Canada

Trump vs Biden odds: An operator’s nightmare

Published

6 years ago

October 30, 2020

Cloudbet unpacks some of the narratives behind the market moves in a furious and fluctuating betting race for the US presidency

Operators have been offering outrights on the 2020 US election for years, with the market opening immediately after President Donald Trump’s against-the-odds victory over Hillary Clinton four years ago.

On the eve of Election Day, betting pundits are rightly asking if Trump can do it again. There are some obvious similarities to four years ago: While we know much more about him, The Donald is still The Donald, and his Democrat opponent is – once again – a high-profile established Washington lifer in Joe Biden.

The other thing that hasn’t changed are the nightmares that Trump is still giving operators – which is precisely the subject of this article.

To set the stage, some background. Outright markets in the early stages had a diverse array of candidates, and it was really only after Trump and Biden secured their respective parties’ nominations that the field was whittled down to our main protagonists – effectively shutting the door on bettors’ hopes for long-shot candidates (though you can still get a bet on Jo Jorgensen).

Initial odds are formed on presidential candidates by operators in pretty much the same way as a major sporting event: The book takes a view on the chances of each candidate winning, splitting up the 100% quantum of probabilities between the number of candidates left in the race.

In politics betting, that view might be influenced by things like how healthy or mentally sharp a candidate looks, how much relevant experience they can bring to the role, what skeletons are in (or in some case, out of) their closet, how influential they are in galvanising their parties around them, or how influential they could be in galvanising communities within the country. The book distills these factors out into its own view on anticipated investment and liability controls – i.e., how much exposure is it willing to take on any one candidate.

In short – as with a sporting contest – what are the chances of A prevailing over B, what influences those chances, and what price would you charge someone to back those chances (really, it boils down to what’s the price at which a book would be willing to accept the risk of losing a bet)?

Not enough data, captain

But there is a major obstacle when it comes to setting prices for elections: the lack of observable data or analysis. Yes, there are a plethora of polls and more news and rumour than you can swing a cat at for the present election – but it’s all down to one contest – one that has never played out before.

Yes, Trump has contested and won one election, while Biden has two electoral victories to his name, but they were both as Barack Obama’s sidekick. This time, it’s Trump versus Biden – for the first (and probably only) time. Operators don’t know, really, what variables matter in this instance that will ultimately influence the outcome of the contest, because there is no historical experience to go by.

Contrast this with (in a Covid-free era) the number of times Manchester United might face Arsenal in a season – or, to equate this to a US election cycle, across four years. Oddsmakers have millions of data points, yes, but they also have a rock-solid understanding on which of those data points matter most for a particular contest: because they’ve seen it before, dozens of times.

Let’s accept then that prices on the US election will have to be taken with a great dollop of good faith, and are more a vote of trust in the bookmaker setting the odds.

Next, is how bettors respond to those prices based on what influences their perceptions of value and candidate probabilities. And the quantum of bets they place ostensibly is a good safe indicator for operators to shape the prices for either candidate. We say “ostensibly” with good reason…

In polls, we trust

In any election, the polls certainly can sway voting intentions – and betting odds. Current polls can be viewed as a reflection of all that is currently known, or perceived, about a candidate’s ability to win an election. In the absence of any substantive knowledge or ability to predict the future, a poll is the best guide, the “best real-world estimate” of either candidate’s chances of victory.

If you can trust the polls, you can simply equate a reliable poll percentage with an implied probability, and you have a reliable price indicator – right?

Wrong, as anyone who followed betting odds during the 2016 election will tell you. Prices on Trump in the lead up to Election Day had widened as far as 9 (+800) – implying a win probability of 11%.

And we know the result – an improbable victory to The Donald – and surely some very happy punters to boot.

So here then is the second major challenge for bookmakers: Trump has beaten the odds before. Do you really want to expose your business to massive losses by pricing him too far out of the market, whatever the polls are telling you?
Where’s the action?

Bettors are clearly aware of what happened in 2016 – and books are clearly seeing substantial interest on Trump, in spite of what the election polls indicate. More than 85% of the money that Cloudbet has taken on the US election has been on Trump and the Republicans – and it’s a theme evident at other books as well.

While there could be a point made about the predispositions within the bitcoin community that might make them more right-leaning (if not directly Trump-supporting), people are certainly betting that he could do it again.

That being said, why is Biden still favoured to win by every book on the street? Someone must be betting on him, in size. While we can’t speak to their motivations, the point we can make from a pricing standpoint is that it pays to be aware of where the action is, and who has it.

We estimate that betting exchanges are seeing roughly half of the action on the US election, with Betfair clearly taking some sizable Biden bets. We’re not suggesting that exchanges are the key indicator of an event’s outcome – but from a bettor’s perspective, it’s good to know where the action is to form individual views on value in the odds.

And there we have it, ladies and gentlemen. As of this writing, the current odds give Trump a 37% chance of victory.

His opponent is at 63%. Who will win?

We can’t say for sure, but we hope that with this article, you’re better equipped to understand what goes into these odds.

What we CAN say: where Donald J. Trump is concerned, anything is possible.

BGaming

CasinoCanada launches free social slot tournament

Published

1 day ago

May 15, 2026

GamingAmericas.com

casinocanada-launches-free-social-slot-tournament

CasinoCanada.com launches a new social tournament system built around free-to-enter slot competitions, combining daily, weekly, and monthly events with leaderboards, bonus prizes, and exclusive merchandise.

The tournaments are powered entirely by BGaming slots, marking the first industry collaboration between an affiliate brand and BGaming focused specifically on social tournament engagement.

Participation in all tournaments is free for registered users of legal gambling age.

Players compete across rotating tournaments featuring a changing lineup of BGaming titles, including hit titles Aztec Magic Bonanza, Bonanza Billion, and Elvis Frog, among others.

Prizes include various bonuses and free spins from CasinoCanada partner casinos.

Selected special tournaments also feature exclusive BGaming merchandise prizes.

Tournament performance is reflected in public leaderboards, adding a competitive and community-driven layer to the CasinoCanada experience.

While social slot tournaments have become increasingly common in iGaming, many existing formats are built around the same providers and similar tournament structures.

CasinoCanada’s approach focuses on free participation, rotating BGaming content, partner casino bonus rewards, merchandise prizes, and recurring competition.

Eugene Ravdin, Head of PR at CasinoCanada, said: “The affiliate industry is moving beyond static review pages and traditional bonus listings. Community features, recurring engagement formats, and social competition are becoming increasingly important for long-term audience retention.

“Our goal is to create something more interactive and community-driven while also giving more visibility to BGaming’s slot portfolio through a format that players can engage with on a daily basis.”

Kate Puteiko, CMO at BGaming, said: “Players and the community have always been the beating heart of everything we do here at BGaming.

Online play no longer has to be a solitary activity, and tournaments like this are an excellent way to connect players and enhance everyone’s experience.

CasinoCanada shares this vision, and this collaboration is a natural extension of that.

We are excited to see our games front and centre of these tournaments and for players to begin creating memorable moments competing with them.”

CasinoCanada plans to introduce additional community features in the future, including gamification systems and forum functionality designed to expand user interaction around the tournament ecosystem.

The tournaments are now live at: https://casinocanada.com/tournaments/

The post CasinoCanada launches free social slot tournament appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.

Betnova

Delasport Accelerates Canadian Growth

Published

2 days ago

May 15, 2026

GamingAmericas.com

Delasport continues to strengthen its position in the Canadian regulated market, now powering three live brands in Ontario while preparing for further expansion into Alberta as the province moves toward opening its regulated online gaming market.

Delasport’s technology is currently live in Ontario with TitanPlay.ca, Maverick Games, and Betnova.ca. The company provides a combination of full turnkey platform solutions of Casino, Sport, Player Account Management and Managed Services as well as its high-performance Sportsbook iFrame technology. This enables operators to launch quickly while delivering a premium user experience tailored to the Canadian audience.

With Ontario continuing to establish itself as one of North America’s most competitive regulated markets, Delasport’s growing local presence reflects the company’s long-term commitment to Canada and its confidence in the market’s continued evolution.

“Ontario is a strategically important market for us, and it has already proven to be a strong success story. Seeing multiple brands successfully operating on our technology and services demonstrates the strength of our platform in acquiring and retaining players in Ontario. We’re excited to continue this momentum as we prepare for Alberta,” said Oren Cohen Shwartz, CEO of Delasport.

As part of its next phase of Canadian growth, Delasport has officially applied for Alberta’s upcoming B2B licensing framework and is already preparing to go live with a partner operator once the market opens.

The company’s Canadian momentum is further supported by its mobile-first approach. TitanPlay’s iOS application is already available on the Apple App Store for users in Ontario, delivering a seamless casino and sportsbook experience powered by Delasport technology.

Delasport’s platform in Canada includes a wide range of personalization and engagement tools designed to enhance user retention and entertainment value.

The company has continued to position itself as one of the industry’s leading providers in regulated markets worldwide, with a strong focus on scalable technology, localization, compliance, and player-centric innovation.

The post Delasport Accelerates Canadian Growth appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.

Canada

Responsible Gambling Council Urges Financial Institutions to Strengthen Protections Against Gambling Harm

Published

2 days ago

May 15, 2026

GamingAmericas.com

responsible-gambling-council-urges-financial-institutions-to-strengthen-protections-against-gambling-harm

The Responsible Gambling Council (RGC) has urged Canada’s financial sector to take a proactive role in mitigating gambling-related financial harm. A new whitepaper released highlights how banks and credit unions are uniquely positioned to protect the financial well-being of their customers.

The whitepaper, Opportunities for Impact: The Role of Financial Institutions in Mitigating Gambling-Related Harm, argues that financial institutions have a unique duty of care. Financial institutions have direct access to gambling transaction data that reveals early warning signs of financial vulnerability. These indicators include rapidly shrinking savings and an increased reliance on overdrafts or credit.

“The rapid expansion of regulated gambling in Canada requires an evolved response from our financial systems. By adopting tools already proven in other jurisdictions, Canadian banks can become leaders in protecting customer financial health,” said Tracy Parker, SVP, Accreditation, Advisory & Insights at RGC.

Jurisdictions like the UK and Australia have already recognized the powerful role financial institutions play. Banks such as Monzo and Starling in the UK were the first to offer voluntary gambling blocks to their customers. Similarly, the National Australia Bank provides dedicated support pages and links to financial counseling.

RGC recommends that Canadian financial institutions implement several key strategies:

• Improving the accuracy of Merchant Category Codes to better track gambling spend.

• Offering voluntary transaction blocks and self-defined monthly spend limits.

• Providing targeted messaging and support resources within digital banking platforms.

Beyond retail banking, RGC highlights the importance of commercial relationships. Financial institutions can influence industry practices by setting high harm prevention expectations for gambling operators. Integrating these considerations into due diligence processes helps mitigate reputational and regulatory risks.

The post Responsible Gambling Council Urges Financial Institutions to Strengthen Protections Against Gambling Harm appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.