Platform pairs sportsbook simulations with a QualiBest survey on fan confidence and compares 2026 sentiment to Brazil’s 2002 campaign.

Superbet has launched “As Odds do Penta,” a data and research hub focused on Brazil’s 2026 World Cup outlook, using sportsbook-driven simulations and public opinion polling to compare the current cycle with the national team’s 2002 campaign. The initiative was announced in São Paulo in June 2026 and is hosted at termometrosuper.com.br.

According to Superbet, its sportsbook model runs predictive simulations and weighs performance metrics alongside qualitative inputs, including media coverage tone and fan engagement, to recreate historical probabilities and compare them to today’s market. “The odds in 2002 would certainly be as high as what we have now in 2026.. The scenario has several similarities: widespread distrust, a tense qualifying phase, and pressure from the press.”, said Guilherme Simantob, a statistician at Superbet.

Superbet also cited results from “Termômetro Super,” a survey commissioned from Instituto QualiBest and conducted June 4-6 with 824 internet users aged 40+ across Brazil. The company said 58% of respondents see a medium-to-high probability of a Brazil turnaround in 2026, and that 58% reported being optimistic or moderately confident based on historical parallels. The release also noted demographic splits, including higher uncertainty among women; a more negative view among Class A respondents compared to Class C; and a stronger “medium probability” view among respondents aged 61+ (44%) versus those aged 40-50 (33%).

On whether prior World Cup disappointments affect belief in a 2026 title, Superbet said 35% reported that pressure from previous defeats reduces confidence, while 22% said history shows Brazil performs strongly when expectations are low; 37% described themselves as moderately confident.

The company added that, based on its reconstruction, Brazil would have been priced at 8.50 in 2002 (which it equated to an 11% mathematical chance). For 2026, Superbet said Brazil’s title odds are around 9.50, and that the “mercado internacional” assigns the team about a 5% chance to win. Commentator Jorge Iggor, cited in the release, argued that entering without being the market favorite can reduce pressure: “Looking at the historical context and the odds themselves proves that not carrying the absolute favoritism for 2026 is a great advantage. Arriving without the weight of being the top team on the market relieves the pressure and makes the atmosphere much lighter. In 2002, the team also defied all predictions and clinical doubts about its main stars to lift the trophy.”

Superbet also highlighted what it called an experience edge in the current squad: “There is an unprecedented and favorable point for the current team. The players selected for the 2026 tournament have accumulated far more titles than the 2002 team at that time: 305 titles combined now, compared to 176 in 2002. This provides experience in big games that could be our unseen advantage.”, Simantob said. The company said the hub will update during the tournament, including additional “Termômetro” polling updates tracking changes in public confidence.

Robinhood has expanded its 2026 World Cup prediction market offering by featuring additional event contracts on the tournament through its derivatives exchange Rothera.

Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group acquired a majority stake in Rothera last year. Both companies announced the exchange will handle a large share of the 2026 World Cup tournament contracts, including match outcomes, the overall tournament winner and total goals markets.

The move marks a shift away from Robinhood’s long-standing reliance on prediction market platform Kalshi.

Robinhood said that decisions on where contracts are routed will be made throughout the competition, based on factors including market liquidity and clarity of game outcomes. The company added that some player-related contracts and certain combination contracts will remain available through the Kalshi platform.

The World Cup, which is set to accelerate sports betting growth, will be a major test for Rothera as Robinhood aims to broaden the number of providers supporting its prediction markets business.

“The World Cup is a global phenomenon and is the perfect event to launch Rothera. We’re now delivering even more value for customers as we continue on our mission to make Robinhood the best place to trade prediction markets,” said JB Mackenzie, VP and GM of Futures and Prediction Markets at Robinhood.

“This is a foundational milestone for us to launch a purpose-built exchange and clearinghouse for the fast-growing prediction markets. While still early days, our goal is to provide the technology, regulatory certainty, and risk management framework needed to support broad participation from both retail and institutional participants. The World Cup marks the first step in that journey, and we look forward to helping shape the future of prediction markets as an asset class,” said Thomas Chippas, CEO of Rothera.