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Brett Collson

PLAYOFF RACES, COVID, AND WINTER WEATHER WILL ALL FACTOR IN NFL’S WEEK 17 ODDS, ACCORDING TO THELINES.COM

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The penultimate week in the NFL season will offer some oddities, including four of the widest point spreads of the season. Late-season blowouts are to be expected as struggling teams finish out their years with little to play for, but pandemic concerns are throwing a wrench at oddsmakers, too, according to TheLines.com, which tracks odds in the U.S. regulated sports betting market.

As of Monday morning, the New England Patriots (-15.5), San Francisco 49ers (-15), Buffalo Bills (-14) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5) all are significant double-digit favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, and New York Jets, respectively, according to a consensus of that nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Caesars, and PointsBet. All four games feature matchups of postseason contenders against teams with little at stake, a common theme in the final weeks of every regular season.

But oddsmakers are also factoring the potential havoc that Covid could have on some team’s rosters, especially when key players are involved. That will keep scoring expectations relatively low, with 13 games with a projected point total of 46 or less. In fact, the matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and the Dallas Cowboys features an over/under of 50 points, which is just the second time in three weeks that a game has reached that threshold. By contrast, the first week of the NFL season featured five games with point totals of 50 points or more.

“Bettors need to be vigilant in the last few weeks of the season,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “Whether it is struggling teams playing out the string, Covid continuing to affect rosters, or inclement weather that can hold down scoring, oddsmakers are factoring in a lot of moving parts.”

The consensus point spreads for Week 17 games, as of Monday, Dec. 27:

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  • Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-14); over/under 44.5
  • New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6); over/under 38.5
  • Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Cincinnati Bengals; over/under 49
  • Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans; over/under 41
  • Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5); over/under 45.5
  • Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-15.5); over/under 42
  • Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7); over/under 38
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5) at New York Jets; over/under 45.5
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Football Team; over/under 45
  • Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6); over/under 45.5
  • Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-15); over/under 45
  • Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-5); over/under 50
  • Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5); over/under 42.5
  • Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Baltimore Ravens; over/under 46
  • Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7); over/under 48
  • Cleveland Browns (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers; over/under 41

To access updated lines and a betting guide for every NFL team, visit www.thelines.com/betting/nfl. To access Week 17 odds, visit www.thelines.com/nfl-week-17-odds-2021/.

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Brett Collson

CHIEFS RETURN TO FAVORITE STATUS AFTER WILD WEEKEND

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The Kansas City Chiefs are poised to return to the Super Bowl for the third straight season and have reclaimed their preseason spot as favorites following a wild Divisional Weekend, according to analysts TheLines, which tracks odds in the U.S. regulated sports betting market.

The championship games are set after one of the wildest weekends in NFL Playoffs history. The Kansas City Chiefs will play host to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC title game on Sunday with the Chiefs opening Sunday night as 6.5 favorites, according to a consensus of the nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Caesars, and PointsBet. The over/under opened at 53.5 points.

In the NFC title game, the Los Angeles Rams opened at -3.5 over the San Francisco 49ers with a total of 46.5 points in a rematch of a Week 18 game in which San Francisco won to qualify for the playoffs.

Last week, TheLines noted the historic nature of the odds — the Divisional Weekend showed a combined point spread of just 14 points in the four games. Historical data showed that it was the second-lowest combined points in history.

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The tight matchups played out in historic fashion — the road team, all underdogs, won the first three games and did it in similar fashion: kicking a walk-off field goal as time expired. The final game saw four lead changes in the final minutes between Kansas City and Buffalo, before the Chiefs prevailed in overtime.

“The wild nature of the Divisional Weekend will likely carry over to the Conference Championship weekend,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “With Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers now out of the playoffs, the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes return to their preseason position as Super Bowl favorites. But as these playoffs have shown, anything can happen.”

Kansas City opened the season as the preseason Super Bowl favorite at +400. Following the Divisional Weekend, Kansas City moved from +400 at this time last week to +120 heading into this weekend

The Rams are in the NFC Conference Championship for just the second time since 2001. They won the NFC during the 2018 season before losing to Brady and the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. They trail the Chiefs on the Super Bowl favorites list at +200 after opening the year at +1500.

San Francisco pulled off back-to-back underdog wins in beating the Dallas Cowboys and a stunning upset of Green Bay. The 49ers are now +450 to win the Super Bowl after opening the season at +1400.

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The Bengals knocked off the AFC’s top seeded Tennessee Titans to advance to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 1988. Cincinnati is now one win away from just their third Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. The Bengals opened the year as +15000 longshots for the Super Bowl title, but are now a consensus +800.

The current odds for each playoff team to win Super Bowl LVI as of Jan. 23 (with preseason odds):

  • Kansas City Chiefs +120 (+500)
  • Los Angeles Rams +200 (+1500)
  • San Francisco 49ers +450 (+1400)
  • Cincinnati Bengals +800 (+15000)

The consensus point spreads for the Conference Championship Weekend, as of Jan. 23:

  • Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5); over/under 53.5
  • San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5); over/under 46.5

To access updated NFL playoff lines and Super Bowl odds, and for more analysis, visit TheLines.com/odds/nfl-playoffs.

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TheLines.com: NFL Week 18 a challenge for oddsmakers, bettors

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NFL’S FIRST-EVER WEEK 18 WILL PROVIDE CHALLENGES FOR ODDSMAKERS THAT ARE UNIQUE TO THE SEASON’S FINAL WEEK, ACCORDING TO THELINES.COM

(LAS VEGAS) — The majority of playoff berths are clinched ahead of NFL’s first-ever Week 18, which can make games more unpredictable than a typical slate of games, according to TheLines.com, which tracks odds in the U.S. regulated sports betting market.

Week 18 games with playoff ramifications, though, can be more dependable for oddsmakers. The Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, the San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, and the win-or-go-home Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders are among those featuring teams fighting for their playoff lives or have significant seeding implications. Three of those games offer a spread of 5.5 points or less, according to a consensus of that nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Caesars, and PointsBet.

“The final week, in particular, brings a level of uncertainty not seen in any other week because the motivation for teams out of the playoff race is uncertain, and the top teams often rest their best players,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “Games with playoff implications tend to be more dependable, but even then you never quite know how teams respond to playing for their postseason lives. It’s uniquely challenging — and fun — for oddsmakers and bettors.”

The consensus point spreads for Week 18 games, as of Monday, Jan. 3:

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  • Kansas City Chiefs (-10) at Denver Broncos; over/under 44.5
  • Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles; over/under 41.5
  • Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-2.5); over/under 44
  • Green Bay Packers (-11) at Detroit Lions; over/under 46.5
  • Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5); over/under 44.5
  • Washington Football Team (-6.5) at New York Giants; over/under 38.5
  • Indianapolis Colts (-15.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars; over/under 44
  • Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5); over/under 42
  • Tennessee Titans (-10.5) at Houston Texans; over/under 43
  • New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Atlanta Falcons; over/under 40
  • New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-16.5); over/under 45
  • New England Patriots (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins; over/under 40
  • Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5); over/under 42.5
  • San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5); over/under 44.5
  • Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5); over/under 48
  • Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders; over/under 48.5

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Brett Collson

TOM BRADY THE FAVORITE TO WIN MVP AHEAD OF NFL WEEK 13

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The NFL is headed down its home stretch, but the league’s MVP is still very much up for grabs ahead of Week 13, according to TheLines.com, which tracks odds in the U.S. regulated sports betting market.

Tom Brady, the three-time MVP who has his Tampa Bay Buccaneers off to an 8-3 start, remains the favorite to win the NFL’s MVP award. The 44-year-old is being offered at +275, meaning bettors would win $275 for every $100 wagered, according to a consensus of that nation’s largest legal online sportsbooks — including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, Caesars, and PointsBet. Brady’s odds improved from +350 after the Bucs won a 38-31 shootout Sunday over the Indianapolis Colts.

A fourth MVP would inch Brady closer to the NFL record five awards that Peyton Manning won in his career. But the league’s other star quarterbacks have ideas of their own. The Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen is a consensus +500 pick, while reigning MVP and Green Bay Packers star Aaron Rodgers sits at +650. Former MVP Patrick Mahomes (+900) and Dak Prescott (+900) are in oddsmakers’ top five. Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (+1900) is the only non-quarterback to crack the Top 10.

“The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, so it isn’t a surprise that quarterbacks dominate the list,” said Brett Collson, lead analyst for TheLines.com. “Total league MVP awards is one of the few records Tom Brady doesn’t already hold, but a fourth MVP would put the record in reach. With a month left to play, though, there are still plenty of opportunities for others to make their case.”

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The consensus favorites to win the league’s MVP, as of Monday, Nov. 29:

  • Tom Brady +275
  • Josh Allen +500
  • Aaron Rodgers +650
  • Patrick Mahomes +900
  • Dak Prescott +1000
  • Kyler Murray +1300
  • Lamar Jackson +1600
  • Matthew Stafford +1600
  • Justin Herbert +1800
  • Jonathan Taylor +1900

The consensus point spreads for Week 13 games, as of Monday, Nov. 29:

  • Dallas Cowboys (-6) at New Orleans Saints; over/under 47.5
  • Indianapolis Colts (-8.5) at Houston Texans; over/under 46.5
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10) at Atlanta Falcons; over/under 50.5
  • New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-3); over/under 41.5
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at New York Jets; over/under 45.5
  • Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) at Chicago Bears; over/under 45.5
  • Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5); over/under 50.5
  • Minnesota Vikings (-7) at Detroit Lions; over/under 47
  • Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5); over/under 49.5
  • Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams (-13); over/under 48
  • Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers; over/under 44.5
  • San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Seattle Seahawks; over/under 46.5
  • Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5); over/under 47.5
  • New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-3); over/under 44.5

To access updated lines and a betting guide for every NFL team, visit www.thelines.com/betting/nfl. To access Week 13 odds, visit www.thelines.com/nfl-week-13-odds-2021/.

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