Canada

Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare

Published

5 years ago

October 30, 2020

Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency

Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.

On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.

The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.

To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).

Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.

In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.

In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?

Not enough data, captain

But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.

Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.

Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.

Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.

Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…

In polls, we trust

In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.

If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?

Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.

And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.

So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?

Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.

While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.

That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.

We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.

And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.

His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?

We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.

What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.

Canada

High Roller Technologies Signs Letter of Intent with Kindbridge Behavioral Health to Support Responsible Gambling in Ontario

Published

3 days ago

January 29, 2026

GamingAmericas.com

high-roller-technologies-signs-letter-of-intent-with-kindbridge-behavioral-health-to-support-responsible-gambling-in-ontario

High Roller Technologies Inc., operator of the award-winning, premium online casino brands High Roller and Fruta, announced it has entered into a non-binding Letter of Intent (LOI) with Kindbridge Behavioral Health (Kindbridge) to support its commitment to responsible gambling in Ontario, subject to licensing and regulatory approval.

Through the planned partnership with Kindbridge, High Roller intends to offer eligible Ontario players who choose to self-exclude a confidential pathway to support that helps individuals understand their options and take next steps at their own pace. The experience begins with education and a guided triage process, followed by the option to connect with no-cost peer support and, when appropriate, licensed Canadian clinicians. Using a stepped-care approach, individuals can start where they feel ready and access additional support over time, based on their needs and goals.

“We believe entertainment should always be enjoyed responsibly. Partnering with Kindbridge reinforces our commitment to player wellbeing by ensuring that anyone who may be experiencing challenges with their gambling activity has access to meaningful, professional support. This collaboration reflects our responsibility not only as an operator, but as a trusted brand that puts people first,” said Seth Young, Chief Executive Officer at High Roller.

Kindbridge works with gaming operators across North America to deliver early-intervention programs designed to identify, assess, and support at-risk individuals, including integration with self-exclusion and responsible gaming workflows.

“Building strong, accessible pathways to support is an essential part of effective responsible gambling programs.nOperators are uniquely positioned to assist individuals who may be experiencing distress by helping connect them to appropriate care. We’re proud to work with High Roller to expand access to specialized clinicians and evidence-based resources, supporting healthier outcomes for players and more effective responsible gambling frameworks,” said Daniel Umfleet, Founder & CEO of Kindbridge Behavioral Health.

Seth Young, who currently serves as Chief Executive Officer of High Roller, is a current shareholder, member of the Board of Advisors, and former member of the Board of Directors at Kindbridge.

The post High Roller Technologies Signs Letter of Intent with Kindbridge Behavioral Health to Support Responsible Gambling in Ontario appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.

Brightstar Lottery PLC

Brightstar Lottery Delivers Industry-Leading Sales Force Automation Solution to Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation

Published

5 days ago

January 27, 2026

GamingAmericas.com

brightstar-lottery-delivers-industry-leading-sales-force-automation-solution-to-ontario-lottery-and-gaming-corporation

Brightstar Lottery PLC announced that it has deployed its Sales Wizard salesforce automation tool to the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation (OLG). Brightstar’s powerful, cloud-based Sales Wizard easily integrates with OLG’s central system and equips sales representatives with actionable insights and compelling data to identify lottery retail opportunities and make every retail visit more effective.

“Brightstar’s Sales Wizard is enabling OLG’s sales force with digital access to actionable data while unlocking operational efficiencies so that our sales representatives can make the best use of every retail visit. Sales Wizard is highly configurable so OLG can leverage this product in a variety of ways to meet our evolving business needs,” said Vanessa Theoret, OLG Sr. Director Retail Sales & Account Management.

“OLG joins 24 other lotteries in using Brightstar’s Sales Wizard to help responsibly grow sales. Sales Wizard was designed to be a flexible, convenient tool for lottery sales representatives to work strategically with retailers, providing data, reports, and insights to understand sales trends and optimize as needed,” said Scott Gunn, Brightstar Chief Operating Officer North America Lottery.

Sales Wizard is the industry-leading sales force automation tool that provides sales teams with timely, relevant information and is available in user-friendly mobile apps for greater efficiency in the field. Currently supporting more than 148,000 retailers globally, Sales Wizard provides data and insights on sales, instant ticket inventory, instant ticket facings, point-of-sale equipment and signage, and much more.

Brightstar serves nearly 90 lottery customers and their players on six continents.

The post Brightstar Lottery Delivers Industry-Leading Sales Force Automation Solution to Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.

Canada

ComeOn Launches New Marketing Campaign in Ontario

Published

6 days ago

January 26, 2026

GamingAmericas.com

comeon-launches-new-marketing-campaign-in-ontario

ComeOn Group has launched its new marketing campaign in Ontario. The campaign underscores ComeOn Group’s long-term commitment to sustainable expansion – powered by ComeOn’s proprietary technology and a clear focus on delivering standout, personalized entertainment experiences at scale.

Since entering Ontario in 2022 with its licensed online casino offering, ComeOn Group has steadily built its presence in one of North America’s most competitive regulated markets. In late 2024, the Group reached a major strategic milestone with the launch of its full proprietary sportsbook in the province, expanding its product portfolio and strengthening its position as a full-suite iGaming operator.

The addition of sportsbook enables ComeOn to offer both casino and sports betting within a unified entertainment ecosystem. This expansion aligns with the Group’s broader global strategy to accelerate sportsbook growth, leveraging its in-house platform, trading capabilities, and risk management expertise to scale efficiently across regulated jurisdictions.

To support this next phase of growth in Ontario, ComeOn Group has shifted to an independent media planning model, activating a bold, high-frequency presence across Linear TV, Connected TV (CTV), and Digital channels. This approach reflects the Group’s product-led philosophy- pairing increased brand visibility with a seamless, personalized player journey powered by a robust, in-house technology stack built for performance and scale.

At the centre of the campaign is a series of premium television commercials starring Jeremy Piven, a long-standing ComeOn brand ambassador. Piven’s high-energy presence and authentic connection to sports reinforce the brand’s entertainment-first positioning, bringing ComeOn’s sportsbook experience to life across TV and digital. Produced by ComeOn Group’s internal creative hub, the campaign provides a cohesive creative platform that clearly differentiates the brand in a crowded market.

Efi Peleg, Chief Commercial Officer at ComeOn Group, said: “Ontario is a critical and highly competitive market for us. By shifting to independent media planning and activating a true 360-degree marketing mix, we’re not just increasing awareness – we’re demonstrating the strength of our proprietary platform and our ability to deliver a superior, personalised player experience. Our headline campaign, led by Jeremy Piven, brings our entertainment-first proposition to life and reflects our broader strategy of driving sustainable growth in key regulated markets through differentiated products and data-driven execution.”

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