Connect with us

Latest News

Is there really a pricing revolution within prediction markets?

Published

on

is-there-really-a-pricing-revolution-within-prediction-markets?

Sebastien Sabic, Co-Founder and CSO at Moon Intelligence, explores why prediction platforms need to shift their focus to combatting pricing inefficiencies, or risk being left behind by traditional sportsbooks.

The rise of prediction markets has been heralded as the ultimate democratiser of information. The narrative is simple: by allowing retail participants to trade on outcomes, we create a more accurate, decentralised ‘wisdom of the crowd’ environment reminiscent of the early exchange model.

However, a closer look at the infrastructure of these markets suggests that the pricing is not as revolutionary as it seems. In practice, prediction markets are often just a mirror reflecting the same sharp bookmaking giants, market makers, and institutions that have dominated the landscape for decades.

It is a common belief that retail activity on prediction markets is a new force in price movement. While retail volume absolutely impacts pricing, this is not a new phenomenon. Sharp bookmakers have always adjusted their lines based on retail flow. The difference is that prediction markets make this tug of war visible on a public ledger.

While the bets placed by retail users on prediction markets can impact pricing substantially, they do not necessarily do so more than in the realm of traditional sportsbooks. The engine has moved to a new chassis, but the horsepower remains roughly the same.

There is a persistent misconception among peers, which is the idea that on a prediction market, individuals are simply betting against another retail user in a vacuum. This suggests that predictions are a separate market from bookmakers.

In reality, the two are inextricably linked. Market makers on prediction markets typically derive their pricing directly from sharp bookmaker feeds. In many cases, the market makers providing liquidity on a prediction market are the exact same institutions running the sharp books. If the price moves at a major Asian bookmaker, the prediction market price will follow in milliseconds, regardless of what the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ thinks.

If Prediction Markets are just following sharp books, why do they often look like they have better pricing? It comes down to the market maker’s mandate.

On a traditional platform, a bookmaker can rely on its brand notoriety, significant player base, or slick UI to attract volume, allowing them to bake in a higher margin, or vig. Within predictions, market makers are forced to compete on price alone to capture volume.

When comparing a major prediction market to an individual sharp book, the prediction platform often wins simply because it forces market makers to offer their best price to stay relevant in a transparent environment.

Sometimes, prediction market pricing does become uncorrelated from the sharp books. However, this is rarely due to superior wisdom. Instead, it is usually driven by friction.

If high fees make a prediction market less efficient, the only people left on the site are users who are not price sensitive. This often happens when a prediction market is internally funnelled. For example, a user on a financial brokerage app might see a prediction market as a fun add-on, much like a gamification widget on a casino or sportsbook, and bet there despite better odds available on other books, simply because the money is already in their account. This creates a small environment where pricing does not reflect the global reality.

Outside of a better price, the product lacks the depth of an established bookmaker. Typically, this extends to parlays, and same game offerings, which have quickly become the lifeblood of recreational betting, as well as prop bets, niche markets on popular sports, and of course, the user experience. Sportsbooks have spent an enormous sum on gamifying the betting experience, ensuring the process is enjoyable, easy, and engaging. Prediction markets lack a lot of this investment, offering a stripped-back product.

Without a pricing edge, net of fees it will be very hard for prediction markets to compete with bookmakers as the product and marketing will never be on par.

The post Is there really a pricing revolution within prediction markets? appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.

Altenar

Altenar powers Gran Fondo Isle of Man in 2026

Published

on

altenar-powers-gran-fondo-isle-of-man-in-2026

Altenar, a global leader in sportsbook technology is sponsoring Gran Fondo Isle of Man as title sponsor for the 2026 event, which returns with a refreshed format.

Taking place on July 25-26, this year’s festival embraces the growing popularity of off-road cycling, introducing dedicated gravel and cross-country mountain bike events alongside participation rides designed for cyclists of all ages and abilities.

Based in Ramsey, the weekend culminates with the flagship 100 km races, which take riders across some of the Isle of Man’s most spectacular landscapes before finishing in Port Erin.

The partnership reflects Altenar’s commitment to supporting sport and the local community on the Isle of Man, where the company is headquartered.

Alongside its sponsorship of the Isle of Man Marathon and Half Marathon, backing Gran Fondo Isle of Man forms part of Altenar’s wider investment in initiatives that promote healthy lifestyles while showcasing the island to an international audience.

Elena Zhuli, Event’s Director at Altenar, said:

“We’re delighted to support Gran Fondo Isle of Man as it returns with an exciting new format for 2026. The event has built a fantastic reputation over the years by bringing together riders from around the world while celebrating everything that makes the Isle of Man such a unique place to cycle.

“As a company proudly based here, we’re pleased to continue supporting an event that encourages participation, strengthens the local community and showcases the island on the international stage.”

Since its launch, Gran Fondo Isle of Man has welcomed more than 8,000 participants from countries including Japan, Australia, South Africa and the USA, earning recognition as one of the British Isles’ leading participation cycling events.

The refreshed 2026 format builds on that legacy, combining gravel riding, cross-country mountain biking and family-friendly cycling experiences into a weekend that celebrates the island’s outstanding natural landscape.

The post Altenar powers Gran Fondo Isle of Man in 2026 appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.

Continue Reading

casino

Infingame identifies why some casino promotions achieve 5x higher participation than others

Published

on

infingame-identifies-why-some-casino-promotions-achieve-5x-higher-participation-than-others

Infingame, a leading aggregator in the iGaming industry, has revealed new operational insights into why some casino promotions significantly outperform others, with the strongest campaigns generating up to five times higher player participation compared to standard bonus-led activities.

According to Infingame, the gap between average and high-performing promotions is widening as operators move away from one-size-fits-all bonus campaigns and begin treating engagement as a data-led lifecycle strategy.

Based on aggregated observations across operator activity, Infingame found that campaigns built around segmentation, clear progression, time-sensitive mechanics, and real-time visibility consistently outperform static promotions. In some cases, segmented tournament and challenge-based campaigns delivered participation rates up to 5x higher than broad campaigns launched across an entire player base.

“The biggest difference is no longer the prize pool,” said Kateryna Korniienko, Promo Tool Manager at Infingame. “Operators often assume that a larger reward automatically means stronger participation, but our data shows that structure, timing, relevance, and visibility have a much greater impact on whether players actually join and return.”

Infingame notes that traditional casino promotions often underperform because they are too broad, too passive, or disconnected from player behaviour. A campaign offering the same reward to new, active, VIP, and lapsed players may reach a large audience, but it rarely creates the same level of response as a campaign tailored to specific player groups.

The strongest-performing promotions usually share four key characteristics. First, they are built around clear player segments. Campaigns targeted at specific groups, such as new depositors, high-frequency players, VIPs, or dormant users, tend to generate higher participation because the mechanic matches the player’s stage in the lifecycle. For example, a reactivation campaign designed for lapsed users requires a very different structure from a leaderboard aimed at competitive regular players.

Second, successful promotions create visible progress. Players are more likely to continue participating when they can track their position, progress, or remaining steps. This is one of the reasons tournaments, missions, and challenges often outperform static cashback or free spin offers. They create a reason to return during the campaign period, not just claim a reward once.

Third, high-performing campaigns use urgency carefully. Shorter campaign windows, Happy Hours, limited-time multipliers, and event-based mechanics can create sharper engagement peaks when used with the right audience. Infingame has observed that time-limited campaigns can increase repeat activity by 30-45% compared to open-ended promotions, particularly when paired with personalised communication.

Fourth, reward relevance matters more than reward size. Operators frequently overinvest in prize pools without adjusting the mechanic to the player segment. Infingame’s observations show that smaller but better-targeted rewards can often deliver stronger cost-per-engagement performance than larger generic campaigns.

“Promotions are becoming much more operationally sophisticated,” Kateryna Korniienko added. “The best operators are not simply launching a tournament or giving out free spins. They are asking who the campaign is for, what behaviour they want to influence, how long the campaign should run, and which reward makes sense for that player group.”

Infingame also identified a growing divide between operators that analyse campaign performance after launch and those that still evaluate promotions mainly by total participation or bonus cost. More advanced operators are now tracking repeat participation, session continuity, reactivation rate, cost per engaged player, and post-campaign retention.

This shift is changing how promotional tools are used across the industry. Tournaments are increasingly being applied not only as acquisition tools, but also as instruments for retention, reactivation, VIP engagement, and content discovery. Challenges and missions are also gaining traction because they allow operators to guide players through specific behaviours, such as trying new games, returning during low-activity periods, or engaging with selected content categories.

Infingame believes the next stage of casino promotion will be defined by flexibility and precision rather than volume. Through its aggregation platform and engagement tools, Infingame enables operators to design customised tournaments, challenges, and promotional campaigns across different player segments, markets, and content categories.

About Infingame

Infingame is a leading game aggregator built to help operators move faster and scale smarter. Through a single API integration, the platform gives access to a portfolio of over 16,000 games from more than 150 providers, allowing partners to launch quickly without dealing with multiple integrations.

Delivered via a single API, Infingame offers unparalleled technical excellence, the industry’s fastest spin times, exclusive tournaments and strategic partnerships with top-tier operators in North America, LatAm and beyond. Spanning a portfolio of slots, crash games, sweepstakes and live casino, book a demo via the LinkedIn page, website or at [email protected].

The post Infingame identifies why some casino promotions achieve 5x higher participation than others appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.

Continue Reading

Amusnet

Shiny Crystals’ Launch Marks Amusnet’s First Step into Instant Games

Published

on

shiny-crystals’-launch-marks-amusnet’s-first-step-into-instant-games

 

Amusnet enters the world of instant games with Shiny Crystals, a fast-paced experience that blends strategic decision-making, flexible gameplay and rising anticipation into an exciting new format. Designed with a mobile-first approach, this innovative release invites players to uncover sparkling Crystals, avoid hidden Mines and decide exactly how far they are willing to push their luck.

Set on a concealed grid filled with valuable Crystals and dangerous Mines, Shiny Crystals puts every decision in the player’s hands. Each Crystal uncovered increases the current multiplier, creating a constant balance between risk and reward. The longer the journey continues, the greater the potential grows – but one hidden Mine can bring the round to an instant end, making every choice count.

One of the game’s defining features is its flexible risk system. Before each round, players can select how many Mines will be hidden across the grid, tailoring the gameplay to their preferred level of challenge. Whether opting for a cautious approach or embracing higher-risk strategies, every session offers a different path and fresh possibilities.

Adding another layer of excitement is Crystal Rush, a dynamic time-based feature that activates after uncovering three Crystals in quick succession. Once triggered, consecutive Crystal discoveries award additional multiplier boosts, rewarding quick thinking and confident decisions with even greater momentum.

For players who enjoy a more tactical experience, the Defuse Engine introduces a unique strategic mechanic. Before revealing a tile, players can view its Clarity Score, providing valuable insight into the potential risk before making their next move. When circumstances demand it, the grid can also be reshuffled, creating new opportunities and encouraging thoughtful decision-making throughout every round.

Combining intuitive gameplay, customisable risk levels and innovative mechanics, Shiny Crystals marks an exciting milestone as Amusnet’s very first instant game. Fast, engaging and built around meaningful player choice, it delivers a fresh gaming experience where every revealed Crystal brings new possibilities – and every decision could uncover something extraordinary.

The post Shiny Crystals’ Launch Marks Amusnet’s First Step into Instant Games appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.

Continue Reading

Trending

Get it on Google Play

Fresh slot games releases by the top brands of the industry. We provide you with the latest news straight from the entertainment industries.

The platform also hosts industry-relevant webinars, and provides detailed reports, making it a one-stop resource for anyone seeking information about operators, suppliers, regulators, and professional services in the European gaming market. The portal's primary goal is to keep its extensive reader base updated on the latest happenings, trends, and developments within the gaming and gambling sector, with an emphasis on the European market while also covering pertinent global news. It's an indispensable resource for gaming professionals, operators, and enthusiasts alike.

Contact us: [email protected]

Editorial / PR Submissions: [email protected]

Copyright © 2015 - 2024 - Recent Slot Releases is part of HIPTHER Agency. Registered in Romania under Proshirt SRL, Company number: 2134306, EU VAT ID: RO21343605. Office address: Blvd. 1 Decembrie 1918 nr.5, Targu Mures, Romania