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Football is back: Man City are hot EPL favorites, but look to the Saudi Pro League for betting value
- Cloudbet data analysis identifies surprises in Saudi league title odds
- Saudi Pro League bolstered over summer transfer season by top international talent
August 9, 2023 — Manchester City are the overwhelming favorites to win a fourth straight EPL title, but for value, analysis from leading crypto casino and sportsbook Cloudbet suggests football fans should look further afield – to Saudi Arabia.
Thanks to the influx of top names from the EPL and other European leagues, the Saudi Pro League has emerged as a competitive space for bettors, according to research by Cloudbet traders. The four teams recently bought by the state’s Public Investment Fund are all in with a chance of the title, according to the study, which looked at positive or negative changes from the transfers to team ratings.
Newly promoted Al Ahli have made the most impactful moves, with an expected addition of more than 2.5 goals per game, the most of any team in the league. Allan Saint-Maximin will add the equivalent of 0.65 of a goal per game, supported by strong contributions from fellow transfers Riyad Mahrez, Roberto Firmino and Franck Kessie, according to Cloudbet.
Even though they’re new to the top division, Cloudbet’s analysis has given Al Ahli Saudi the fourth-highest team rating in the league, belying the squad’s title odds (18.5/+1754). That’s not the only surprise: Cloudbet’s team ratings have current league third-favorites Al Hilal ahead of second favorites Al Nassr FC.
Saudi Pro League Team Rating Changes
| Ranking | Team | 2022/23 rating* | 2023/24 rating* | Title odds |
| 1. | Al Ittihad | 0.20 | 0.0 (top) | 2.87 (+187) |
| 2. | Al Hilal | 0.35 | 0.10 | 3.81 (+281) |
| 3. | Al Nassr | 0.00 (top) | 0.15 | 3.63 (+263) |
| 4. | Al Ahli | 1.10 | 0.30 | 18.5 (+1754) |
| 5. | Al Ettifaq | 1.20 | 1.65 | 18.5 (+1754) |
Data analysis and odds courtesy of Cloudbet (current as of Aug. 9, 2023)
* Cloudbet’s team rating: The top team’s rank is denoted by 0.0 with the other team scores reflecting their goal per game handicap
“Taking last season’s team ratings as a starting point, we added on to each club the positive impact of this summer’s transfers,” a spokesperson from Cloudbet said. “The team ratings that we’ve devised do cast a different light on what the odds indicate. There’s plenty of value for the savvy bettor to unlock this season.”
Cloudbet’s ratings and odds do agree on the main title contender: Last year’s champion, Al Ittihad from Jeddah. This summer, Al Ittihad added Karim Benzema, N’Golo Kante and Fabinho, who are expected to add 1.7 goals per game to a squad that already boasts Abderrazak Hamdallah, the Golden Boot winner in three of the last five years.
“We decided that the addition of Karim Benzema was the single most impactful transfer of the summer,” the Cloudbet spokesperson said. “One thing to be taken into consideration, though, is whether this will destabilize a settled, winning team.”
Title contenders
Last year’s runners up Al Nassr have made good signings in Marcelo Brozovic and Sadio Mane (0.8 goal per game, between the pair), but a lot will depend on whether Cristiano Ronaldo has regained his fitness over the summer. The Portuguese star looked out of shape and decidedly off pace towards the end of last season.
Al Hilal may see an increase in yellow cards as a result of Ruben Neves and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic joining, but their midfield can now hold its own against almost any club in world football. Neves, Milinikovic-Savic, and Malcom are worth a 1.4 goal uplift to the team, according to Cloudbet research. With Odion Ighalo bolstering the supply lines up front, the club should run close to last year’s winners.
“We expect to see Saudi Arabia’s famous old rivalry between its two most-storied clubs, Riyadh’s Al Hilal and Jeddah’s Al Ittihad, play out once again,” the Cloudet spokesperson said.
Al Ahli is the fourth team to benefit from the Saudi Public Investment Fund millions. The addition of Mahrez, Saint-Maximin, Firmino, and Kessie plus Edouard Mendy in goal, and Matthias Jaissle as coach, has bolstered their team by close to 3 extra goals.
Looking at the rest of the field – Steven Gerrard’s Al-Ettifaq FC may struggle beyond mid table. They were defensively weak last season and now need to face sides with the likes of Benzema, Firmino, Jota, and Saint-Maximin up top.
In fact, odds on the non PIF teams have lengthened versus those teams, so while there’s definitely value in the betting, it does look like a four-way contest.
EvenBet Gaming
Behind EvenBet Gaming’s strategic evolution into casino
EvenBet Gaming’s CEO, Dmitry Starostenkov, speaks to EEGaming about the company’s expansion into the casino vertical, what drove the decision, what it took to build, and what it means for operators looking to grow beyond a single product.
EvenBet has spent more than two decades building its reputation in poker. What told you the time was right to move into casino?
We kept having the same conversation with partners who trusted our poker infrastructure, asking whether we could support them on the casino side too. For a long time, our answer was to point them elsewhere but, with competition intensifying, that became harder to justify.
But there’s a wider shift happening too. Operators are under real pressure to extract more value from their existing player base. Acquisition costs are rising, regulated markets are tightening, and the days of building a sustainable business on a single vertical are gone. Operators who are growing have found more ways to extend player value across their full product offering, and that requires purpose-built infrastructure.
We have the technical foundation and understand the player behaviour. The question became when to make the move, and how to do it in a way that was genuinely an improvement on what was already out there.
Moving from the single poker vertical into a full casino platform is a significant undertaking. Where did the product challenges actually lie?
The single player account sounds simple until you’re actually building it. Shared balance, unified player profile, seamless movement between poker and casino all create complexity that compounds quickly. The other challenge was scope. A game aggregator covering 15,000 titles across 230-plus providers has the potential to create real infrastructure problems. We had to build something that could handle that scale without becoming unwieldy for operators to use. And we didn’t want to compromise the poker product to get there either – that was non-negotiable. Everything had to work as one system, not two products stapled together.
How does cross-vertical conversion work, and why does that matter so much to operators right now?
The friction in moving a player between verticals has always been the drop-off point. Separate logins, separate wallets and separate experiences are all different reasons for a player to disengage. When that’s removed, the conversion happens more naturally.
What makes the difference is having product mechanics that actively pull players across. One Click Poker removes the traditional lobby entirely, which has historically been the biggest barrier for casino players who find poker intimidating or unfamiliar. Spins Poker goes further by taking player-versus-player gameplay and wrapping it in slot-style mechanics, so the experience feels native to a casino player from the first session.
In the other direction, casino rewards sitting inside the poker environment give poker players a natural reason to explore. It becomes a two-way pipeline rather than a one-way push, and operators can see that working in the data. That’s what cross-vertical conversion looks like when the product architecture supports it properly.
What does EvenBet Gaming now offer an operator that they genuinely can’t get elsewhere?
Most casino platforms don’t come with a serious poker product attached, and most poker providers don’t have a credible casino offering. We’re in a fairly unique position in that we can genuinely deliver both, and the integration between the two is real and not just a partnership held together by an API. In terms of who this is for, it’s operators who want to grow. Whether that’s a new entrant who needs a clean, fast route to market, or an established operator who has a casino product but knows they’re missing a revenue stream without poker. We’re positioned to offer that market entry and scalability, without compromising quality.
The post Behind EvenBet Gaming’s strategic evolution into casino appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.
casino entertainment
Plaza Hotel & Casino books The Tony Bennett Experience for Aug. 8 in Las Vegas
Plaza Hotel & Casino will host The Tony Bennett Experience for a one-night performance on Saturday, Aug. 8 at 7 p.m. in its classic Vegas showroom, the downtown Las Vegas operator said in a release.
The show features Las Vegas headliner and tribute artist Tom Stevens and his Jazz Ensemble, and is billed as a celebration of Tony Bennett’s 100th Anniversary. Plaza said Stevens will be backed by a four-piece band and perform songs including “I Left My Heart in San Francisco” and “The Way You Look Tonight.”
Tickets are on sale through the Plaza Hotel & Casino website.
The post Plaza Hotel & Casino books The Tony Bennett Experience for Aug. 8 in Las Vegas appeared first on Americas iGaming & Sports Betting News.
EU Taxes
Malta Prepares For EU Budget Battle To Stave Off Gambling Levy
Malta’s Prime Minister has said his nation will veto any attempts by the EU to introduce a bloc-wide online gambling levy, threatening to place the industry at the centre of febrile European politics.
Robert Abela has told Malta’s parliament that he would use his nation’s member state veto to block the passage of the next EU budget, if a proposed gambling levy is included.
The budget, formally known as the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF), lays out how the EU will spend its €2trn budget from 2028 to 2034.
The prospect of adding a continent-wide tax to the budget remains only a proposal, but the idea has heavyweight backing.
Vice-president of the European Parliament Victor Negrescu is spearheading these efforts, arguing that a fast-growing digital industry that generates billions in revenue should be subject to EU-level taxation.
Negrescu says that the levy could generate between €2-4bn every year.
“This industry fully benefits from the EU’s single market, digital infrastructure and crossborder access, but operates under fragmented rules, unequal taxation and insufficient enforcement,” he said.
The online gambling sector might well quibble with the specifics of these claims.
The idea that it “fully benefits” from the EU single market may have been unassailably true in the point-of-supply era, but the subsequent fragmentation of national rules that Negrescu refers to has significantly complicated that picture.
Nevertheless, backing for the levy from a senior European politician has naturally spooked the industry and its primary champion within the EU, Malta.
The levy would be so damaging to Malta’s economic interests that it is willing to use its most powerful EU instrument by executing a veto in the European Council in order to block the budget from being approved.
That would likely plunge the island nation into the centre of a political firestorm, but recent history suggests that smaller EU nations and their allies can successfully disrupt budget negotiations.
During discussions over the 2020 EU budget, Poland and Hungary successfully secured concessions after they both threatened to veto the MFF over rule-of-law requirements.
Malta will also hope to rely on support from the Friends of Cohesion, an informal alliance of 16 nations concerned with regional development, of which it is a part.
Negrescu’s pledge to pair his levy with a “clear EU directive against illegal and unlicensed platforms” is unlikely to satisfy the online gambling industry, despite growing complaints of a rampant black market from a number of quarters.
Malta strikes again
In simple terms, Malta is seeking to protect an industry which accounts for 10 percent of its gross domestic product.
The nation has shown a clear willingness to ignore the EU’s wishes in order to shield the many gaming firms that host their headquarters within its borders.
Most notably, the creation of Bill 55 has successfully protected local companies from having to repay hundreds of millions of euros in player refund settlements.
Ongoing cases before the Court of Justice of the European Union suggest that Europe’s top judges will soon rule against Bill 55, which is now Article 56A of Malta’s gambling act.
The European Commission also launched infringement proceedings against Malta over the provision
Tax troubles.
There are so far no specifics on how the levy would be calculated or what value it would be set at, but beyond Malta an additional levy would also be extremely challenging for operators in European markets already struggling with high tax burdens.
This includes the Netherlands, where a government report released this week has shown that staggered increases to taxes of 37.8 percent of gross gambling revenue (GGR) have failed to deliver any benefit to the country’s budget.
Even a relatively slight increase to this tax rate could send more operators scurrying out the market and see channelisation dive further than its current rate of 55 percent.
Nations like France, where online betting is taxed at 59.3 percent of GGR, or Portugal, with its 8 percent turnover tax on online sports betting, would also feel an impact.
Negotiations over the contents of the EU budget are set to continue for several months, with the approval process expected to be completed in late 2026 or early 2027.
Leaders in the Council of Europe have agreed to come to a preliminary deal on the MFF by October, according to a coordinated statement issued earlier this month.
Malta’s devout opposition to a possible gambling levy is just one of a range of issues under discussion, including a stark divide between nations such as Germany, which favour spending cuts, and the Friends of Cohesion, who want additional cash for agriculture and regional funding.
The post Malta Prepares For EU Budget Battle To Stave Off Gambling Levy appeared first on EE Gaming | Global iGaming & Tech Intelligence Hub.
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