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Is there really a pricing revolution within prediction markets?

Published

4 months ago

March 30, 2026

is-there-really-a-pricing-revolution-within-prediction-markets?

Sebastien Sabic, Co-Founder and CSO at Moon Intelligence, explores why prediction platforms need to shift their focus to combatting pricing inefficiencies, or risk being left behind by traditional sportsbooks.

The rise of prediction markets has been heralded as the ultimate democratiser of information. The narrative is simple: by allowing retail participants to trade on outcomes, we create a more accurate, decentralised ‘wisdom of the crowd’ environment reminiscent of the early exchange model.

However, a closer look at the infrastructure of these markets suggests that the pricing is not as revolutionary as it seems. In practice, prediction markets are often just a mirror reflecting the same sharp bookmaking giants, market makers, and institutions that have dominated the landscape for decades.

It is a common belief that retail activity on prediction markets is a new force in price movement. While retail volume absolutely impacts pricing, this is not a new phenomenon. Sharp bookmakers have always adjusted their lines based on retail flow. The difference is that prediction markets make this tug of war visible on a public ledger.

While the bets placed by retail users on prediction markets can impact pricing substantially, they do not necessarily do so more than in the realm of traditional sportsbooks. The engine has moved to a new chassis, but the horsepower remains roughly the same.

There is a persistent misconception among peers, which is the idea that on a prediction market, individuals are simply betting against another retail user in a vacuum. This suggests that predictions are a separate market from bookmakers.

In reality, the two are inextricably linked. Market makers on prediction markets typically derive their pricing directly from sharp bookmaker feeds. In many cases, the market makers providing liquidity on a prediction market are the exact same institutions running the sharp books. If the price moves at a major Asian bookmaker, the prediction market price will follow in milliseconds, regardless of what the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ thinks.

If Prediction Markets are just following sharp books, why do they often look like they have better pricing? It comes down to the market maker’s mandate.

On a traditional platform, a bookmaker can rely on its brand notoriety, significant player base, or slick UI to attract volume, allowing them to bake in a higher margin, or vig. Within predictions, market makers are forced to compete on price alone to capture volume.

When comparing a major prediction market to an individual sharp book, the prediction platform often wins simply because it forces market makers to offer their best price to stay relevant in a transparent environment.

Sometimes, prediction market pricing does become uncorrelated from the sharp books. However, this is rarely due to superior wisdom. Instead, it is usually driven by friction.

If high fees make a prediction market less efficient, the only people left on the site are users who are not price sensitive. This often happens when a prediction market is internally funnelled. For example, a user on a financial brokerage app might see a prediction market as a fun add-on, much like a gamification widget on a casino or sportsbook, and bet there despite better odds available on other books, simply because the money is already in their account. This creates a small environment where pricing does not reflect the global reality.

Outside of a better price, the product lacks the depth of an established bookmaker. Typically, this extends to parlays, and same game offerings, which have quickly become the lifeblood of recreational betting, as well as prop bets, niche markets on popular sports, and of course, the user experience. Sportsbooks have spent an enormous sum on gamifying the betting experience, ensuring the process is enjoyable, easy, and engaging. Prediction markets lack a lot of this investment, offering a stripped-back product.

Without a pricing edge, net of fees it will be very hard for prediction markets to compete with bookmakers as the product and marketing will never be on par.

The post Is there really a pricing revolution within prediction markets? appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.

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FeedConstruct takes exclusive data and streaming rights for Nicaragua’s Liga Primera

Published

6 hours ago

July 20, 2026

Wladimir P.

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Deal covers worldwide distribution of Liga Primera and Copa Primera content for sportsbooks and betting suppliers.

FeedConstruct has acquired exclusive worldwide streaming and data rights for Nicaragua’s top-tier football competitions, Liga Primera and Copa Primera.

The company said the agreement delivers start-to-finish coverage of every match across both competitions and expands its Central American football portfolio for sportsbook operators and providers using its data integration and streaming.

Ani Isakhanyan, Head of Rights and Content at FeedConstruct, stated, “Securing these exclusive rights is a highly valuable addition to our portfolio. Liga Primera and Copa Primera deliver the consistent football content that the global iGaming industry demands. This acquisition ensures our partners can offer comprehensive coverage of a rapidly emerging betting market.”

Allan J. Chamorro, Managing Partner at Apollo Sports Business Group, added, “Nicaragua has rapidly established itself as one of Central America’s fastest-growing football markets, attracting growing regional recognition and international commercial interest. Our partnership with FeedConstruct builds on that momentum by expanding the global distribution of Liga Primera and Copa Primera while powering sustainable commercial opportunities that strengthen clubs, elevate the competitions, and accelerate the long-term growth of the game.”

Liga Primera and Copa Primera are the main competitions in Nicaragua’s professional football calendar. FeedConstruct said the competitions are gaining regional recognition in Central America, supported by regular participation in CONCACAF tournaments.

The post FeedConstruct takes exclusive data and streaming rights for Nicaragua’s Liga Primera appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.

Cool Bus Shelter

The UAE Lottery backs Cool Bus Shelter initiative for outdoor workers

Published

15 hours ago

July 20, 2026

Wladimir P.

the-uae-lottery-backs-cool-bus-shelter-initiative-for-outdoor-workers

The UAE Lottery has partnered with SmartLife Foundation to support outdoor workers during the UAE summer, backing the Cool Bus Shelter initiative in Abu Dhabi on July 20, 2026.

The programme aligns with the UAE’s Midday Break rules, which require outdoor work to stop between 12:30 PM and 3:00 PM during peak heat. As part of the initiative, air-conditioned buses were stationed near labour sites to provide workers a place to rest before returning outdoors.

Volunteers from The UAE Lottery and SmartLife Foundation provided cold towels, cold water and drinks, according to the organisations. Workers also received portable rechargeable neck fans intended to provide additional cooling after the break.

Suzan Kazzi, Associate Director – Corporate Social Responsibility at Momentum- The UAE Lottery, said: “Outdoor workers are the backbone of our cities’ urban development, and initiatives like the Cool Bus Shelter ensure they receive the care and recognition they deserve during the most challenging months of the year. This is our small way of saying thank you and reminding them that their wellbeing truly matters”.

Abhijeet Oak, Vice President at SmartLife Foundation, added: “At SmartLife Foundation, we believe that protecting the wellbeing of outdoor workforce is a shared responsibility. Through the Cool Bus Shelter initiative, we are proud to collaborate with organizations such as The UAE Lottery and other community partners to create moments of comfort, appreciation and human connection that leave a lasting impact”.

The post The UAE Lottery backs Cool Bus Shelter initiative for outdoor workers appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.

Bally’s Intralot

Intralot Ireland Limited Signs Seven Year Contract Extension with Premier Lotteries Ireland

Published

16 hours ago

July 20, 2026

Wladimir P.

intralot-ireland-limited-signs-seven-year-contract-extension-with-premier-lotteries-ireland

Bally’s Intralot announced that its subsidiary Intralot Ireland Limited has signed a seven year contract extension, through November 2034, with Premier Lotteries Ireland (PLI). The agreement supports PLI’s continued operation of the Irish National Lottery through the remainder of its license period and reinforces Bally’s Intralot’s role as a trusted technology and services partner.

Under the terms of the agreement, Bally’s Intralot will modernise PLI’s technology ecosystem by deploying its next-generation LotosX Omni solution and PlayerX Player Account Management platform. The solution will provide a modern, cloud-based technology foundation supporting lottery operations across retail and digital channels, while incorporating advanced retailer management, instant games management, device management and content management capabilities. The agreement also includes comprehensive support and maintenance services, along with cloud operations and cybersecurity services for the first year, designed to ensure the long-term reliability, security and performance of PLI’s technology environment.

Through this partnership, Bally’s Intralot will support PLI in delivering a future-ready operating environment designed to enhance operational efficiency, accelerate innovation and strengthen player engagement. The modernisation will provide a secure, scalable and resilient platform that enables PLI to continue evolving its offerings while improving time-to-market implementation of new initiatives, along with maintaining the highest standards of reliability and service to players and retailers across Ireland.

“We are pleased to extend our partnership with Bally’s Intralot, a relationship built on trust, commitment to excellence, and shared ambition since 2014. As we look to the future, this agreement provides a strong platform for continued innovation and growth, ensuring we can deliver a modern, secure, and world-class National Lottery that places responsible play at its heart while continuing to benefit communities across Ireland,” said Cian Murphy, CEO of PLI.

Robeson Reeves, CEO of the Bally’s Intralot Group, said: “We are proud to extend our long-standing partnership with Premier Lotteries Ireland for a further seven years. This agreement reflects the strength of our technology and the trust we have built with PLI over more than a decade of collaboration. We look forward to continuing to support the National Lottery of Ireland and to delivering innovative, responsible gaming experiences to players across the country.”

The post Intralot Ireland Limited Signs Seven Year Contract Extension with Premier Lotteries Ireland appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.