The prediction market is beginning to gain traction in Brazil at a time of transformation for the gaming industry and probability-based digital products.

Although it is still an emerging concept in the country,  and a controversial one in neighboring markets, this model, which combines elements of financial markets, technology, and user behavior, has already demonstrated its potential in other regions by offering collective estimations of future events.

However, its development has been uneven across Latin America.

In markets such as Argentina, for example, it has faced restrictions and even bans, amid regulatory debates over its nature and its possible similarity to traditional betting.

In this context, Brazil emerges as a market still in formation, where the recent regulation of sports betting opens the door to discussions around new probability-based digital formats.

It is in this scenario that the figure of Carlos Santos emerges, CEO and one of the promoters of this segment in the Brazilian market with the launch of Previlabel.

With prior experience in the betting ecosystem, Santos chose to move beyond the traditional model and focus on building a new category in the country: prediction markets.

Through his vision and his project, the executive aims not only to introduce this concept in Brazil, but also to develop the technological infrastructure needed for new operators and companies to participate in this emerging ecosystem.

In this interview, Carlos Santos discusses the potential of prediction markets in Brazil, the challenges of their development, and the opportunities that could shape the future of this segment in the region.

Prediction Markets in Brazil

The prediction market is still relatively unknown in Brazil. How would you explain this concept to someone who has never heard of it?
Prediction markets are platforms where people trade probabilities about future events. Instead of simply betting on an outcome, users buy or sell positions based on the likelihood of something happening.

The price of these positions ultimately reflects what the market believes is the probability of that event.

That’s why many people describe this model as a kind of stock exchange for probabilities, where information, opinion, and money come together to form a collective estimate of the future.

Why do you believe Brazil could become a relevant market for prediction platforms?
Brazil has several factors that strongly support this type of market.

First, it is a highly digitally connected country with strong adoption of new financial technologies. Second, there is a strong cultural interest in sports and public events, which naturally drives interest in predictions.

Additionally, the recent regulation of sports betting has opened the door to discussions around products related to probabilities and digital markets.

The country has just regulated sports betting. Are prediction markets a natural evolution of this, or a different industry?
They are related, but not exactly the same. In traditional sports betting, probabilities are set by the bookmaker. In prediction markets, however, users themselves create those probabilities by trading positions with each other.

This creates a dynamic closer to a financial market, where prices change as new information emerges and as people adjust their expectations.

What types of events do you believe could become popular in this market in Brazil?
Sports will likely be the most natural entry point, as there is already a large audience interested in this type of content.

But over time, these markets can expand into areas such as politics, economics, entertainment, and even technology.

In other countries, prediction markets already exist around elections, economic indicators, and major global events.

This shows that the model has the potential to go beyond entertainment.

Is there a risk that prediction markets could be confused with traditional betting?
Yes, especially in the early stages. Since both involve money and probabilities, some confusion is natural. However, the key difference lies in the market dynamics.

In prediction platforms, users can trade probabilities and react to new information, making the system closer to a financial market than a traditional bet.

Over time, as users better understand how it works, this distinction tends to become clearer.

Abroad, prediction platforms have existed for some time. What can Brazil learn from these experiences?
The main lesson is that these markets work best when there is transparency, liquidity, and clear operational rules.

International experiences show that, when well structured, prediction markets can generate highly accurate estimates of future events.

However, they also highlight the importance of integrity mechanisms and a regulatory environment that keeps pace with innovation.

Brazil has the advantage of being able to observe these examples and adapt best practices to its own context.

What made you look at prediction markets instead of continuing only in the traditional betting industry?
At the last SBC in Lisbon, I had a very clear moment of realization about the market.

I understood that I was trying to compete in a very difficult environment for new companies,  going directly against well-established giants in the betting sector.

The regulated betting market in Brazil is extremely competitive and dominated by companies with significant capital.

It’s like trying to swim alongside sharks in an ocean that already belongs to them.

That’s when I realized that the opportunity might not be to compete in that market in the traditional way, but rather to help build a new category within the industry.

Prediction markets are still at an early stage in Brazil, which creates space for innovation, technology, and leadership.

I saw that I could bring all the knowledge I developed in the betting sector to help structure this new phase of the market in the country.

When did you decide to turn this into a business?
When I returned to Brazil after SBC Lisbon, my business perspective changed completely.

I began studying prediction markets more deeply and realized that this was not just a global trend, but also a real opportunity to build infrastructure for this sector in Brazil.

From that point, we started a partnership with Mercado Bitcoin, leveraging the company’s expertise in Web3 and digital infrastructure to develop this technology.

The idea was to combine this blockchain experience with our product and market vision, creating a technological foundation capable of bringing more competitiveness and innovation to this new segment.

What were the biggest challenges when starting in this sector?
The main challenge was building the technology.

Prediction markets require very specific infrastructure, including probability trading systems, liquidity management, event handling, and integrity mechanisms.

Since this is still a very new market in Brazil, there were virtually no ready-made solutions adapted to the local reality.

This required a significant development effort to build a robust technology capable of supporting the growth of this ecosystem.

Is the Brazilian public ready to understand and use prediction markets?
I believe so. Brazilians have already demonstrated a strong ability to adapt to new digital products.

Just look at the growth of sports betting, cryptocurrencies, and financial platforms in recent years.

When the model is well explained and the user experience is simple, adoption tends to happen quickly.

What exactly does Previlabel do within this market?
Previlabel is a technology company focused on infrastructure for prediction markets.

We develop the technology that allows entrepreneurs to create their own prediction platforms and build businesses within this new segment that is starting to emerge in Brazil.

Our goal is to make it easier for new operators to enter this market.

You don’t operate just one platform,  you sell technology for others to build their own. How does this model work?
Exactly. Previlabel operates as a technology provider for this market. Instead of running a single platform, we develop the infrastructure that operators can use to launch their own brands within the prediction market space.

This allows entrepreneurs and companies to enter the sector much faster, without needing to build the entire technology from scratch.

Do you believe we will see many prediction platforms emerging in Brazil in the coming years?
I believe this will happen very quickly. In the coming months, we should already see several platforms emerging in Brazil.

Historically, the country has always attracted new digital business models due to the size of its market and the high level of technological engagement.

When a promising new segment appears, Brazil often becomes one of the main markets for experimentation.

Is there a kind of “race” to create the first major Brazilian prediction market?
Yes, this is natural in any emerging industry.

When a new market begins to take shape, there is always an initial competition between companies to see who can position themselves first and become a reference.

We are likely at the beginning of this process in Brazil, and those who manage to build solid technology, gain user trust, and scale quickly will have a significant advantage.