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As the World Cup has begun, Betsson’s international betting data reveals a clear divergence between odds favourites and bettor behaviour. While the odds position Spain as the most likely winner, global betting activity tells a different story: Portugal is the most backed nation across Betsson’s 25 markets. Spain, despite having the lowest odds, ranks only fifth among bettors.

As the tournament kicks off, the familiar question resurfaces: who predicts tournaments most accurately — octopuses, banks, or betting companies? Regardless of where you stand, betting odds are ultimately less about predicting the winner and more about aggregating probability and market sentiment.

This year’s tournament will be the largest World Cup ever, featuring 48 teams, a halftime show and a return to a summer schedule for much of the world.

Ahead of the kickoff, Betsson has analysed odds movements and betting patterns from Europe to Latin America. According to current odds, Spain enters the competition as the favourite, followed by France and England. However, betting behaviour paints a different picture. Based on Betsson’s global betting volume, Portugal is the most backed team to win the tournament, ahead of France, the Netherlands and Argentina. Spain, despite being the odds favourite, ranks fifth among bettors.

“With a few days still to go, Portugal is currently the team we’ve received the most bets on. Higher odds can naturally draw attention, and our players clearly see Portugal as having a strong chance — and consider it a very attractive bet,” said Robin Olenius, Head of PR Betsson.

In the top scorer market, the alignment between odds and betting activity is stronger. Kylian Mbappé is both the favourite and the most backed player, followed by Harry Kane.

Both Mbappé and Lionel Messi also have the chance to challenge the all‑time World Cup scoring record, currently held by Germany’s Miroslav Klose with 16 goals in 24 matches (2002–2014). While Mbappé tops the odds at 7.00 and Messi has the third‑lowest odds to win the Golden Boot, betting patterns tell a different story — Messi is only the tenth most backed player.

Odds to Win Word cup 2026 (Betsson)

Spain: 5.60

France: 6.60

England: 8.00

Brazil: 9.00

Portugal: 9.00

Argentina: 10.00

Germany: 15.00

Netherlands: 21.00

Norway: 31.00

Belgium: 35.00

Most Backed Teams (Global Betting Stats, Betsson)

Portugal

France

Netherlands

Argentina

Spain

Brazil

Germany

England

Belgium

Norway

Most Backed Top Scorers

Kylian Mbappé

Harry Kane

Mikel Oyarzabal

Erling Haaland

Cristiano Ronaldo

Vinícius Júnior

Raphinha

Lamine Yamal

Ousmane Dembélé

Lionel Messi

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By David Nilsen, Editor-in-Chief, Kongebonus

European football rarely stays confined within national borders. Teams compete internationally, brands operate globally and sponsorship deals are designed for audiences far beyond a single market. Yet gambling regulation remains firmly national. When these two realities meet, tensions are almost inevitable.

That tension was visible during the UEFA Champions League fixture between Inter Milan and Bodø/Glimt at the Aspmyra Stadion in February, when the Italian club took to the pitch wearing Betsson.sport on its shirts. The Norwegian Gambling Authority later confirmed it had opened a case following the match, after concerns were raised that the branding could violate Norway’s strict marketing rules.

At first glance, the situation appears straightforward. Norway prohibits gambling marketing from any operator other than the state-owned Norsk Tipping and Norsk Rikstoto. Under this framework, foreign operators are not allowed to advertise or actively target Norwegian players. However, the details of this particular case are more complex.

The logo that appeared on Inter’s shirt was not a betting website, but Betsson.sport, a sports-focused platform linked to the company’s sponsorship activity in Italy. The site itself does not offer deposits or betting functionality. Instead, it operates as a sports content and partnership platform connected to the club’s commercial agreements.

This distinction matters because the regulatory context in Italy is very different from Norway’s. In 2018, Italy introduced the Decreto Dignità, one of Europe’s strictest gambling advertising bans. The legislation effectively eliminated traditional betting sponsorships across media and sport, even for licensed operators.

As a result, many brands have had to rethink how they maintain visibility in sports environments. Alternative branding, content platforms and sports-focused domains have become one of the few remaining routes available in a market where direct betting advertising is largely prohibited.

Seen through that lens, Betsson.sport is less an attempt to bypass regulation and more an example of how companies adapt to it.

When Inter Milan travelled to northern Norway, however, that Italian solution entered a completely different regulatory environment. Norway’s restrictions are not based on a broad ban on gambling advertising. Instead, they are built around the protection of a state monopoly. Only two operators are permitted to market gambling services domestically, and enforcement tools such as payment blocking and website restrictions are used to limit access to foreign operators.

The key question raised by the Inter match therefore becomes one of interpretation rather than simple legality. Does the presence of a brand associated with gambling, even when it links to a non-betting platform, constitute marketing towards Norwegian consumers?

It is a question regulators across Europe are likely to face more often as global sport continues to expand and sponsorship models become more complex.

Another factor worth noting is accessibility. Betsson does not currently operate in Norway, and access to its gambling platforms has been blocked for Norwegian users. This raises the issue of whether brand visibility alone, without a functional gambling product available to local players, should be considered the same as active marketing.

From a regulatory perspective, authorities may still decide that the brand association itself falls under advertising restrictions. That interpretation would be consistent with Norway’s broader efforts to protect the monopoly model and prevent indirect promotion of unlicensed operators.

At the same time, cases like this highlight the practical challenges regulators face when global sports competitions cross with national advertising rules. European tournaments bring together teams, sponsors and audiences from multiple jurisdictions, each operating under different regulatory philosophies.

Italy, for example, has taken a sweeping approach by banning gambling advertising across the board. Norway, meanwhile, has focused on maintaining exclusive rights for state operators while limiting the presence of international competitors.

Both systems are strict in their own way, but they are built on different principles.

When a club like Inter Milan competes internationally, the sponsorship arrangements negotiated within one regulatory system inevitably travel into another. This creates situations where branding designed to comply with one set of rules may still raise questions under another.

For players and fans, these nuances are rarely visible. What they see is simply a football shirt and a brand name. But for regulators, operators and industry observers, the case illustrates how complex the global gambling landscape has become.

None of this changes the underlying reality that gambling advertising remains one of the most tightly controlled areas of the digital economy. Governments are increasingly focused on consumer protection, and enforcement tools are becoming more sophisticated each year.

But as the Inter–Betsson example demonstrates, the real challenge lies not only in writing regulations but in applying them consistently in a world where sport, media and digital platforms operate across borders.

For the industry, it is another reminder that regulatory debates are rarely black and white. In many cases, they sit somewhere in between legal interpretation, practical enforcement and the global nature of modern sport.

The case opened by the Norwegian Gambling Authority and its conclusions may help clarify how situations like this should be interpreted going forward.

But as long as football continues to be played across borders, questions like these are unlikely to disappear any time soon.

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