Gaming executives report a positive outlook on future industry conditions as key performance indicators continue to improve. At the same time, emerging risks – particularly from prediction market platforms offering sports event contracts – are increasingly shaping industry concerns, according to the American Gaming Association (AGA) Gaming Industry Outlook.

The Gaming Conditions Index (GCI) shows real economic activity – measured across gaming revenue, employment, wages, executive sentiment, and casino hotel event activity – grew 1.5 percent year-over-year, reflecting sustained confidence and momentum in the industry.

“The legal state- and tribal-regulated gaming industry continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability in a dynamic economic environment. Operators are focused on investing in innovation and delivering world-class entertainment, while also navigating an evolving competitive and regulatory landscape,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller.

Key Findings Include:

• More than 60 percent of executives expect increased capital investment, higher revenues, and stronger balance sheets over the next six to 12 months.

• Executive sentiment reached its highest level since Q3 2022, with a 21.4 percent net positive outlook across key business indicators.

• 62 percent of executives plan to increase capital investments over the next six to 12 months, while promotional activity is expected to decline for the second consecutive survey.

Emerging Threats

Despite strong fundamentals, prediction markets offering sports event contracts have emerged as a leading concern, with 81 percent of executives identifying them as a “very significant” risk to the regulated gaming industry.

“Illegal sports betting through sports event contracts is increasingly encroaching on legal, state-and tribal-regulated operators. It’s clear the legal, regulated industry views this is a threat, and will continue to fight back and protect the integrity of our industry,” said Miller.

Executives also cited several additional evolving risks impacting operations:

• Inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical risk continue to be major factors limiting operations, while federal regulatory concerns increased sharply.

• 54 percent of respondents cite employee wages as the top expense pressure, followed by tax and regulatory policy changes.

• 42 percent pointed to competition from new forms of gaming (up from 25 percent in Q3 2025).

Methodology

The AGA Gaming Industry Outlook is prepared biannually by Oxford Economics. It provides a timely measure of recent industry growth and future expectations based on executive sentiment, gaming activity, and economic indicators. The Q1 2026 survey was conducted between March 23 and April 8, 2026. A total of 26 executives participated, representing senior level AGA member executives from major international and domestic gaming companies, gaming equipment suppliers, and iGaming and sports betting operators.

The U.S. commercial gaming industry reached a record high in 2025, generating $78.72 billion in gross gaming revenue (GGR), a 9.2% increase over the previous year, according to the American Gaming Association’s (AGA) Commercial Gaming Revenue Tracker. In 2025, legal, state-regulated gaming generated $18.09 billion in gaming tax revenue, supporting state and local education, infrastructure, and other services across the country, up 15.1% over last year.

“For another year, legal commercial gaming in the United States has delivered exceptional results for consumers, operators, and the communities we serve. These record revenues and tax contributions demonstrate the broad appeal of regulated gaming markets and why strong state oversight remains essential as our industry evolves,” said Bill Miller, President and CEO of the American Gaming Association.

Growth Across the Industry in 2025:

• Traditional Gaming generated $50.94 billion in revenue, up 2.3%, while contributing $11.33 billion in taxes, a 7.2% increase.

• Sports Betting revenue rose to $16.96 billion, a 22.8% increase, on a total handle of $166.94 billion (+11.0%). State-regulated sportsbooks generated $3.71 billion in taxes, up 32.4% year-over-year.

• iGaming reached $10.74 billion in revenue (+27.6%) and delivered $2.59 billion in taxes, a 36.9% increase.

All 38 commercial gaming markets saw annual revenue increases in 2025. These figures reinforce strong consumer enthusiasm for legal, regulated gaming and highlight the expanding economic impact of state-regulated markets.

Protecting State- and Tribal-Regulated Gaming

Industry leaders and lawmakers continue to take a stand against prediction markets offering sports contracts outside state and tribal regulatory frameworks. These platforms operate without state oversight, are not subject to the same consumer protection and responsible gaming standards, and do not contribute tax revenue.

Even with a record state-regulated gaming tax impact in 2025, the AGA estimates that prediction markets offering sports event contracts have diverted more than $500 million in potential sports betting tax revenue to date.

“With 2025 marking another record year, the industry’s performance reinforces a clear principle. Sports betting belongs under state and tribal regulation. That’s how consumers are protected and how communities share in the benefits,” added Miller.

The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimates that Americans will wager a record $1.76 billion legally on Super Bowl LX. This figure reflects the continued growth and strength of the legal, state- and tribal-regulated sports betting market.

“No single event brings fans together like the Super Bowl, and this record figure shows just how much Americans enjoy sports betting as part of the experience. By choosing legal, regulated sportsbooks, fans are having fun while supporting a safe and responsible market,” said Bill Miller, AGA President and CEO.

A new AGA study shows that prediction markets are confusing consumers by promoting sports betting as an investment rather than entertainment, underscoring concerns about how these products are marketed and their lack of responsible gaming tools.

Confusion Around Regulatory Oversight

78% of sports event contract bettors believe state regulators could assist in resolving disputes on their platform, even though prediction markets operate entirely outside state sports betting regulatory frameworks. These findings underscore widespread confusion among sports event contract users on the regulatory oversight governing prediction markets.

Perceptions of Gambling and Investment

Sports event contract bettors are three times more likely than sportsbook bettors to frame their trading as an investment: 28% of sports event contract bettors describe their activity as investing, compared to 9% of sportsbook users.

Additionally:

• 31% of sports event contract bettors report encountering trading or investing comparisons in platform messaging, versus 7% among sportsbook users.

• 25% of sports event contract bettors report funding activity from their investment budget, compared to only 9% of sportsbook users.

• Though more than a quarter of sports event contract bettors believe they are investing, most sports event contract users (58%) still view the activity as gambling, suggesting at least some users distinguish between platform messaging and underlying risk.

Access to Responsible Gaming Tools

Only 28% of sports event contract bettors say responsible gaming tools are easy to find on their platform, compared to 58% of sportsbook users, reflecting substantially lower visibility and accessibility of safeguards on prediction market platforms.

“This research reinforces why state- and tribal-regulated sportsbooks are critical, offering strong oversight and consumer protections that prediction markets simply do not match,” added Miller.