Canada
Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare
Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
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Alberta
Gaming Corps launches with PowerPlay in Ontario ahead of Alberta iGaming debut
Deal puts the Swedish supplier live in Ontario and lines up a day-one rollout with PowerPlay when Alberta’s regulated market opens in July.
Gaming Corps has gone live with Canadian online sportsbook and casino operator PowerPlay in Ontario, expanding its distribution in Canada through an operator registered with iGaming Ontario and regulated by the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario.
The agreement also positions Gaming Corps to launch with PowerPlay in Alberta “from day one” when the province opens its newly regulated online gaming market in July, according to the companies. The partnership further extends Gaming Corps’ content across all PowerPlay.com markets.
PowerPlay’s rollout includes several Gaming Corps titles from its 3 Pigs franchise, including 3 Pigs of Olympus and 4 Gym Pigs: Porky Power. Football-themed releases Penalty Champion: Goals to Glory, Goals to Glory Football Fever and Goals to Glory Instant Blitz are also part of the initial content drop.
Graham Greensmith, Chief Commercial Officer at Gaming Corps, said “Canada is becoming an increasingly important market for Gaming Corps, and this launch puts us in a strong position at exactly the right time. Ontario has already shown what a well-structured regulated market can deliver, and Alberta now represents a significant next step.
“PowerPlay has a clear local brand presence and operates across both sportsbook and casino in a way that fits closely with where we see the market heading. This is a launch that gives us an immediate foothold in Ontario, a clear path into Alberta, and a strong foundation for further growth across wider PowerPlay.com markets.”
Lauren Holder, Head of Casino at PowerPlay said: “PowerPlay has grown by focusing on what Canadian players value: choice, trust and an entertainment experience that feels grounded in this market. Gaming Corps fits well within that approach. Its games bring a distinctive tone and pace to our casino, while also giving us content that can work around key sporting moments and new regulated market opportunities. As we continue to develop our casino proposition, we look forward to working with Gaming Corps and bringing its content to players across all PowerPlay.com markets.”
The post Gaming Corps launches with PowerPlay in Ontario ahead of Alberta iGaming debut appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.
Canada
Gaming Corps goes live with PowerPlay in Ontario ahead of Alberta market opening
Gaming Corps – a publicly-listed game development company based in Sweden, has gone live with Canadian online sportsbook and casino operator PowerPlay.
The agreement brings Gaming Corps into Ontario through one of Canada’s established online betting and casino brands, while also positioning the studio to go live with PowerPlay from day one in Alberta when the province opens its newly regulated online gaming market in July.
The partnership also extends Gaming Corps’ content across all PowerPlay.com markets, creating a broader route to players through an operator with a distinctly Canadian identity.
PowerPlay, which launched in 2018, combines sports betting across more than 40 categories with a casino offering more than 1,200 games, alongside a 24/7 live casino experience. The operator is registered with iGaming Ontario and regulated by the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario.
At launch, PowerPlay will introduce players to several of Gaming Corps’ most recognisable content strands, led by the 3 Pigs franchise, including the popular 3 Pigs of Olympus and latest instalment, 4 Gym Pigs: Porky Power.
The roll-out also lands as international football prepares to dominate the summer calendar, with Penalty Champion: Goals to Glory, Goals to Glory Football Fever and Goals to Glory Instant Blitz bringing three distinct football-led releases to PowerPlay’s casino catalogue.
Adding a different tempo to the launch is Banknote Blitz, a fast-paced instant win inspired slot where shifting Win Frames, prize collection mechanics and multipliers can unlock full banknote rewards and wins of up to 5,000x.
Graham Greensmith, Chief Commercial Officer at Gaming Corps, said “Canada is becoming an increasingly important market for Gaming Corps, and this launch puts us in a strong position at exactly the right time. Ontario has already shown what a well-structured regulated market can deliver, and Alberta now represents a significant next step.
“PowerPlay has a clear local brand presence and operates across both sportsbook and casino in a way that fits closely with where we see the market heading. This is a launch that gives us an immediate foothold in Ontario, a clear path into Alberta, and a strong foundation for further growth across wider PowerPlay.com markets.”
Lauren Holder, Head of Casino at PowerPlay said: “PowerPlay has grown by focusing on what Canadian players value: choice, trust and an entertainment experience that feels grounded in this market. Gaming Corps fits well within that approach. Its games bring a distinctive tone and pace to our casino, while also giving us content that can work around key sporting moments and new regulated market opportunities. As we continue to develop our casino proposition, we look forward to working with Gaming Corps and bringing its content to players across all PowerPlay.com markets.”
The post Gaming Corps goes live with PowerPlay in Ontario ahead of Alberta market opening appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.
Canada
N1 Partners x RAZE Case: ROI+ in Canada within 3 Days
Gambling traffic in Tier-1 markets rarely forgives mistakes. Especially when it comes to Facebook, where CPM costs are high, auction volatility is significant, and testing is expensive.
This was exactly the challenge the RAZE team faced when entering the Canadian market together with N1 Partners in spring 2026. The goal of the campaign was not just volume — the team needed to find a setup capable of maintaining FTD quality, preserving ROI, and scaling in one of the most expensive iGaming GEOs on the market.
In this case study, N1 Partners and RAZE will explain:
- why only 2 out of 10 tested slots remained profitable;
- how the acquisition strategy for Tier-1 Facebook was built;
- how the N1 Partners funnel influenced conversion rates;
- and what helped maintain ROI during scaling.
Initial Data
GEO: Canada
Vertical: Gambling (iGaming)
Traffic type: Facebook (PWA)
Campaign period: April, 20 – May, 8
Goal: FTD + ROI
Volume (FTD): ~300 deposits
N1 Partners brands: N1 Bet, RollXO, Slot Lounge, Slot Mafia, Lucky Hunter, Retro Bet и Goldex Casino
| N1 Partners comment: At the start, we decided not to limit ourselves to a single brand and tested seven brands simultaneously to identify combinations with the highest conversion rates and profitability for the RAZE team’s approach. This allowed us to collect a larger data sample and thoroughly analyse traffic behaviour across our brands. |
The main challenge remained traffic quality. In Tier-1 GEOs, generating deposits alone is not enough — it is crucial to understand how traffic performs over time and how players behave after making their first deposit.
Additionally, RAZE had limited historical data on running N1 offers in Canada, which created uncertainty regarding which approach, slot, and “creative + funnel” combination would deliver the best projected ROI.
Why Canada?
Canada was chosen as one of the most stable Tier-1 GEOs for the gambling vertical due to its highly solvent audience, large Facebook traffic volume, and consistent demand within the niche.
Another factor was the state of the Facebook auction. During the campaign period, competition in Canada was lower than in several other English-speaking GEOs, allowing for more comfortable CPMs and faster scaling of successful setups.
However, along with volume came the primary Tier-1 challenge — the high cost of mistakes. As a result, the team deliberately avoided a single-offer strategy and opted for broad testing instead.
RAZE Strategy
Facebook PWA is the core traffic source and key media-buying specialization for the RAZE team.
To begin, the team requested a list of top-performing slots for Canada from N1 Partners and analyzed them using spy tools: which approaches were already active in the auction, what mechanics competitors were using, and which creatives were generating the highest CTR.
| N1 Partners comment: Along with a list of top-performing slots, the RAZE team received recommendations regarding Canadian audience specifics, target metrics, and minimum data thresholds required to evaluate traffic quality from N1 Partners. This enabled RAZE to build tests based on advertiser-focused metrics rather than operating blindly. |
A custom funnel featuring N1 Partners bonuses was also created.
At the same time, three optimisation models were launched:
- Auto Bid
- Min CPA Cap (when triggered, budgets were aggressively scaled up to ~$10,000+ for optimal delivery)
- Max Bid
The primary goal was to quickly determine which model provided the best buying control and allowed Facebook’s algorithm to learn most effectively under expensive Tier-1 traffic conditions.
N1 Partners’ involvement extended beyond simply providing offers and slots.
| N1 Partners comment: In addition to recommendations regarding top slots and audience specifics, it was important for us to evaluate how partner traffic interacted with different brands. Therefore, from the very beginning, we established profitability benchmarks and KPIs that became our key reference points after the first tests. |
One of the main characteristics of Tier-1 Facebook traffic was its inconsistency even within high-quality traffic segments. Because of this, campaigns could not be evaluated too early — the algorithm needed sufficient time to accumulate data.
This later became one of the key factors behind the campaign’s success.
RAZE Strategy Analysis
At launch, the RAZE team tested 10 slots from N1 Partners. The slots were analyzed through spy tools to determine which creatives were running and which approaches were currently trending.
After evaluating the feasibility of each approach, the team selected 2 slots and developed custom creatives based on identified patterns.
However, initial tests revealed that most hypotheses were not economically viable.
Only two slots from the N1 Bet brand remained profitable:
- Gates of Olympus 1000
- Coin Volcano



Examples of Coin Volcano creatives that were used
Approaches That Worked and Why
The Coin Volcano funnel delivered the best results in terms of the traffic-to-FTD conversion path.
| N1 Partners comment: From the N1 product side, this performance was further supported by the funnel structure itself: users were sequentially presented with a welcome bonus, available payment methods, and the most popular games for their region.
On the N1 Partners side, the team evaluated not only the final number of deposits but also the efficiency of the entire funnel. Average campaign performance reached 39.83% for Click-to-Registration (Click2Reg) and 37.99% for Registration-to-Deposit (Reg2Dep). This made it possible to identify specific buyer–creative–product combinations with strong potential for further scaling. |
As a result, users understood the offer faster and the overall setup became more cohesive. This is especially important in Tier-1 GEOs, where the cost of mistakes at every stage is significantly higher.

PWA and landing page design featuring the advertiser’s bonus offer
| N1 Partners comment: One of the key success factors was a properly structured funnel. The landing page focused exclusively on essential information and guided users through a clear post-registration flow: a welcome bonus as the primary hook, payment methods, top regional games, and continued interaction with the product. |
Additionally, the N1 Partners team continuously monitored page loading speed and technical landing page performance to minimise traffic losses before registration.
Creatives and Approaches
During testing, the team experimented with several approaches:
- video creatives
- reaction-style scenarios
- offline casino aesthetics
- classic static ads
However, nearly all complex approaches underperformed compared to simple static creatives.
The best-performing setups were the most straightforward combinations: slot + bonus + winnings + clear CTA.
Static creatives offered lower installation costs, enabling faster offer changes, slot rotation, and testing of new angles without rebuilding production assets from scratch. As a result, most of the budget was ultimately shifted toward static creatives.
Scaling and Optimization
Initially, the team tested three acquisition models simultaneously: Auto Bid, Min CPA Cap, and Max Bid. The primary focus was not only deposit cost but also FTD quality, which meant decisions were made only after collecting sufficient data.
Working Approaches
-
- Min CPA Cap + aggressive scaling.
Once a stable CPA was achieved, budgets were increased aggressively, reaching approximately $10K in some cases. This allowed the team to capture volume while maintaining ROI.
- Min CPA Cap + aggressive scaling.
- GEO segmentation.
English-speaking provinces with lower CPMs delivered the strongest performance. - Time-based optimisation.
Most conversions occurred during evenings and weekends, so budgets were allocated more aggressively during those periods. - Delayed campaign evaluation.
Traffic quality improved after 30-40 deposits, so campaigns were not shut down prematurely. N1 Partners analytics played a major role here.
The product team analysed performance by individual buyers and setups, allowing them to assess traffic quality more deeply than standard CPA or initial deposit metrics and provide timely recommendations regarding scaling or stopping campaigns.
| N1 Partners comment: Across numerous tests, we observed that campaigns generating 40+ FDs were significantly more likely to deliver stable profitability. Prematurely stopping campaigns with limited volume often resulted in shutting down potentially strong setups before the algorithm had fully learned. |
At the same time, aggressive scaling only worked for proven setups. Increasing budgets too early caused CPM and CPA to rise faster than the volume of quality deposits.
N1 Partners comment: Before launch, we established the following profitability benchmarks:
Average deposit count: from 2.2. This enabled us, as the advertiser, to receive traffic of the required quality while allowing the partner to maintain profitability during scaling. |
Where Profit Was Lost
- Only 2 out of 10 tested slots remained profitable, meaning part of the budget was spent on ineffective tests.
- Video and reaction-based approaches lost to simple static creatives featuring slots and bonuses.
- Premature scaling of weak ad sets increased CPM and CPA without improving FTD quality.
- Some campaigns were stopped before Facebook had enough time to complete its learning phase.
Campaign Results
Over 18 days, the team achieved:
- FTD Volume: ~300 deposits
- Traffic: 2,659 installs
- CTR: 0.9–1%
- CPC: $2.5–4
- CPA: $140–156
- Best Optimization Model: Min CPA Cap + aggressive budget scaling
Positive ROI was achieved as early as the third day of traffic acquisition.
After the first 30 deposits, the team stabilized at approximately 30 daily FTDs and, on some days, reached up to 50 deposits despite account bans and market turbulence.

Ad Account #1

Ad Account #2
Day 1 of Ad Campaign

Day 3 of Ad Campaign
One of the key success factors from the N1 Partners side was the continuous feedback exchange between the media-buying and product teams.
| N1 Partners comment: Simply acquiring players is not enough. For long-term cooperation, traffic profitability must work for both the advertiser and the buying team. Regular feedback and in-depth traffic analysis by buyer and setup enabled us to quickly determine which campaigns truly deserved scaling. |
Case Takeaways
The RAZE × N1 Partners case once again proved that in Tier-1 markets, finding a strong creative or a winning slot alone is no longer enough.
Success comes only when several factors work together:
- strong Facebook media buying;
- deep traffic quality analytics;
- an effective product funnel;
- continuous data exchange between partner and advertiser;
- scaling only validated setups.
| N1 Partners comment: Even before launch, both teams established unified traffic quality criteria and scaling benchmarks. This approach accelerated decision-making, eliminated subjective evaluations, and helped focus on setups that were profitable for both parties. |
FAQ: RAZE x N1 Partners Case Study
1. What was the main insight of the campaign?
“The main insight was that in Tier-1 GEOs, you cannot rely solely on creatives or bidding. Canadian traffic is expensive, and if your funnel fails to meet user expectations, you start losing money.
We succeeded through a comprehensive approach: we took top-performing slots from the advertiser, validated them using spy tools, filtered out weak hypotheses through testing, built a custom funnel around a specific slot, and only then began scaling.
Ultimately, we realised that the right funnel can be just as important as the creative itself. It directly impacts FTD quality and overall profitability. “— Artem Mayskiy, Team Lead at Media Buying, RAZE.
2. What surprised you during launch?
“What surprised us was how traffic quality improved with scale. Initial deposits do not always provide an objective picture: campaigns may appear unstable, CPA fluctuates, and at that point the temptation to stop everything is very strong.
However, traffic quality turned out to be better than expected. After 30-40 deposits, it became clear that the algorithm was finding the right audience much more effectively. That was a very important signal for us.” — Artem Mayskiy, Team Lead at Media Buying, RAZE.
3. What is scalable from this campaign and what is not?
“From the advertiser’s perspective, it is crucial to monitor profitability benchmarks and quickly disable underperforming traffic. Before launch, we agreed with our partner on minimum acceptable traffic thresholds and adhered to them.
The percentage of players making only a single deposit (without repeats) could not exceed 70%. By strictly following these metrics during testing, we received traffic of the quality we required as an advertiser, while the partner maintained profitability.” — Alexey Gusarov, Team Lead of Affiliates, N1 Partners.
4. One piece of advice for affiliates and the market.
“Don’t stop campaigns too early. Keep driving installs and determine your acceptable deposit and install costs. This allows you to evaluate any funnel objectively and make informed decisions rather than guessing. It’s also important not to spread yourself too thin.
We tested 10 slots, but only 2 remained in active use. Growth started when we stopped distributing budget across numerous hypotheses and focused on setups that had already demonstrated proven audience interest.
It’s better to fully optimise one working funnel than to superficially test ten.” — Artem Mayskiy, Team Lead at Media Buying, RAZE.
“It’s important not only to monitor your own metrics as an advertiser but also to understand your partner’s needs.
Everyone talks about win-win relationships between advertisers and media-buying teams, but in practice, this only works when both sides genuinely understand each other’s objectives and make decisions based on overall traffic economics rather than isolated metrics.
This approach is exactly what allowed the team to become profitable by the third day and maintain stable volume in one of the market’s most expensive GEOs.” — Alexey Gusarov, Team Lead of Affiliates, N1 Partners.
Subscribe to the RAZE team on Telegram, where they share fresh case studies, campaign results, proven setups, and scaling insights based on real-world experience rather than theory.
Work with N1 Partners and scale gambling traffic alongside a team that helps build long-term profitable setups:
- 14+ casino and sportsbook brands with strong Reg2Dep performance
- 10+ Tier-1 GEOs
- CPA up to €700 and RevShare up to 55% + NNCO for top partners
Be Number One with N1!
The post N1 Partners x RAZE Case: ROI+ in Canada within 3 Days appeared first on Eastern European Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.
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