Canada
Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare
Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
Powered by WPeMatico
Fennica Gaming has announced that it has been granted a gaming supplier license in Ontario, Canada. This milestone marks a significant step in the company’s expansion strategy, allowing it to offer its cutting-edge gaming experiences to gaming operators in one of North America’s most dynamic regulated markets.
The supplier license, granted by the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario (AGCO), enables Fennica Gaming to introduce its portfolio of entertaining and high-quality games to gaming operators across the province. This registration empowers Ontarian operators, whether online or land-based, to access the omnichannel offerings developed in the Nordics.
“We are thrilled to receive our B2B supplier license in Ontario and to offer our advanced gaming solutions to operators in the region. After a thorough application process, we can now proudly and prominently display our registration and achievement. We have followed the market in North America for a long time and Ontario is an excellent example of market that is well organized. It represents an exciting market with immense potential, and we are committed to delivering secure, entertaining, and trustworthy gaming experiences tailored to local preferences,” Timo Kiiskinen, Managing Director of Fennica Gaming, said.
Fennica Gaming’s Nordic gaming experience and heritage as an omni-channel gaming operator through its parent company Veikkaus offers a broad range of entertainment for Ontarian operators with a player-first attitude. This registration supports Fennica Gaming’s commitment to a sustainable industry, enabling operation in compliance with Ontario’s local regulatory framework.
The post Fennica Gaming Granted Supplier License for Ontario Market appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
GeoComply, the global leader in geolocation security and fraud prevention, today announced the appointment of Kip Levin as its new Chief Executive Officer, effective Tuesday, March 4th. This strategic move reinforces GeoComply’s commitment to delivering cutting-edge solutions and driving success for its customers.
Kip Levin brings a wealth of experience to GeoComply, having served in various senior leadership roles at Flutter Entertainment over the past decade including CEO of the US business and President of FanDuel. Prior to that he spent 12 years at Ticketmaster where he led the product and ecommerce teams and oversaw the company’s expansion into mobile and resale. His proven track record in driving growth and innovation within dynamic, technology-driven markets positions him to enhance GeoComply’s ability to serve its customers.
This transition allows co-founder Anna Sainsbury to step into the role of Executive Chairman, where she will focus on strategic vision and governance, ensuring GeoComply continues to anticipate and meet the evolving needs of its customers. Co-founder David Briggs will shift his focus to Product and Innovation, leveraging his expertise to drive cutting-edge solutions as he moves from his previous role as CPTO.
“We are thrilled to welcome Kip Levin to GeoComply,” said Anna Sainsbury, Executive Chairman. “His extensive experience and strategic vision are perfectly aligned with our commitment to delivering exceptional value to our customers. I am confident that under his leadership, GeoComply will continue to innovate and expand its global footprint, ensuring we remain at the forefront of geolocation security and fraud prevention. This transition enables me to dedicate more time to our long-term strategic direction, focusing on how we can better serve our partners.”
Kip Levin expressed his enthusiasm for joining GeoComply, stating, “I am incredibly excited to join GeoComply, a company with a strong reputation for innovation and a commitment to customer success. The opportunities in this space are immense, and I look forward to working with Anna, David, and the entire GeoComply team to build on the company’s success and drive further growth for our clients. My experience in scaling businesses and driving product innovation will be instrumental as we navigate the evolving landscape of geolocation technology, ensuring we provide our customers with the most reliable and effective solutions.”
David Briggs, focusing on Product and Innovation, added, “With Kip joining us, I am eager to dedicate my full attention to driving innovation and developing groundbreaking solutions that directly address our customers’ challenges. This is an exciting time for GeoComply, and I am confident that our combined expertise will enable us to deliver even greater value to our clients, strengthening our partnerships.”
GeoComply is poised for continued success as it leverages Kip Levin’s leadership and the founders’ renewed focus on strategic vision and innovation. The company remains committed to providing its clients with the most reliable and advanced geolocation security and fraud prevention solutions, acting as a trusted partner in their success.
The post GeoComply welcomes Kip Levin as CEO, driving customer-focused innovation and growth appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
BCLC has reminded the public to be cautious of a series of social media scams that imitate B.C. casinos and trick individuals into providing their financial details on illegitimate websites.
Highly deceptive, these scams share fraudulent posts and advertisements exploiting the logos, names, and exterior images of local B.C. casinos, and may claim to offer players exclusive bonuses and promotions if they register with their website or mobile application. BCLC warns that none of these sites are associated with casinos in B.C. or BCLC.
PlayNow.com is the only online gambling website permitted to operate in B.C. BCLC’s official apps are BCLC Lotto!, PlayNow Poker BC, and PlayNow BC Sportsbook. All BCLC-operated social media accounts, such as BCLC, PlayNow BC, PlayNow Sports, Lotto BC and Casinos BC, are verified with a checkmark.
While BCLC and its casino partners continue to work on having the posts removed, British Columbians should stay vigilant when it comes to these predatory and sophisticated scams.
To protect themselves, individuals are encouraged to:
• Be on alert when a website or app asks for personal or financial information. BCLC’s verified websites and apps will never ask for your social insurance number (SIN), banking information or credit card details online to claim a prize from a B.C. casino.
• Carefully check the URL and domain of the website to verify its legitimacy. Often, scammers will use a similar URL and domain to legitimate websites with a minor spelling difference.
• Always verify the company and its services are real before providing any personal information.
• Look out for other red flags, such as the suggestion of fees or taxes to be paid on a prize. There are no fees or taxes on prizes won in Canada.
If individuals feel unsure about an account, post or advertisement claiming to represent a B.C. casino, they can contact BCLC directly by calling the Customer Support Centre at 1-866-815-0222, or using the live chat resource on corporate.bclc.com or PlayNow.com.
The post BCLC Reminds Public to be Cautious of Illegal Online Casino Scams appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
-
Brazil7 days agoDelasport’s Full Platform Now Certified in Brazil
-
ADG6 days ago
Attention: Important Information from the Arizona Department of Gaming Regarding Reporting Gambling Winnings on Taxes
-
Dario Leiman Head of Business Development in Latin America at SOFTSWISS7 days ago
SOFTSWISS Promotes Dario Leiman to Head of Business Development in Latin America
-
Australia7 days ago
The Star Forced into Trading Halt After Failing to Publish Financial Results
-
Africa7 days ago
Vegas Kings Welcomes Catie Di Stefano as Vegas Queen
-
Brazil6 days ago
GoldenRace secures Brazil’s potential with new certification
-
CT Gamin6 days ago
Peruvian Market Grows with Multiple New Installations
-
Canada7 days ago
GeoComply welcomes Kip Levin as CEO, driving customer-focused innovation and growth
