The debate over banning fixed-odds betting in Brazil has gained momentum following the publication of an article by José Francisco Manssur and Marcelo Damato, which draws a direct parallel between the current political movement and the historical Prohibition in the United States implemented in 1920.

According to the authors, the attempt to ban a market that has already been regulated is likely to repeat well-known mistakes: rather than eliminating the activity, such a measure would encourage the growth of the black market, strengthen criminal organizations, and reduce the State’s ability to control and supervise the sector.

The analogy is not merely rhetorical,it serves as a warning about the unintended consequences of decisions driven more by political appeal than by practical evidence.

The article highlights that Brazil has already structured a robust regulated market, with 84 companies authorized to operate fixed-odds betting, each having paid BRL 30 million in licensing fees, in addition to making equivalent investments to comply with regulatory requirements.

These requirements range from maintaining a physical presence in the country and governance structures to implementing advanced systems for user behavior monitoring, anti-money laundering measures, and responsible gambling policies.

The role of the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA) is also emphasized, particularly its success in blocking around 30,000 illegal websites, demonstrating the State’s capacity to act effectively when the market operates within legal boundaries.

Another central point of the argument is the economic impact of a potential ban.

Manssur and Damato estimate that the country could lose approximately BRL 15 billion in 2026 in direct and indirect tax revenues alone, in addition to jeopardizing jobs and investments already made.

There is also a significant risk of large-scale litigation, with companies seeking compensation for losses resulting from an abrupt regulatory shift.

In this context, the article raises a critical question about Brazil’s image among international investors: by opening, regulating, and then prohibiting a sector within a few years, the country would signal a high level of legal uncertainty, potentially affecting not only iGaming but the overall business environment.

Finally, the authors challenge the narrative that betting is one of the main drivers of household indebtedness in Brazil. Based on data from LCA Consultoria, the article points out that betting expenditures account for only 0.46% of household consumption, a relatively low share compared to other expenses.

Therefore, attributing indebtedness solely to the sector would be an oversimplification of a broader structural issue involving expensive credit, inflation, and low financial literacy.

The conclusion is clear: prohibition would not solve the problems it aims to address and would instead create new economic and social risks.

Betting usage in Brazil and its impact on financial behavior

Recent data from a survey conducted by Datafolha provides deeper insight into the profile of Brazilian bettors and the role of betting in household finances.

The study, which surveyed more than 2,000 individuals across 117 municipalities, indicates that around 10% of Brazilians use online betting platforms or casinos.

Among these users, nearly half (46%) report betting as a way to generate additional income, particularly to help cover monthly expenses.

This finding reflects a significant shift in perception, as betting is no longer viewed solely as entertainment but also, for part of the population, as an economic tool.

Despite this motivation, the direct impact of betting on indebtedness appears to be limited when analyzed in isolation.

Only 1% of respondents reported using money allocated for essential bills to place bets, suggesting that extreme risk behavior remains relatively rare.

Experts, including representatives from Fundação Getulio Vargas, acknowledge that betting can contribute to indebtedness but emphasize that it is only one of several factors.

Elements such as access to credit, high interest rates, inflation, and income levels remain far more significant drivers of financial distress.

At the same time, international studies, such as those conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research, highlight indirect effects.

According to these analyses, every dollar spent on betting tends to reduce savings or investment in other financial assets, indicating a substitution effect in resource allocation.

In Brazil, however, LCA’s findings reinforce that betting’s share of household budgets remains comparable to categories such as alcohol consumption, which helps contextualize and moderate claims that the sector is a primary cause of indebtedness.

The overall picture is therefore more complex and calls for a balanced, data-driven regulatory approach.

Caixa’s retreat and the conflict between economic strategy and public policy

One of the most emblematic developments during this period was the decision by Caixa Econômica Federal to postpone the launch of its betting platform until 2027.

The state-owned bank had already secured a federal license and paid BRL 30 million to operate in the regulated market, as well as developed a business plan projecting revenues of up to BRL 18 billion over two years.

Nevertheless, the project was halted due to political pressure from the federal government, which has adopted a more cautious,and in some cases critical,stance toward the expansion of betting in the country.

This retreat exposes a clear misalignment between the institution’s commercial strategy and the government’s political direction.

While Caixa viewed the betting market as an opportunity to diversify revenue streams and compete with private operators while also combating illegal gambling, segments of the government began framing the sector’s rapid growth as a public health issue.

This shift in narrative created uncertainty and ultimately stalled an initiative that was already in an advanced stage of implementation.

Beyond the immediate financial impact, the decision raises broader concerns about regulatory predictability in Brazil.

The fact that a state-owned entity stepped back after fulfilling all legal requirements and investing in the sector may be interpreted as a sign of instability by private investors.

The case has also triggered reactions from industry associations and is being reviewed by oversight bodies such as the Tribunal de Contas da União, reinforcing the perception that the institutional environment is still evolving.

Political environment: between prohibition and regulation

Brazil’s political landscape regarding betting is marked by ambiguity and competing narratives. On one side, there are factions within the government and Congress advocating for stricter measures, including the possibility of a full ban on fixed-odds betting.

On the other, key political leaders acknowledge that such a measure would likely lack sufficient support to pass. José Guimarães, for example, has stated that Congress appears more willing to discuss regulatory adjustments than to eliminate the sector altogether.

This divide reflects a broader tension between social concerns and economic interests.

The government has implemented measures to restrict access to betting among vulnerable populations, such as blocking beneficiaries of social programs and introducing self-exclusion tools.

At the same time, it maintains the sector’s regulatory and tax framework, recognizing its importance for revenue generation and market formalization.

The development of new public policies aimed at preventing gambling addiction also suggests a middle-ground approach that seeks to mitigate risks without dismantling the industry.

In Congress, debates are expected to intensify in the coming months, with legislative proposals addressing both restrictions and further regulatory refinements.

The prevailing perception, however, is that Brazil will continue advancing within a regulated model, albeit with adjustments and stricter oversight.

While short-term uncertainty remains, the structural direction points toward consolidation rather than elimination.

Industry events gain momentum in 2026 and expand regulatory debate in Brazil

The iGaming events calendar in Brazil continues to expand significantly in 2026, consolidating the country as a major hub for industry discussions in Latin America.

Following the BiS SiGMA South America 2026, held from April 6 to 9 at the Transamerica Expo Center, the calendar has been extended with new strategic gatherings throughout the year.

Among them are the BiS SiGMA Brasília, scheduled for June 2–3, and the BiS SiGMA João Pessoa, planned for September (dates yet to be confirmed).

These events reflect a clear trend toward decentralization and deeper engagement, bringing discussions on regulation, innovation, and industry development beyond traditional hubs.

In Brasília, the choice of the federal capital underscores the importance of institutional dialogue at a critical moment for the market’s regulatory future.

Meanwhile, the João Pessoa edition is expected to focus on state lotteries and regional market dynamics, broadening the understanding of Brazil’s internal diversity.

At the same time, the CGS Brasília 2026 is positioning itself as a key executive forum, taking place on May 5–6 at the Hotel Royal Tulip Brasília.

The event will gather C-level executives, operators, suppliers, and regulators for an extensive agenda of thematic panels.

Key topics include the impact of regulation, responsible advertising, prevention of illicit activities, legal certainty, and the role of prediction markets.

The program also features discussions on compliance, civil liability, and communication strategies, along with networking sessions and technical workshops.

The scale and diversity of these events highlight not only the sector’s growth but also its increasing maturity, with a stronger focus on governance, regulation, and sustainability.

In a still uncertain political environment, these conferences play a central role as platforms for strategic alignment among industry stakeholders.

Altenar strengthens institutional presence in Latin America through CIBELAE membership

On the corporate front, one of the notable developments was the entry of Altenar into CIBELAE (Corporación Iberoamericana de Loterías y Apuestas del Estado). Founded in 1988, the organization brings together lottery operators and regulatory bodies from across Latin America, Spain, and Portugal, serving as a key forum for collaboration, best practices, and the promotion of responsible gaming standards.

Altenar’s membership represents a strategic step in consolidating its presence in regulated markets, particularly in Latin America, where rapid growth is accompanied by challenges such as regulatory fragmentation, evolving compliance requirements, and the need for strong localization.

By joining CIBELAE, the company enhances its engagement with institutional stakeholders, contributing to the sustainable development of the industry.

According to the company, its competitive edge lies in the flexibility and scalability of its technology, enabling operators to adapt quickly to regulatory changes and local market conditions.

This positioning is especially relevant in Brazil, where the regulatory framework is still evolving and requires solutions that balance strict compliance with operational efficiency.

Furthermore, participation in CIBELAE reinforces Altenar’s commitment to international standards of integrity and collaboration, aligning with organizations such as the World Lottery Association.

This move reflects a broader industry trend toward greater institutional integration between global players and local markets, aimed at ensuring sustainable growth in an increasingly regulated and competitive environment.