.

Since this is still a very new market in Brazil, there were virtually no ready-made solutions adapted to the local reality.

This required a significant development effort to build a robust technology capable of supporting the growth of this ecosystem.

Is the Brazilian public ready to understand and use prediction markets?
I believe so. Brazilians have already demonstrated a strong ability to adapt to new digital products.

Just look at the growth of sports betting, cryptocurrencies, and financial platforms in recent years.

When the model is well explained and the user experience is simple, adoption tends to happen quickly.

What exactly does Previlabel do within this market?
Previlabel is a technology company focused on infrastructure for prediction markets.

We develop the technology that allows entrepreneurs to create their own prediction platforms and build businesses within this new segment that is starting to emerge in Brazil.

Our goal is to make it easier for new operators to enter this market.

You don’t operate just one platform,  you sell technology for others to build their own. How does this model work?
Exactly. Previlabel operates as a technology provider for this market. Instead of running a single platform, we develop the infrastructure that operators can use to launch their own brands within the prediction market space.

This allows entrepreneurs and companies to enter the sector much faster, without needing to build the entire technology from scratch.

Do you believe we will see many prediction platforms emerging in Brazil in the coming years?
I believe this will happen very quickly. In the coming months, we should already see several platforms emerging in Brazil.

Historically, the country has always attracted new digital business models due to the size of its market and the high level of technological engagement.

When a promising new segment appears, Brazil often becomes one of the main markets for experimentation.

Is there a kind of “race” to create the first major Brazilian prediction market?
Yes, this is natural in any emerging industry.

When a new market begins to take shape, there is always an initial competition between companies to see who can position themselves first and become a reference.

We are likely at the beginning of this process in Brazil, and those who manage to build solid technology, gain user trust, and scale quickly will have a significant advantage.

As the industry prepares for BiS SiGMA South America 2026, the largest and most influential iGaming event in Latin America, real market data begins to reveal a profound transformation in the behavior of the Brazilian consumer.

It is no longer just about “betting volume”, but about a reconfiguration of the Share of Wallet (participation in household spending).

The unprecedented study “Bets na Mesa, Consumo em Jogo”, carried out by NielsenIQ Brazil, sheds light on a reality that will be the center of technical debates at the Transamerica Expo Center: in 2025, 26.3% of Brazilian households participated in some form of betting.

This figure is not just a number; it is the reflection of a “new parallel shopper journey” that is capturing the attention and income of the population.

Radiography of Consumption: Who and what is being bet?

The Brazilian market in 2026 shows a clear fragmentation.

Despite the explosion of digital platforms, traditional modalities maintain notable resilience, creating a hybrid ecosystem between analog and digital.

Dominant Modalities

According to the NielsenIQ study, preferences are distributed as follows:
• Mega-Sena: 15.8% of households.
• Video Slots (such as the “Jogo do Tigrinho”): 7.7%.
• Jogo do Bicho: 3.9%.
• Sports Betting (Bets): 3.6%.

Socioeconomic and generational profiles in Brazil

The study reveals that bettors are not a homogeneous group. There is a marked division by Socioeconomic Level (SEL) and age:

• The Slots phenomenon: The “Jogo do Tigrinho” concentrates bettors from middle SEL (63.3%) and a notably young audience, with 42.4% of bettors up to 35 years old.

• The maturity of Mega-Sena: It predominates in high SEL (45.5%) and in a more mature profile, where 49.1% are over 51 years old.

As Gabriel Fagundes, Insights Leader for the Industry at NielsenIQ, points out: “We had already identified that betting became a popular and common practice in the routine of the Brazilian consumer.”

“Now, the numbers also point to the dimension that this practice is taking within household expenses and in the income of bettors.”

The Economic Motivation: Extra Income or Entertainment?

One of the most critical points for operators that will meet at BiS SiGMA is to understand the “why” behind betting.

The data from 2026 shows a diffuse frontier between gambling as leisure and gambling as economic hope.

For 49% of bettors, the main motivation is to obtain extra income, while 43.5% expect a “radical change of life”.

This second profile is more common in casual Mega-Sena players.

Classification by Intensity

The market is divided into three levels of commitment:

1. Casual (73%): They play at least once a month.
2. “Pro” (28%): They bet once a week. From this group, 65.8% seek extra income.
3. “Elite” (9.3%): They bet weekly and spend more than R$ 100 per month.

This “gaming intensity” is, according to the study, the real driver of the economic impact on households, especially in the Northeast regions (29% penetration) and South (28.3%).

The Impact on Retail and the Consumption Basket

For the iGaming industry, understanding which expenses are being substituted is vital for sustainability and social responsibility.

The study reveals that only 10% of households admit substituting expenses directly for betting, but the affected categories are alarming.

Affected Categories

Among those who substitute expenses:
• Food: 47% of the cases.
• Fixed bills (water, electricity, internet): 45.3%.
• Beer: It is the category with the greatest retraction, registering a drop of 1.7 percentage points in the participation of spending.
• Cookies, perfumes and soft drinks: They also present negative impacts.

The main strategy of the consumer to accommodate spending on betting has been to reduce the quantity of items purchased; in fact, 60% of the consumption categories registered a decrease in the volume acquired in 2025.

Strategic Challenges for the Legal Market in 2026

The NielsenIQ data presents a direct challenge for brands and operators that seek to consolidate themselves in “Legal Brazil”.

The pressure on the domestic budget forces manufacturers of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and betting operators to compete for the same currency.

“Betting is a new competitor in the consumer’s Share of Wallet.

This pressures manufacturers to act with more precision in communication, price and activation to recover relevance in front of this new competitor: the habit of betting itself.”

Towards BiS SiGMA 2026

As we approach the largest event in the region, this study serves as a warning and an opportunity. The Brazilian market of 2026 is mature, but it is under intense social scrutiny due to the impact on low-income families.

Operators that wish to have long-term success must:

1. Differentiate the profiles: It is not possible to treat the young middle SEL slot player the same as the high SEL Mega-Sena bettor.
2. Promote Responsible Gaming: The substitution of food and fixed bills for betting is a regulatory “red flag” that could tighten laws in the near future.
3. Regional Innovation: The Northeast and the South are the markets with the highest intensity, requiring more aggressive localization strategies.

BiS SiGMA South America will be the perfect stage to discuss how the industry can grow without compromising the economic stability of Brazilian households, ensuring that iGaming is seen as entertainment and not as an unsustainable financial burden.

Superscore consolidates in Brazil and launches weekly analysis for the press.

The platform offers statistical analysis of the Brazilian Championship and of the main national and international championships, such as the Copa Libertadores, the World Cup and the Champions League, among others, with metrics that go beyond goals and assists for fans and sports experts.

Superscore Insights is the new newsletter for the press, with a weekly publication and another analysis of the latest news.

Superscore, a sports intelligence application associated with Superbet, advances and consolidates itself in Brazil as a strategic platform to transform data into reliable information for football fans in real time and without advertising.

With its own methodology, the solution establishes itself as a reference among sports fans, bringing together advanced statistics, rankings and in-depth analysis of the main tournaments, players and coaches in the country.

Now, the platform takes a new step with the launch of Superscore Insights, expanding its collaboration with the press by offering even more solid analysis, contextualized data and specialized support for sports coverage.

On Mondays, journalists will receive an exclusive bulletin with deep and original analysis of the weekend matches, a specialized analysis of the most important events of the day, as well as predictions and statistics of upcoming events.

With global coverage, Superscore already gathers more than 1,900 competitions, 63,000 teams and more than 480,000 monitored players, offering a solid base for historical and real-time analysis.

The data from Superscore comes from leading partners worldwide in the collection and distribution of sports data, the same ones used by Superbet and the main companies in the sector.

These providers offer high precision, low latency and comprehensive coverage of competitions worldwide.

“Superscore was born as a free sports intelligence application, without advertising, that goes beyond the basics by offering a wide database and statistics for those who want to understand the game in depth.

 In just one year, it has already achieved thousands of users and grows approximately 30% monthly, climbing positions in the Google Play ranking.”

“The platform offers a solid experience for both fans and professionals, in addition to facilitating more informed decisions in sports betting, thus reinforcing the commitment to responsible gaming,” states Patrícia Prates, Marketing Director of Superbet and of the alliance with Superscore.

Superscore: Exclusive data and decades of history

In a context where sports coverage increasingly requires qualified data and contextualization, Superscore distinguishes itself by going beyond traditional indicators, incorporating metrics such as accurate shots, passes in the offensive third, tackles, recoveries, participation in decisive plays and time on the field, among other indicators.

These data are translated into the Superscore Score, a proprietary index that allows building Top 5 or Top 10 rankings of the best players of each round, with graphical visualizations and quick analysis.

Another differentiating factor is the expanded historical database, which gathers information from the Brazilian Championship since 1937, the Copa Libertadores since 1960 and the Champions League since 1992, which allows comparative analysis and identifying patterns over decades.

“We are talking about a platform built on a solid technological base, which combines a large volume of unique data, history and a team prepared to transform this information into relevant content for football fans.

Superscore organizes and translates these data so that they can also be used in sports coverage,” states Guilherme Simantob, director of Superscore in Brazil.

Superscore offers free and integrable widgets for the press and content creators, facilitating the incorporation of statistics, graphics and comparisons directly into articles, enriching journalistic narrative with reliable and visually accessible data.

The app is available in the App Store and Google Play.

Reevo arrives in Brazil with Betsson

Reevo has expanded its presence in Latin America after launching its aggregation platform and its own games catalog in Brazil in collaboration with Betsson.

The integration, carried out through a single connection, allows the operator to expand its content offering with Reevo’s own titles and third-party titles.

The movement reinforces the alliance between both companies and is part of a growth strategy in regulated markets, especially Brazil, considered one of the most promising in the region after regulatory advances.

From Betsson, Andrea Rossi highlighted the impact of the agreement by stating that the incorporation of Reevo’s content “expands the entertainment offer available for our players in one of the fastest-growing markets in the region.”

Additionally, both companies anticipated new joint expansions in other markets, after a recent launch also in Mexico.

Reevo continues to bet on its aggregation model as a way to facilitate access to multiple studios through a single integration, while expanding its global distribution network.

BTG launches prediction platform and increases the dispute between banks, stock exchange and betting

The launch of BTG Trends by BTG Pactual marks a new chapter in the growth of prediction markets in Brazil, intensifying competition between banks, the stock exchange and the betting sector.

This new platform allows investors to operate binary contracts (“yes” or “no”) based on probabilities about financial events, such as the dollar, the Ibovespa or interest rate decisions, using already regulated derivative instruments.

The movement is not isolated. The Brazilian stock exchange (B3) also advances in this direction, with the development of financial event contracts and digital derivatives, although restricted to professional investors.

At the same time, the platform XP established a partnership with Kalshi, facilitating access for Brazilian investors to international predictive markets, while new startups such as VoxFi explore broader applications, including geopolitics and culture.

At a global level, these markets have gained relevance and volume, driven by platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi.

However, their regulation continues to be a subject under debate. In the United States, the CFTC considers these contracts as financial derivatives, although discussions still exist about limits and risks, especially in sensitive events.

In Brazil, authorities, including the CVM and the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting, are already analyzing how to frame these activities from a regulatory point of view, especially when they overlap with sports events.

The advance of these products has also generated reaction from the betting sector.

The Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) maintains that, when there is money involved in uncertain events, it is essentially betting, regardless of the format, and warns about risks such as unfair competition and lower consumer protection if they operate outside the regulated framework.

The main difference between betting and prediction markets lies in their structure: in betting, the user plays against the house, while in prediction markets prices are formed among participants and reflect collective probabilities.

Even so, the boundary between both models remains diffuse.

With banks, stock exchange and new platforms advancing simultaneously, prediction markets stop being an emerging trend and become a new field of dispute within the financial system.

The regulatory framework is still under construction, and the evolution of the sector will depend on how the limits between investment and betting are defined as these products scale.