Canada

Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare

Published

5 years ago

October 30, 2020

Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency

Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.

On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.

The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.

To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).

Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.

In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.

In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?

Not enough data, captain

But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.

Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.

Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.

Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.

Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…

In polls, we trust

In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.

If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?

Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.

And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.

So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?

Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.

While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.

That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.

We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.

And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.

His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?

We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.

What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.

Brooke Hilton Head of Casino at PointsBet Canada

Ezugi and PointsBet join forces to bring expanded live gaming to Ontario

Published

2 days ago

January 21, 2026

GamingAmericas.com

ezugi-and-pointsbet-join-forces-to-bring-expanded-live-gaming-to-ontario

Ezugi is excited to unveil a new collaboration with PointsBet, a leading iGaming operator in Canada.

As a division of Evolution since 2018, Ezugi keeps enhancing its foothold in the live gaming sector. This partnership will see Ezugi’s localized and unique live-dealer games incorporated into PointsBet’s online casino in Ontario through Evolution’s One Stop Shop (OSS) platform.

Established in Australia in 2015 and later branching into North America, PointsBet has quickly emerged as one of Ontario’s most rapidly expanding iGaming companies. Known for its cutting-edge sportsbook and growing casino offerings, PointsBet is committed to delivering an outstanding player experience, prioritizing Responsible Gaming to create a safe and secure space for every user.

Through this partnership, PointsBet Ontario customers will access Ezugi’s innovative live casino offerings, which include popular games like Canada Blackjack, EZ Baccarat, and Ultimate Roulette. These titles effortlessly integrate reliable, real-time live gaming with engaging digital elements that greatly attract North American players.

Brooke Hilton, Head of Casino at PointsBet Canada, said: “We’re excited to partner with Ezugi to bring their innovative live-dealer games to our Ontario players. This integration via Evolution’s platform enhances our casino offerings with dynamic, localised titles like Canada Blackjack and Ultimate Roulette, ensuring a premium, responsible gaming experience that aligns with our commitment to player safety and enjoyment.”

James Smith, Commercial Strategy Manager at Ezugi, said: “We are thrilled to team up with PointsBet in Ontario. We recognise Ontario as a key growth region and this partnership with a top tier operator marks an important step in our mission to bring Ezugi’s unique & exciting live casino content to the forefront for players in North America.”

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Canada

Fennica Gaming Expands its Partnership with Loto-Québec by Launching eInstant Games

Published

1 week ago

January 15, 2026

GamingAmericas.com

fennica-gaming-expands-its-partnership-with-loto-quebec-by-launching-einstant-games

Building on the momentum of its successful market entry, Fennica Gaming announced the expansion of its partnership with Loto-Québec by launching also its portfolio of eInstant games. This second phase follows the recent successful launch of Fennica Gaming’s online casino games, making its full suite of innovative online games available to players on Loto-Québec’s digital platform, the only legal online gaming offer in the province of Québec.

The launch of the eInstant portfolio completes the initial offering, delivering a diverse and engaging gaming experience designed with Fennica Gaming’s signature player-first approach. The move solidifies Fennica Gaming’s commitment to the Canadian market and its strategy of building long-term, sustainable partnerships with regulated lotteries and operators.

“Launching our casino games was the first step; following it up swiftly with our eInstants is about delivering on our promise. Our partnership with Loto-Québec is built on shared values of responsibility and providing engaging, high-quality entertainment. This isn’t just a content drop; it’s a commitment to our partner’s long-term success and to bringing fresh, reliable gaming experiences to the players in Québec,” said Joni Hovi, SVP of Customers and Marketing at Fennica Gaming.

“Our eInstants are designed with a Nordic innovativeness; they are intuitive, visually engaging, and extremely entertaining – built for sustainable fun. We’ve added the best of mobile gaming expertise, seasoned it with a high-quality, player-centric experience. We are confident that this creative energy offers a distinct flavour that will stand out and connect with players in Québec,” said Kirsi Lagus, SVP of Portfolio and Product Development.

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Canada

CGA Announces Leadership Evolution and 2026 Board of Directors

Published

1 week ago

January 14, 2026

GamingAmericas.com

cga-announces-leadership-evolution-and-2026-board-of-directors

Amanda Brewer becomes Senior Vice President of Policy & Communications and Brandon Aboultaif becomes Vice President of Western Canada; Salim Adatia (GLI) and Mike Maodus (Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP) join the CGA Board as Scott Vanderwel (PointsBet Canada) is appointed Chair.

Amanda Brewer has joined the Canadian Gaming Association (CGA) as Senior Vice President of Policy and Communications, and Brandon Aboultaif has assumed the position of Vice President for Western Canada.

Amanda has served as a consultant to the Association for over 15 years, playing a pivotal role in achieving numerous CGA milestones. “I am confident she will apply her enthusiasm and expertise to this new position, which more precisely aligns with her ongoing contributions on behalf of our members,” said Paul Burns, President and CEO, CGA. Amanda remains actively engaged in AML and advertising bill initiatives in Ottawa, along with the Alberta consultation process, where the Association is collaborating with the Government of Alberta and AGLC to prepare the province for its iGaming market launch.

Brandon is the former Press Secretary to Dale Nally, Minister of Service Alberta and Red Tape Reduction and will be a great addition to the CGA. “With the Alberta market soon opening, it has been an important goal to expand our presence into the western part of the country,” added Mr. Burns. His key responsibilities include advancing industry research and education initiatives, supporting member engagement across Western Canada, and fostering collaboration on responsible gaming, innovation, and market development initiatives that strengthen Canada’s gaming ecosystem.

In addition, Salim Adatia, Managing Director, Canada for Gaming Laboratories International, LLC, and Mike Maodus, Partner, Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP, have joined the CGA’s Board of Directors, and Scott Vanderwel, CEO for PointsBet Canada, becomes the Association’s new Chair.

The full 2026 board is as follows:

Salim Adatia, Gaming Laboratories International, LLC
Bruce Caughill, Rush Street Interactive
Peter Czegeldy, Aird & Berlis LLP
Neil Erlick, Nuvei
Kurt Gissane, Aristocrat
Charmaine Hogan, Playtech
Dale Hooper, FanDuel
Chuck Keeling, Great Canadian Entertainment
Mike Maodus, Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP
Terry McInally, Gateway Entertainment
Niaz Nejad, Non-Member Director
Derek Ramm, Kinectify
Lindsay Slader, GeoComply
Richard Taylor, Niagara Casinos
Shane Thompson, Konami
Scott Vanderwel, PointsBet Canada (Chair)
Scott Woodgate, BetMGM

We are also pleased to welcome three past chairs as Emeritus members of the board:

Ilkim Hincer, IC360
Carrie Kormos, CK Consulting Inc
Bob Parente, Light & Wonder

“Amanda and Brandon have joined the CGA as full-time members to oversee several important national campaigns,” stated Scott Vanderwel, Chair of the Board. “We are also pleased to welcome Salim and Mike to the Board. The Board has worked closely with Paul over recent years to advance the Association’s leadership and board structure. We have full confidence in Amanda and Brandon as they step into these key roles, as well as in the valuable contributions that Salim and Mike are expected to bring as we prepare for an active 2026 workload.”

Mr. Burns stated that the newly announced executive and Board appointments will strengthen CGA’s position and support its expansion into Western Canada. “Amanda brings extensive CGA experience, while Brandon contributes knowledge of government policy at both federal and provincial levels. Coupled with our enhanced Board, I am confident they will help drive CGA’s objectives and ongoing growth.”

Source: canadiangaming.ca

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