Canada
Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare

Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency
Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.
On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.
The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.
To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).
Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.
In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.
In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?
Not enough data, captain
But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.
Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.
Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.
Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.
Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…
In polls, we trust
In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.
If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?
Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.
And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.
So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?
Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.
While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.
That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.
We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.
And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.
His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?
We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.
What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.
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Bonus Guardian
Pinnacle Ontario live with CasinoEngine in North America debut

EveryMatrix has expanded its partnership with tier-1 operator Pinnacle powering its new casino in Ontario, Canada, using CasinoEngine platform technology – the first time its platform solution has gone live in North America.
The latest agreement builds on the two companies’ previous collaboration that saw EveryMatrix’s CasinoEngine productivity platform power the well-known brand’s global casino offering.
The new launch takes the relationship to North America, marking EveryMatrix’s debut CasinoEngine platform integration in that market.
BonusEngine, EveryMatrix’s cross-vertical bonusing tool will be integrated in the second phase of launch. This will equip Pinnacle Ontario with a host of bonus types as well as AI-powered bonus abuse solution Bonus Guardian.
BonusEngine is the first of multiple engagement tools from EveryMatrix’s EngageSuite that Pinnacle plans to integrate.
With this comprehensive toolkit at its disposal, and the opportunity to add even more casino products in the future, Pinnacle Ontario can tailor campaigns, segment audiences, and reward players more effectively, creating a world-class digital entertainment experience for its customers.
EveryMatrix has more than 300 global customers and holds North American licences in Ontario, New Jersey, Michigan, West Virginia, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.
Stian Enger Petersen, CEO, Casino, EveryMatrix, said: “This launch marks a key milestone for EveryMatrix as we bring our market-leading CasinoEngine platform to Canada for the first time.
“We’re delighted to expand our partnership with Pinnacle and support their ambitions in Ontario with a powerful combination of platform, content, and engagement tools that are proven to drive success.”
The post Pinnacle Ontario live with CasinoEngine in North America debut appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
AGCO
Prime Skill Games Inc. Official Response to AGCO Press Release

As CEO of Prime Skill Games Inc., I feel compelled to address recent comments made by the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario regarding so-called unapproved gambling machines in convenience stores across the province.
Let me be perfectly clear
Our machines are not gambling devices. They are entirely skill-based, fully compliant with the law, and built on the fundamental idea that players are in control. The outcome of every session is determined solely by the player’s ability, not by random chance.
Prime Skill Games is proud to be the only true skill game operating in Ontario today.
We categorically reject any suggestion that our products fall under the definition of unregulated gambling. Such statements are inaccurate, misleading, and fail to recognize the critical distinction between games of skill and games of chance.
We stand firmly behind the legality of our machines and the integrity of our operations. We will demonstrate this through every available means, whether through legal documentation, expert analysis, or, if necessary, before the courts. We are prepared and unafraid to defend the truth.
To our players, partners, and business community, we want to reassure you that our mission has not changed. We are committed to offering a responsible, transparent, and innovative entertainment experience. We will not be intimidated by broad and baseless accusations, and we will continue to move forward with strength and clarity.
Sincerely
Matt Zamroźniak
Chief Executive Officer
Prime Skill Games Inc.
The post Prime Skill Games Inc. Official Response to AGCO Press Release appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
Canada
LuckyStart Casino Adds New Payment Method

LuckyStart Casino has announced the addition of a new payment method – Interac – available for all players in Canada, in order to make it easier for their customers to fund their account balance and cash out their winnings quickly.
The brand is aware of the popularity of this payment method amongst Canadian players, and hence, it has decided to add it and enable flexible deposit and withdrawal limits, in order to be considered as the best Interac casino in Canada, especially since the brand is also releasing Interac-exclusive bonuses and promotions.
Furthermore, LuckyStart has announced flexible limits for deposits and withdrawals, to make it easier for players to fund their account balance and cash out their winnings, offering instant approval and same-day processing, which are traits that LuckyStart believes are going to position it as the best Interac casino in Canada.
LuckyStart now supports Interac on the desktop and mobile website, offers exclusive bonuses for Interac bonuses, as well as instant withdrawals, and unrestricted access to their catalog of 5000+ real money games.
LuckyStart believes there is no better way to celebrate an accomplishment in the online gambling world than by launching new bonuses and promotions. That’s why the brand has released a new welcome bonus package for all players who deposit via Interac, as LuckyStart envisions becoming the best Interac casino in Canada.
This new welcome bonus package available for all Interact deposits rewards players with up to $4800 in free bonus money across their first 4 deposits, along with 400 Free Spins. When compared to the welcome packages offered by other Interact casinos, LuckyStart stands out with the biggest offer currently available.
The post LuckyStart Casino Adds New Payment Method appeared first on Gaming and Gambling Industry in the Americas.
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