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The evolution of prediction markets

Published

2 weeks ago

July 1, 2026

As prediction markets evolve from niche forecasting tools into a multibillion-dollar mainstream asset class, the boundary between trading and high-volume iGaming infrastructure is rapidly dissolving. This Q&A feature w/ Jeevan Jeyaratnam, Chief Betting Officer at Abelson Sports examines whether prediction platforms can sustain their exponential growth independently, or if their long-term survival depends on adopting rigorous compliance, product proposition and geolocation standards of the established iGaming supply chain.

Are prediction markets a threat to the existing sports betting industry in the US and beyond, or can both coexist peacefully and profitably?

The answer to that question very much depends on where in the world you are. If I live in Birmingham, Alabama then prediction markets (PMs) are my only legal route to placing any kind of sportsbook wager. If I live in Birmingham, England then prediction markets (or as the Europeans understand them, betting exchanges) are very much playing second fiddle to the currently available, advanced sportsbook apps.

At present, prediction markets and legal sports betting firms, in the US, are operating on an uneven playing ground. Sportsbooks are state-regulated entities with tightly enforced rules, high tax rates and limited geographical scope. Prediction markets – in my opinion, because of their connection to the federal government’s coffers – have been given almost carte blanche to operate across state lines with no consideration for state legislative independence.

Governed by the federally controlled Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), prediction markets are able to offer sports contracts as well as other financial products to players in California, Georgia, New York and Texas. Sportsbooks, using this four-state example, can only offer sports betting opportunities to those in New York and that comes with a hefty 51% tax rate. The disparity here is stark and it is no wonder that investors and financiers believe that Predictions Markets have an opportunity to outperform sports betting operators. The problem of quite how PMs can fully monetise the product is beginning to be resolved with commission fees now being charged. How PMs can keep customers engaged is another concern, as there will be very few recreational winners from the pool of sharps that are seeding and trading these markets.

Given the current regulatory landscape, how can providers help platforms navigate the legal minefield of jurisdictions?

There’s a certain frontier spirit, certainly in the USA, around PMs at the moment. Platforms seem to be navigating with a “do it and apologise later” attitude, which has led to several high-profile lawsuits. Depending on where you look, the PMs or CFTC are either suing the state or vice versa.

It is a mess and as Congresswomen Dina Titus (D-NV) pointed out in an open letter recently, “Equally concerning is the allocation of agency resources to support this expanding litigation campaign.” Her point being that the CFTC is significantly understaffed and under resourced and that its efforts to support “multi-state litigation threatens to undermine the agency’s ability to fulfil its primary mandate.”

More recently, it would seem that the two biggest names, Kalshi and Polymarket, have decided that public slanging matches, where accusations around facilitating nefarious characters and criminal enterprises to trade on their platforms, fly either way.

This is hardly the type of behaviour anyone would expect from two companies operating within the auspices of the CFTC.

Until the situation settles and given the widespread support at federal level, it’s hard to imagine either of the two main players needing to take too much advice from others.

Following recent high-profile controversies around insider trading on prediction platforms, what sportsbook-grade KYC and behavioural monitoring tools are most effective at detecting the misuse of information?

One of the big concerns, currently not adequately addressed, revolves around KYC. Kalshi, for example, by way of its regulated status with the CFTC, has a strict KYC and AML code and a clear list of prohibited territories on its site.

Polymarket, on the other hand, is a crypto-native decentralised operator and as such has far fewer hurdles to jump as regards KYC. The USA site is now covered by CFTC regulation and is considered separate to the international version, which doesn’t require mandatory ID requirements to set up an account. This has led to significant and justified concerns over insider trading and AML. There are a number of tried and tested solutions that betting operators are required to use, but the same will also be true for PMs and the specific set of requirements they need to fulfil. For the sportsbooks that are also launching PMs, it would make synergistic sense for them utilise the same tools they have for the sportsbook.

What sort of retention strategies can be borrowed from the betting sector to increase engagement for prediction market operators?

The biggest hurdle for PMs is how they handle the inevitable churn as recreational players realise that they are consistently losing money to the big trading houses and sharp market makers. Only a fraction of customers can win and a small concentration of sharp clients will mop up pools, especially in sports contracts.

In other political or business markets there will be individuals or syndicates operating with the benefit of insider knowledge. Currently, the PMs product isn’t comparable in entertainment value to that of the sportsbooks. No concessions, no bonuses or many of the entertainment value add-ons that sportsbooks have adopted.

PMs have provided means for many who otherwise would have to use offshore books to experience wagering and they have done this at a very low transactional cost to the end user. That model will need to change if these firms are to meet their lofty valuations, but how they do that, while convincing customers that they can beat the sharps remains to be seen.

The post The evolution of prediction markets appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.

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Gamblers Connect Strengthens Trust with Launch of Verified Sources Panel

Published

30 minutes ago

July 13, 2026

Wladimir P.

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Gamblers Connect, the independent B2B iGaming media platform, has introduced a Verified Sources panel that appears at the bottom of every article, linking each factual claim directly to named primary documents hosted on the original source’s own domain.

The panel lists the specific sources consulted, identifies the issuing authority, and includes editorial notes explaining what has been verified and where the limits of the available evidence exist. Positioned immediately beneath the article body, each source is presented in the order it was consulted and includes the responsible individual or office where applicable.

Each entry also includes relevant disclosure tags drawn from the newsroom’s editorial taxonomy, and a direct hyperlink to the original document on the source’s own domain, allowing readers to verify the reporting in a single click.

The initiative responds to widespread practices in online publishing where sources are hidden, paraphrased or omitted altogether, leaving readers to rely on trust rather than independently verifiable evidence.

Luka Dimitrijevic, Partnerships & Operations Lead at Gamblers Connect, said: “Trust is not something a media outlet can declare. It is something the reader gives, and only once they can see the documents the story was built from. The Verified Sources panel exists so that verification is never more than one click away. If a claim in a story is worth making, the source behind it is worth linking to.”

The post Gamblers Connect Strengthens Trust with Launch of Verified Sources Panel appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.

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Esports World Cup: Level Up Returns to Prime Video June 26 with Season Two

Published

30 minutes ago

July 13, 2026

Wladimir P.

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Esports World Cup: Level Upreturns for its second season on June 26, with all five episodes dropping that day exclusively on Prime Video. Directed by Emmy-winning filmmaker R.J. Cutler (Martha (Netflix), Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry (Apple TV)), the five-part docuseries goes inside the human stories behind the world’s largest esports competition, following players, Clubs and families through the pressure and ambition of the 2025 Esports World Cup.

Set in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, during the seven-week event, the new season follows the chase for the $70 million prize pool and the EWC Club Championship, while showing the personal journeys at the heart of the competition. The series captures what it takes to compete on a global stage where one match can change a career, a season can define a Club, and a single moment can turn a player into a star.

Produced by This Machine (a part of Sony Pictures Television), with director R.J. Cutler, showrunner John Dorsey and executive producers Jane Cha Cutler, Trevor Smith, Elise Pearlstein and Mark Blatty all returning for the second season, Esports World Cup: Level Up takes a vérité-style approach to esports, capturing the sacrifice, stakes, and rising fame of the world’s top competitive gamers.

Featured players include Jake “Boaster” Howlett (Fnatic; VALORANT), Vivi “Vivian” Indrawaty (Team Vitality; MLBB), Kasimili “Soka” Tongamoa (Team Falcons; Call of Duty: Warzone), Xiao Hai (KuaiShou Gaming; Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves) and Garidmagnai “bLitz” Byambasuren (Mongolz; Counter-Strike). To bring the players’ personal stories to the forefront, the film’s crew was on set in Riyadh for seven weeks and also traveled to locations across the U.K., U.S. and Indonesia for rare at-home visits.

Standout storylines woven throughout the series include:

Magnus Carlsen (Team Liquid, Chess) – Widely considered the greatest chess player ever, Carlsen faces the isolation of dominance, with no traditional peaks left to conquer. His story follows his shift into esports, where a new generation of challengers awaits.

Boaster (Fnatic, Valorant) – As Valorant debuts at the event, the British competitor’s journey from aspiring actor to title contender shows there’s no single path to success, shaped by resilience through personal and professional setbacks.

Xiao Hai (KSG, Street Fighter) – A reigning champion shaped by strict discipline, Xiao Hai was competing against adults by age six. Now a father, he balances global competition with family life.

Vivian (Team Vitality, Mobile Legends: Bang Bang) – Competing for a life-changing prize, Vivian’s story centers on overcoming recent setbacks and confronting childhood trauma.

The Mongolz & bLitz (Counter-Strike 2) – Led by their star player bLitz, this grassroots Mongolian team has risen from obscurity to national prominence, becoming symbols of pride and perseverance.

Soka (Team Falcons, Call of Duty: Warzone) – The reigning champion faces pressure on multiple fronts, dealing with rivalries from former teammates while navigating a turbulent home life.
Coach ArSy (Team Liquid, Mobile Legends: Bang Bang) – Offering a rare coaching perspective, ArSy draws on a difficult upbringing to lead and inspire his team’s pursuit of redemption.

“Level Up captures the human side of what we are building with the Esports World Cup,” said Ralf Reichert, CEO, Esports Foundation. “EWC creates the stage: the best games, the best Clubs, the best players, life-changing stakes and moments that bring together a global gaming community of billions. The documentary takes you closer to the people inside those moments: their pressure, their ambition, their families and the stories that make esports meaningful to a new generation.”

“This next chapter deepens our exploration of a global phenomenon that is as much about human ambition and identity as it is about competition,” said Cutler. “Esports is one of the most dynamic cultural movements of our time. In season two, we continue to chronicle not just the competition, but the lives, dreams, and sacrifices of the players at the center of it, revealing a world that is both intensely personal and globally resonant.”

Around those player journeys, the series also captures the wider cultural energy of the Esports World Cup, where sport, music, entertainment and gaming meet. In addition to elite competition, Level Up showcases moments from a star-studded lineup of musical artists and athletes, including opening headliner Post Malone, who shows off his gaming skills backstage; grandmaster Magnus Carlsen, who triumphs in his first chess esports event; and football icon Cristiano Ronaldo, who ushers the Club Championship trophy to the stage in a dramatic closing ceremony.

The magnitude of the Esports World Cup is also seen through the reactions of some of the world’s biggest sports and entertainment figures, including reigning F1 champion Lando Norris; Brazilian football legends Ronaldo Nazario and Kaká, who go one-on-one in an EA FC showmatch; professional footballer Alisha Lehmann; skateboarder Tony Hawk; and tennis star Nick Kyrgios, who stated: “The crowd, the atmosphere, is literally better than Wimbledon or any Grand Slam.”

The Esports World Cup 2025 marked a defining moment in competitive gaming. In its second year, EWC reached 750 million viewers worldwide and generated 350 million hours watched, with peak concurrent viewership of nearly 8 million during the League of Legends at EWC ’25 tournament. Coverage was delivered across 28 platforms through 97 broadcast partners and more than 800 channels in 35 languages. Twenty-five tournaments spanning 24 games featured more than 2,000 players representing approximately 200 Clubs from over 100 countries.

The 2026 edition of the Esports World Cup will be held in Paris, France from July 6 through August 23, as the top Clubs in the world compete for $75 million and the 2026 EWC Club Championship trophy.

The post Esports World Cup: Level Up Returns to Prime Video June 26 with Season Two appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.

AGLC license

Tonybet Secures Alberta iGaming License as Regulated Market Opens

Published

30 minutes ago

July 13, 2026

Wladimir P.

tonybet-secures-alberta-igaming-license-as-regulated-market-opens

Tonybet, an international iGaming operator already licensed in Ontario and Kahnawake, today announced that it has received an iGaming license from the Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis Commission (AGLC), clearing the company to operate in Alberta’s regulated online gaming market.

The license allows Tonybet to enter Alberta, Canada’s second province to introduce a competitive, multi-operator iGaming market following Ontario’s launch in 2022. It also extends Tonybet’s Canadian footprint, reinforcing the company’s position as one of the most broadly licensed operators in the country.

Alberta’s regulated market represents a significant opportunity. The province has an estimated population of nearly 5 million, a strong sports culture, and a regulatory framework designed to channel existing online gaming activity into a licensed, player-protected environment. Tonybet intends to bring the same localized approach that has driven its growth in Ontario – combining regionally relevant sports betting markets, responsible gaming tools, and dedicated customer support – to Alberta from day one.

“Alberta is taking the right approach – building a regulated market that puts player protection and operational standards at the center from the start. That’s exactly the kind of environment we want to operate in. We’ve spent years proving in Ontario that you can grow a business and maintain the highest compliance standards at the same time – registrations and gross gaming revenue in the province both grew by 52% in 2025, with responsible gaming embedded in that success rather than working against it. Securing this license means we can bring the same commitment to Alberta, and we plan to be fully operational in the market,” said Dmitry Arabuli, CEO of Tonybet.

Tonybet has already begun preparations for its Alberta launch, including platform localization, integration with the province’s centralized self-exclusion system, and commercial onboarding with the Alberta iGaming Corporation (AiGC).

The post Tonybet Secures Alberta iGaming License as Regulated Market Opens appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.